By Fraser McMillan and Davide Vampa
In October 1967, a political earthquake struck the Scottish city of Hamilton. The Scottish Nationwide Occasion, till then a marginal power, surged to prominence when Winnie Ewing captured a Westminster seat lengthy held by Labour. That by-election was transformative, marking the beginning of the SNP’s ascent into mainstream politics – a journey that may finally lead to devolution, nationalist authorities, and a close-fought referendum on independence.
Almost sixty years later, Hamilton has as soon as once more turn into the stage for political disruption. The 2025 Scottish Parliament by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse – triggered by the demise of SNP MSP Christina McKelvie – might show one other symbolic turning level. However this time, it isn’t the SNP that’s making historical past. Neither is it a simple story of Labour revival. The actual shock has been the unprecedented rise of Reform UK, a celebration that till now had no electoral footprint in Scotland.
A brittle comeback, a major decline, and a populist surge
The headline outcome was a Labour victory – the social gathering gained with 32% of the vote. This got here as a shock to many given the encompassing media narrative, however it was removed from a commanding efficiency. In actual fact, the social gathering’s share fell by two factors in comparison with the 2021 Holyrood election, when it was struggling nationally (ending third throughout Scotland, behind the Conservatives). Nonetheless, the one-off nature of the competition and Labour’s massive consumption of recent Scottish MPs following its basic election victory final yr allowed it to deploy a stronger floor operation, which restricted losses and enabled it to complete first. That mentioned, the resilience of the Labour vote even within the shadow of an unpopular UK Labour administration suggests that we’ll see three-way contests like this bobbing up throughout Scotland subsequent Might. The morale enhance offered by profitable the seat will even permit the social gathering to method that contest with optimism relatively than the doom and gloom that has appeared a fixture since Keir Starmer entered Downing Road final July.
In distinction, the SNP – anticipated to retain the seat, albeit with a diminished majority – suffered losses largely akin to their defeat in that 2024 basic election, plunging from 46% to 29%. The social gathering’s polling has stabilised however not risen, and the 29% on this constituency shouldn’t be removed from its nationwide numbers. The even unfold of SNP help across the nation damage the social gathering final yr, and they’re going to now concern a repeat in 2026, albeit one muted by the proportional electoral system. Labour hope to focus minds on the nationalists’ report in authorities and make the subsequent Holyrood election about change north of the border, and this outcome suggests that’s their finest hope of dislodging John Swinney.
Essentially the most notable takeaway from this by-election, nevertheless, got here from Reform UK, which surged from primarily zero help to 26% – narrowly lacking second place however outperforming expectations, together with Britain Predicts’ estimate of 23%. Such a outcome would have been thought-about a triumph even in an English constituency final yr. The truth that it was met with disappointment by some Farage supporters, who had hoped the social gathering would take second and even win, solely underscores how dramatic its rise within the Scottish context is. In the meantime, the Conservatives endured a brutal collapse, falling from 18% to simply 6%, and successfully exiting the competition – with Reform not solely cannibalising Tory voters however attracting additional help.
The size and asymmetry of those shifts level to a profound political realignment. Labour’s shock win – pushed largely by the SNP’s collapse – was underwhelming in its personal proper and divulges the absence of a single, dominant beneficiary from the nationalist social gathering’s decline. As a substitute, Scottish politics seems to be coming into a much more fragmented and unstable part – one during which previous certainties are quickly eroding.
Is that this the tip of constitutional polarisation?
The defining characteristic of Scottish politics for the reason that 2014 independence referendum has been structured constitutional polarisation: a mutually reinforcing division between pro- and anti-independence blocs, embodied respectively by the SNP and the Conservatives. This dynamic endured via the 2021 Scottish election. However the Hamilton by-election reinforces the results of the 2024 basic election in demonstrating that that is now a factor of the previous.
The SNP’s technique beneath John Swinney to raise Reform UK as its principal opponent – in an effort to create a brand new type of polarisation – seems to have backfired. Quite than consolidating progressive help, it might have inadvertently legitimised Reform and amplified its enchantment amongst disillusioned voters. In contrast to the ‘symbiotic’ SNP-Tory binary of the previous, there may be at present no clear bulwark in opposition to Reform. Labour’s ambiguous positioning, coupled with the Conservatives’ continued decline, leaves the populist right-wing social gathering dealing with little coordinated resistance.
The outcome shouldn’t be the emergence of a brand new structured polarisation, however its reverse: political flux. If the constitutional query as soon as supplied a type of order to Scottish politics – nevertheless contentious – right now’s panorama is marked by volatility and fragmentation.
The Reform disruption and its vulnerabilities
Reform UK’s breakthrough, even in defeat, is disruptive. It upended assumptions in regards to the impermeability of Scottish politics to Farage-style populism. The timing was additionally dramatic: on the day of the by-election, Reform’s chairman Zia Yusuf resigned – a reminder of the social gathering’s inner instability. Management crises should not unusual amongst populist radical proper events, although they typically solely briefly halt their rise. This sample has been seen elsewhere in Europe. In Germany, for instance, AfD’s co-leader Frauke Petry give up shortly after the social gathering’s 2017 breakthrough, when it gained practically 13% of the vote. The departure barely dented AfD’s momentum; by 2025, it had turn into the nation’s second-largest social gathering, with over 20% help.
Whether or not Reform’s rise in Hamilton is a one-off or the beginning of a long-term presence at Holyrood stays unsure. However what is evident is that it faucets into deeper discontents – not simply with the SNP or Holyrood, however with the whole political institution. The SNP, after practically 20 years in energy, more and more resembles the established order it as soon as opposed. Reform’s anti-establishment message, even when simplistic, might resonate on this context. By positioning Reform as its principal opponent, the SNP dangers legitimising Farage’s social gathering additional – and, in doing so, might inadvertently solid itself as the principle goal of anti-establishment mobilisation. Alternatively, pro-independence Scots are virtually uniformly left of centre and pro-EU and can subsequently anticipate the social gathering to take the battle to the unconventional proper.
In contrast to the SNP’s rise, which was anchored in constitutional id and aspirations for nationwide self-determination, Reform’s enchantment is pushed by cultural grievance and rejection of the political class. Its core themes – opposition to immigration, internet zero, and socially progressive ‘woke’ politics – mirror a mode of politics that, till not too long ago, appeared to resonate primarily with voters in England and Wales. The truth that such a message may achieve traction in Scotland – even in a one-off by-election – indicators a possible shift within the political terrain.
Nonetheless, there are important obstacles to Reform’s longer-term viability north of the border. Nigel Farage stays deeply unpopular amongst massive segments of the Scottish public, notably among the many pro-independence, pro-EU, and socially progressive voters who make up practically half of the citizens. This means that the social gathering might face a low electoral ceiling, regardless of its sudden surge. Comparative experiences supply a combined image: for instance, Italy’s Northern League was capable of rebrand and increase considerably into beforehand hostile territory – even in southern areas the place the social gathering had lengthy been despised and just about absent. But this success was short-lived and introduced with it inner tensions and the chance of alienating core constituencies.
For Reform UK to maneuver from symbolic success to a sustained presence in Scotland, it’s going to want greater than provocative messaging. It is going to require organisational depth, a reputable native infrastructure, and the power to adapt its rhetoric to a Scottish context. To date, these parts seem missing. The social gathering’s operations have been erratic, and its marketing campaign – together with a controversial advert focusing on Anas Sarwar’s Pakistani heritage – drew widespread criticism. The resignation of Yusuf additional underscores Reform’s organisational fragility, even on the UK degree.
Conclusion: A system with out anchors?
Whereas the Hamilton outcome marks a strong second of disruption, it stays unclear whether or not this may translate into longer-term traction. What it does affirm, nevertheless, is that Scottish politics – as soon as seen as unusually structured and steady – is coming into an period of rising volatility, the place insurgents like Reform can not be dismissed out of hand.
The SNP’s try to shift from a constitutional to a socio-cultural, progressive-versus-reactionary confrontation has stumbled. Labour’s hoped-for resurgence seems extra brittle than assured. Reform UK, whereas organisationally unstable, has turn into the wildcard – a disruptive actor in a system that not has clear structuring poles.
This fragmentation carries dangers. With out structured polarisation, Scottish politics might slide into unstructured volatility. A disruptive polariser like Reform UK may reshape the system with out dealing with a coherent counterforce. In such a situation, the foundations of the political recreation should not simply altering – they might be dissolving altogether.
