By Fraser McMillan, Profession Launch Fellow (Territorial Politics), College of Edinburgh
In some quarters, final 12 months’s common election lead to Scotland was thought-about the demise knell for the independence motion. To these of a pro-union persuasion, Center Scotland’s swing in opposition to the SNP felt like a long-overdue repudiation. And whereas it’s true that the political winds lastly turned in opposition to the nationalists, it will be a mistake to write down off their founding political challenge – even because the world plunges into its most unsure geopolitical period for the reason that fall of the Berlin Wall.
With the SNP enduring two adjustments of chief, a succession of scandals and attracting rising blame from Scottish voters over the state of the nation’s ailing public companies, the occasion suffered their first defeat at a nationwide contest since 2010 in July 2024. Scottish Labour swept to victory throughout a lot of the Lowlands, attracting help from the SNP and Scottish Conservatives as the appropriate various to sad Scots on either side of the constitutional divide. However the electoral system exaggerated the size of the shift, punishing the geographic uniformity of the rump SNP vote, to present Labour 65% of complete seats with only a 5 proportion level lead in general vote share.
The drift of independence supporters from the SNP, with the share of those voters backing the occasion falling from between 80% and 90% at earlier elections to round 65%, was probably a short-term boon for Labour. However the stickiness of help for separation could show ominous. In keeping with Scottish Election Examine (SES) knowledge, 42% of those that shifted from the SNP to Labour between 2019 and 2024 did so whereas remaining in favour of independence (with an extra 18% undecided). Though help for the union remains to be barely extra entrenched general, age polarisation on the constitutional query is so excessive that churn within the voters favours the nationalists even when help for independence and the SNP continues to diverge.
Assist for independence by technology, 2007-2024Based mostly on Scottish Election Examine knowledge
The Conservatives, in the meantime, are poorly positioned to save lots of the union. The occasion burned its credibility amongst many anti-independence Scots with its stewardship of the British authorities and financial system throughout and after covid. At UK degree, successive Conservative Prime Ministers confirmed little curiosity in partaking with devolved administrations and the occasion beneath Kemi Badenoch is preoccupied with the specter of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. Nevertheless it responds to home and world developments, its strikes are unlikely to restore its repute among the many wider Scottish voters.
Whereas Scottish Tory MSPs have a tendency towards the average aspect of UK-wide Conservative debates, their resurgence at Holyrood within the 2010s seems to be more and more like a post-referendum flash-in-the-pan and the occasion north of the border can be dropping help to Reform. Regardless of being leaderless in Scotland, Farage’s occasion has quickly caught up with the Tories in 2026 Holyrood vote intention. Though Scottish Conservative chief Russell Findlay has criticised Holyrood’s “cosy left-wing consensus”, there’s little he can do to disrupt it. In October 2024 (based mostly on SES Scoop Monitor knowledge), amongst Scots who recognized themselves as “belonging to the No aspect”, simply 38% indicated they’re extra probably than to not vote for the occasion in future. The Scottish Conservatives have been already fishing for votes in a small pond, however even that’s shrinking.
The duty should due to this fact fall to Labour. It’s troublesome to overstate the significance of public attitudes to independence within the second half of the last decade. That is the primary time for the reason that Scottish voters polarised on the constitutional query throughout and after 2014 that SNP and Labour governments have cohabited at Holyrood and Westminster. If attitudes to independence don’t bitter considerably with a Labour Prime Minister in Downing Avenue, it’s virtually inevitable that the query will return to the highest of the agenda in future.
Assist for independence tends to fluctuate in a really slim vary, as a result of most Scots are fairly closely entrenched on one aspect or the opposite. However the smaller group of “persuadables” within the center are in the end those who will determine the nation’s constitutional future. The one interval the Sure aspect held a sustained lead in independence vote intention was in the course of the 12 months or so of lockdown in 2020-21, when most of the people believed the Scottish Authorities had accomplished a significantly better job of dealing with the pandemic than the UK administration. A equally sized however short-lived bump in Sure vote intention occurred in response to the Truss mini-budget in late 2022. Swings in favour of independence are clearly linked to assessments of comparative authorities efficiency between the 2 ranges.
After a chaotic couple of years for the SNP, First Minister John Swinney has stabilised the occasion and brought no matter alternatives he can to make use of his authorities as a bulwark in opposition to unpopular Labour insurance policies equivalent to a lower in pensioner Winter Gas Allowance. He has additionally dedicated to enjoying the lengthy sport on independence, de-emphasising the difficulty for now and describing it as a activity of “persuasion”. Regardless of the deserves of any particular person coverage, Swinney appears to be conscious that positioning the SNP as defenders of Scottish social democracy in opposition to Westminster is useful to his electoral prospects in addition to the broader Sure motion. Perceived competence and the power to face up for Scotland’s pursuits have been what propelled the SNP to energy within the first place, and the occasion seems to recognise this.
This leaves Labour in a troublesome place. The occasion acquired no honeymoon on both aspect of the River Tweed, and the brand new UK authorities’s early challenges have severely dented Scottish Labour’s probabilities of coming into authorities at Holyrood subsequent 12 months. Nevertheless, if the Starmer’s administration can ship on its development agenda, giving youthful individuals all around the UK alternatives they really feel they’ve been denied and bettering creaking public companies, it is going to be good for his personal re-election prospects in addition to the union itself. Persuading Scots the UK is a challenge price committing to for a fourth century, fairly than tinkering across the edges of the devolution settlement, is essential to resolving the constitutional query.
If the creating European safety state of affairs doesn’t try this by itself, differentiation from the SNP on points equivalent to nuclear energy, North Sea oil and fuel and critical planning reform are the levers with which to perform this in Scotland, however time just isn’t on Labour’s aspect. And, even when the nationalists can’t in the end escape blame for widespread disillusionment with Scottish governance, independence will stay an interesting escape-hatch for a lot of.
