As Andy Burnham begins his try to achieve 10 Downing Road through Makerfield, Tom Fleming – the Structure Unit’s new Deputy Director – discusses how a change of Prime Minister would possibly change the federal government’s strategy to constitutional reform.
The Mayor of Higher Manchester, Andy Burnham, has been confirmed because the Labour Social gathering’s candidate for the upcoming Makerfield by-election. If he had been to win – which is much from assured – he’s extensively anticipated to launch a bid to switch Keir Starmer as Labour chief and Prime Minister. This has sparked a lot dialogue of what a hypothetical Burnham premiership would possibly appear to be. Whereas he has not but laid out an in depth agenda for presidency, Burnham’s previous feedback present an curiosity in important constitutional reform. So what sort of reform agenda has he prompt, how would it not differ from the present authorities’s strategy, and what sensible and political concerns would possibly it increase?
Devolution inside England
Throughout his 9 years as Mayor of Higher Manchester, Burnham has a longtime report of main requires larger devolution inside England. The Starmer authorities has already pursued important modifications on this space. The 2024 Labour manifesto promised to deepen devolution to the present Mixed Authorities and widen devolution to extra of the nation. That agenda was mirrored in a 2024 White Paper and the following English Devolution and Neighborhood Empowerment Act 2026. The current King’s Speech promised additional devolution of the facility to introduce an in a single day customer levy, describing it as ‘step one in a brand new period of fiscal devolution in England’.
Burnham has praised elements of the federal government’s report, telling a current occasion that the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Native Authorities has been ‘more and more spectacular with the readability of its drive in direction of devolution, and certainly the tempo that they’ve put behind English devolution’. Nevertheless, he additionally questioned different Whitehall departments’ dedication to this agenda and criticised what he described because the Division for Schooling’s ‘ongoing resistance’ to ‘devolve meaningfully post-16 training’. He reiterated this message early in his by-election marketing campaign, labelling the federal government’s present strategy a ‘midway home’ and calling for additional devolution of energy and sources.
A Burnham-led authorities would subsequently be more likely to lengthen English devolution additional than the present authorities has performed. However this may be an acceleration, somewhat than a change of route.
Changing the Home of Lords
Burnham has additionally referred to as for the Home of Lords to get replaced with a ‘Senate of the Nations and Areas’. This echoes language utilized in Labour’s 2015 and 2019 manifestos, and the 2022 Brown Fee’s name for an ‘Meeting of the Nations and Areas’.
The thought of a second chamber representing the UK’s nations and areas was analysed intimately by the Structure Unit’s Meg Russell in a 2023 report. It’s not but clear what particular mannequin of second chamber Burnham would suggest. However the important thing questions for any mannequin might be what perform the brand new second chamber ought to play, what powers it ought to have, and the way it must be composed.
This type of large-scale Lords reform would mark a departure from the present authorities’s extra cautious strategy. Labour’s 2024 manifesto promised plenty of smaller modifications, on which it has begun to make some progress. The remaining hereditary friends have been eliminated, and events now have to supply a ‘quotation’ explaining every of their nominations for brand spanking new friends. Wanting forward, a Lords committee has been tasked with contemplating the introduction of a retirement age and participation requirement, and the 2026 King’s Speech promised ‘a mechanism for eradicating peerages from disgraced friends’.
Nevertheless, Labour’s manifesto additionally promised to seek the advice of on the way to change the Lords with ‘another second chamber that’s extra consultant of the areas and nations’. The federal government has made no progress on this space, so a brand new Burnham-led authorities might start a dialog about a lot wider Lords reform with out diverging from the manifesto on which its MPs had been elected. However that dialog – significantly if it contains critical deliberation with members of the general public – is more likely to take time, and we’re already two years into this parliament. So any important transfer towards a substitute higher chamber is unlikely to start this aspect of the following common election. It’d as an alternative be one thing {that a} Burnham-led Labour Social gathering would come with in its manifesto for that election.
Proportional illustration at Westminster
Burnham has repeatedly endorsed altering how the Home of Commons is elected, to switch first-past-the-post (FPTP) with some type of proportional illustration (PR). He has argued that this may guarantee election outcomes higher mirrored voters’ preferences, and would produce a extra collaborative long-term tradition at Westminster.
In contrast to on English devolution and Lords reform, Burnham’s views on this subject differ starkly from the present authorities’s place and pledges. The federal government’s Illustration of the Folks Invoice will introduce some very important electoral reforms, together with votes at 16 for Westminster elections. However ministers have so far opposed any transfer away from FPTP (not less than for common elections). That is maybe comprehensible, provided that the present system allowed Labour to win 63% of the seats within the Commons in 2024 from simply 34% of the vote. However some Labour MPs again a transfer to PR, as do most of the social gathering’s activists.
Nevertheless, that is one other space the place a Burnham-led authorities is unlikely to hunt fast modifications within the brief time period. In considered one of his first interviews of the by-election marketing campaign, Burnham successfully dominated out in search of to vary the Westminster electoral system through the present parliament, saying that any change would should be within the social gathering’s manifesto and get endorsed at a common election.
Within the meantime, Burnham’s plans face three key questions.
First, what various electoral system would he need the following Labour manifesto to suggest? He has endorsed PR, however this is available in many various kinds. Including additional uncertainty, Burnham has illustrated a few of his previous endorsements of ‘PR’ with references to what’s truly the preferential ‘supplementary vote’ system below which he was elected Mayor in 2017 and 2021.
Second, would he envisage that selection being knowledgeable by a wider strategy of deliberation inside and past the Labour Social gathering? Such deliberation would possibly assist to make sure any eventual proposal might command wider help and legitimacy. In that context, it’s value noting that over 60 Labour MPs are presently urgent for a ‘Nationwide Fee on Electoral Reform’.
Third, would the manifesto search a mandate for altering the electoral system, or – as in Labour’s 1997 and 2010 manifestos – for a referendum on doing so? This selection would want very cautious consideration, as electoral reform is commonly argued to be the form of basic constitutional change that requires specific public consent through a referendum. Certainly, polling for the Structure Unit in 2021 discovered 61% of respondents agreeing that the Westminster voting system must be determined by a referendum, in comparison with simply 10% wanting it to be determined by MPs.
Reforming the Home of Commons
Lastly, Burnham has prompt eradicating or reforming the ‘whipping’ system within the Home of Commons, as a part of a wider criticism that Whitehall has an excessive amount of energy over elected MPs. It’s in no way clear what this may actually imply in observe. Social gathering whips don’t simply cajole rebellious MPs into voting for issues they disagree with. They impart MPs’ considerations to ministers, assist to coordinate parliamentary enterprise, and handle varied logistical and HR-adjacent issues. Burnham presumably is aware of this, provided that he beforehand spent 16 years as an MP. So it appears extra believable that he would possibly permit Labour MPs extra freedom to diverge from the social gathering management, somewhat than casting off social gathering whips completely.
Keir Starmer’s unusually powerful strategy to managing his parliamentary social gathering leaves plenty of scope for his successor to seem much less strict. Certainly, this can be one thing that unites Burnham and his potential management rival Wes Streeting, provided that the latter’s resignation letter as Well being Secretary criticised Starmer for a ‘heavy-handed strategy to dissenting voices’.
Burnham’s complaints about whipping increase the query of whether or not he would search wider procedural modifications within the Commons. For instance, would possibly he be keen to let MPs – somewhat than ministers – have extra management over the Home of Commons’ agenda? The present authorities arrange a brand new ‘Modernisation Committee’ in 2024 to evaluation the Commons’ procedures, requirements, and practices. So far it has been comparatively cautious, publishing solely a handful of experiences and never but proposing any important procedural modifications. Nevertheless, a Burnham-led authorities would possibly view the Modernisation Committee as a possible car for pursuing extra basic modifications within the relationship between authorities and parliament.
Abstract
Total, Andy Burnham has proven a willingness to ponder plenty of radical constitutional reforms. But when he does change Keir Starmer later this yr, we should always not anticipate a direct and wholesale change within the authorities’s strategy to the structure. Burnham’s agenda not less than partly builds on work already begun by the present authorities or promised within the Labour Social gathering’s 2024 election manifesto. And the place he diverges most starkly from the present authorities – on electoral reform – he has dominated out any change till after the following common election.
Concerning the writer
Tom Fleming is Deputy Director of the Structure Unit and an Affiliate Professor within the Division of Political Science at UCL.
Featured picture: Andy Burnham (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0) by World Financial Discussion board.
