Taking stock of the 2024 GLA election: The more things change, the more they stay the same

Taking inventory of the 2024 GLA election: The extra issues change, the extra they keep the identical

By Clémence Leveque 

On the 2nd of Might 2024, alongside different regional elections throughout England and Wales, voters went to the polls to elect the Better London Authority (GLA) for the seventh time since its creation in 1999 by Tony Blair’s authorities. Inspecting these outcomes can assist us perceive the altering political geography of the capital forward of polling day on the UK normal election, which adopted the Might locals unexpectedly shortly.

The Mayor of London, with the most important direct mandate within the UK, gives management for the capital, promotes financial improvement and the well-being of Londoners. The much less well-known Meeting holds the Mayor to account, notably by having the ability to veto his finances by a 2/3 majority.

Up till the 2021 election – due in 2020 however postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic – the Mayor had been elected below the supplementary vote (SV) system. Voters might specific two preferences, which required candidates to enchantment throughout occasion traces to win the second preferences of different candidates’ supporters. The Meeting was – and stays – elected with the Extra Member system (AMS): 14 members are elected with First-Previous-the-Put up to signify “super-constituencies” whereas 11 are London-wide members, elected by way of a PR-list system to make sure a balanced illustration of political forces within the capital.

Following the Elections Act 2022, the London Mayor was elected utilizing FPTP for the primary time. Though the Conservatives’ said intention was to simplify the voting system, some feared the change would weaken the mayor’s mandate and legitimacy to behave because the capital’s spokesperson. Voter ID necessities have been additionally launched, allegedly to deal with electoral fraud, however created the chance of additional lowering an already low turnout and disenfranchising underprivileged communities in London’s inner-city areas. Each adjustments have been seen by the opposition as serving to Conservative success in Labour-dominated territory.

Removed from the scandal-ridden contests between Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson in 2008-12 or Sadiq Khan and Zac Goldsmith in 2016, the Might 2024 contest was a low-key election. 13 candidates competed to turn out to be mayor. In 2021, to cease the unfold of Covid, diminished nomination necessities had led to twenty candidates standing, the mayoral poll paper being modified and a rise within the variety of spoilt poll papers.

Broadly predicted to win a 3rd time period, though with various margins of victory (from 13 to 27%), Khan ran a quiet marketing campaign. Whereas Labour feared this seemingly win would spur voter apathy, hypothesis round an upcoming normal election drew voters’ and occasion strategists’ consideration away from the London contest. Within the occasion, turnout was solely barely down (40.5%) on 2021 (42%) and 2016 (46%).

Regardless of barely mentioning her nationwide occasion – a method which might be repeated throughout Nice Britain within the normal election marketing campaign weeks later – Conservative Mayoral candidate Susan Corridor shared its contempt for ‘woke’ London. The primary feminine candidate for one of many predominant events endorsed extremist views on social media, linked Khan’s Muslim religion with terrorism, criticised his anti-crime file, unfold misinformation on the Extremely-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), and appeared out-of-touch with Londoners’ values and issues. Whereas outpolling her nationwide occasion, she achieved the Conservative’s lowest vote share since 2000 (32.7%).

Regardless of lacklustre approval rankings, Sadiq Khan did win a 3rd time period, though with the bottom proportion of votes since 2000 (43.8%), a direct consequence of the transfer to FPTP. Voters engaged in tactical voting, as evidenced by the slight improve from his variety of 1st preferences in 2021 (40%). Highlighting the chance that FPTP might give the Tories an opportunity to win, Khan closely focused Remainers and tried to squeeze Inexperienced and Lib Dem voters. The Inexperienced vote share was down two proportion factors on 2021 whereas it stayed the identical within the listing vote, the place voters often specific their true desire. FPTP additionally impacted independents and smaller occasion candidates who garnered 8% of the vote in opposition to 12% in 2021.

Khan elevated his margin of victory from 4.7 proportion factors in 2021 to 11 in 2024. Swings in his favour have been noticeable each in interior and outer London. Regardless of the Conservatives’ by-election victory in Uxbridge in July 2023 (by simply 495 votes), there was no motorist backlash in opposition to the ULEZ. Khan additionally managed to win the assist of each Jewish (e.g. Barnet and Camden) and Muslim voters (e.g. Metropolis and East) regardless of Labour’s ambivalent stance on the Israel-Hamas battle. It seems that taking a powerful stance on controversial points just isn’t essentially a vote-loser.

The South-West constituency gives an fascinating case research. The Conservatives misplaced management of Richmond and Kingston councils in 2018 to the Lib Dems, however stored the seat in 2021 – which they’d held since 2000 –, whereas their mayoral candidate, Shaun Bailey, got here first. Since then, their additional native decline has echoed their nationwide unpopularity: in 2022, they received simply eight councillors in Kingston and one in Richmond, whom they subsequently misplaced in a by-election in January 2024. Hounslow, the third borough within the GLA constituency, is closely Labour.

In 2024, voters favoured Khan for the mayoralty, whereas electing a Liberal Democrat meeting member for the primary time, displaying their savvy use of the totally different voting techniques at their disposal. This confirms the Lib Dems’ environment friendly focusing on of the seat since 2021, and their elevated maintain on the South-West of London, with three MPs, two councils and a GLA seat, which might bode effectively for his or her try and (re)achieve Wimbledon and Carshalton and Wallington. However, the Lib Dems’ skill to bypass FPTP within the constituency led them to being broken by the proportional facet of the election and miss getting their third listing candidate, mayoral hopeful Rob Blackie, elected. Equally mockingly, the Tories, who additionally misplaced the West Central constituency to Labour, ended up with three constituencies and 5 top-up seats: the AMS system they’d chosen to not change thus saved their illustration.

For the primary time since 2008, the Liberal Democrats have been capable of maintain their deposit and end third, although solely 70 votes forward of the Greens. They received two seats on the Meeting, whereas the Greens took three. Regardless of attempting to squeeze the Reform vote, Susan Corridor’s occasion haemorrhaged assist to the suitable, with Reform taking one listing seat. With 11 meeting seats, Khan is for certain to get his finances by way of and roll out most of his pledges. 

If nationwide politics do affect mayoral contests and a few voters do use native elections to ship a message to the federal government, one ought to be cautious of treating the GLA elections as second order elections or opinion polls. Persona, file and imaginative and prescient matter as a lot to voters, if no more, than occasion labels. Folks vote in another way at totally different elections, and turnout is prone to be increased within the generals than within the GLA election.

The outcomes however bolster London’s standing as a Stay-leaning and more and more Labour-voting capital. With an unpopular mayoral candidate and nationwide authorities after 14 years in energy, it was unlikely that the Conservatives might flip London blue, however their choice to vary a part of the voting system clearly backfired. In what was a closely Conservative metropolis in 2008, the occasion now holds 5 out of 32 boroughs and solely took two wards from Labour throughout the 15 native by-elections that additionally passed off on Might 2. 

Basic election polls appear to verify the Tories’ seemingly retreat within the capital as with the remainder of the nation, with the occasion being projected to win between one and 7 seats, down from 21. The Tories have continued attacking Khan and calling on Reform voters to vote tactically to keep away from Keir Starmer getting a “supermajority”.

Regardless of Starmer having launched his normal election battle bus in Uxbridge, London doesn’t characteristic excessive in Labour’s marketing campaign because the occasion is attempting to regain floor in Scotland and the North of England. But, the occasion has been grabbing the headlines for its internecine warfare, with Jeremy Corbyn, Diane Abbott and Faiza Shaheen standing as independents. Though these inside wranglings might break up the progressive vote in some constituencies, it’s unlikely it can loosen Labour’s total grip on London, or certainly considerably harm its majority within the Commons.

Whereas Sadiq Khan’s first two phrases have been marked by tensions with central authorities over points such because the TfL bailout or the London Plan, a extra constructive relationship might emerge if Starmer wins the premiership – Khan’s manifesto appears to have been written in shut cooperation with Labour HQ. If, as predicted, Starmer does come to energy, a number of questions stay over his and Khan’s skill to resolve their coverage variations or over the rising calls for additional (particularly fiscal) devolution to London and different city-regions. In the meantime, London doubtlessly morphing right into a one-party metropolis after July 4th additionally raises questions over the way forward for democracy and accountability within the capital.

Clémence Leveque is a PhD candidate in British politics on the Sorbonne Nouvelle College in Paris. Her analysis focuses on the Liberal Democrats’ 2021 GLA election marketing campaign.