2024 Catalan election: is it the end of the ‘Process’, as we know it?

By Núria Franco-Guillén and Ivan Serrano Balaguer

For the primary time for the reason that transition to democracy of 1978, final Sunday’s elections in Catalonia resulted in a Parliament with out a nationalist majority. The Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) whose chief and authorities’s president, Pere Aragonès, known as for a snap election after failing to safe assist for the Generalitat’s annual price range, misplaced round 30% of assist. The ERC fell again to the third place; method past the Partit Socialista de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) and the center-right Junts + Puigdemont. The previous Catalan president’s get together elevated assist by 1% and three seats and have become the second largest get together within the chamber, whereas the anticapitalist secessionist left, Candidatura d’Unitat In style (CUP) halved its variety of seats. The Catalan-based radical proper Aliança Catalana (AC) managed to acquire two seats within the Parliament. Ciudadanos, a political get together created to be able to cease the ‘Course of’, because the latest push for Catalonia’s independence is understood, misplaced all its seats, whereas a brand new get together advocating for unilateral independence and led by the College of Saint Andrews-based politician in exile, Clara Ponsatí additionally did not get hold of illustration. Regardless of PSC-PSOE’s victory, there’s a actual probability of a hung parliament since there are not any simply achievable coalitions to maintain a steady authorities.

Desk 1. Catalan Election outcomes, 2024-2021 (variety of seats. Majority at 68)

Political Occasion20242021ChangePartit dels Socialistes de Catalunya4233+9Junts + Puigdemont per Catalunya3532+3Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya2033-13Partit In style153+12Vox11110Comuns Sumar68-2Candidatura d’Unitat In style49-5Aliança Catalana20+2Ciutadans06-6

Supply: Generalitat de Catalunya – Processos electorals (https://eleccions.gencat.cat/ca/inici/ – final visited 13/05/2024)

These outcomes beg the query whether or not the times of independence mobilisation are over. Certainly, the 2024 election occurs in a altering context for territorial politics in Catalonia within the aftermath of the referendum of 2017 that led to the suspension of Catalan autonomy. First, regardless of turnout being again to the standard ranges of the mid 2000s, there appears to be a de-mobilisation of the pro-independence voter which had historically abstained lower than the non-secessionist voters. Some ecologic inference analyses primarily based on census sections appear to recommend, for instance, {that a} third of ERC’s loss is because of abstention, and that general, turnout was larger in municipalities with a decrease focus of pro-independence get together voters (and about 7% decrease in municipalities with larger assist for pro-independence events). Secondly, de-mobilisation of pro-independence votes has not solely materialised in abstention or different pro-independence choices, however ecologic inference suggests a development in direction of non-secessionist choices. This switch of votes has affected the CUP, which misplaced practically half of her voters since 2021, a lot of them going to the left-wing Comuns-Sumar and PSC-PSOE. 74000 of ERC’s misplaced votes might have contributed to as much as a 3rd of the PSC-PSOE’s development. In flip, the Socialists not solely received the elections, but in addition returned to outcomes just like these they used to acquire previous to the so-called ‘Course of’. How did all of it get right here? 

Two years after Junts left the coalition authorities, ERC continued with a minority authorities that needed to depend on very fragile assist from the opposition events, particularly, Junts, PSC, Comuns and the CUP. Failure to go the price range legislation apparently stemmed from a deep disagreement between political events in two coverage points that Junts and PSC supported, however ERC didn’t: first, the enlargement of the Barcelona Airport, and second, the continuation of a macro-casino mission that Arduous Rock café intends to construct within the south of Catalonia, and that Junts and PSC – with assist from the PP – had voted to permit in 2014. The Comuns-Sumar group, regardless of supporting the socialist coalition authorities on the Spanish degree, withdrew their assist to approve the Generalitat’s price range because it was towards the 2 initiatives. 

Throughout the marketing campaign, together with the routine debates across the Course of, elevated consideration has been paid to points which were salient in Europe’s political agenda for some time, similar to immigration, gender, or local weather change. Debate on these points was probably delayed by the Course of. The incumbent ERC had targeted efforts on governing the Catalan govt, not solely as a part of its seemingly social-democrat agenda, but in addition as a part of a long run technique of enlarging its foundation of social assist – and therefore assist for independence. Among the coverage initiatives included the research of a common primary revenue, placing an finish to interval poverty, the hire costs containment legislation, or the reversal of price range cuts imposed by austerity insurance policies through the international monetary disaster, particularly in areas similar to training and well being. These insurance policies had heterogeneous outcomes and stirred debates across the mannequin of society. 

On the territorial query, and after securing the pardon for the politicians prosecuted after the 2017 referendum, negotiations for amnesty had been being held on the Spanish degree on the similar time that Aragonès unsuccessfully tried to begin negotiations for a referendum, whereas the switch of different competencies to Catalonia was additionally mentioned. All in all, the post-2017 agenda together with negotiating the assist for PSOE’s governments in Madrid has not been in a position to retain, not to mention enlarge, the electoral assist of pro-independence events. Moreover, the confrontation between these events has solely deepened, and far of the marketing campaign consisted of mutual accusations over who does much less for the independence of Catalonia. 

Matters such because the decay of Catalan language, and immigrant integration appeared prominently within the media and in election debates, each of them extremely influenced by excessive – and generally intertwined – positions. This was partly as a result of rise of the unconventional proper Aliança Catalana (AC), with a ‘Save Catalonia’ slogan targeted on the purported disappearance of Catalan id, language and traditions, resulting from unlawful immigration that’s inspired by the central state.[1] Over-engagement with this new get together by different political events, and its over-representation by the media have unsurprisingly resulted in AC profitable two seats within the Catalan Parliament because of protest-voters, a lot of them from inside Catalonia’s disadvantaged areas and who had beforehand abstained and even voted for pro-independence events. Unsurprisingly as nicely, the Junts made a delicate effort to co-opt a part of the unconventional rights’ concepts, thus consolidating the AC’s agenda-setting and framing.

Prospects: the top of the ‘Catalan query’?

Catalan politics at the moment face three essential challenges: First, it may be argued that the dearth of clear management amongst the pro-independence events, their frequent disagreements on each the independence query and on normal coverage points, and the dearth of efficient outcomes both when it comes to self-determination or self-government paints an ambiguous panorama forward for the pro-independence agenda. Second, Catalan society is turning into much more various and sophisticated. Youthful generations appear much less all in favour of politics whereas there’s a rising concern about rising excessive proper values, particularly amongst younger males. Altering patterns of political socialization in classical cleavages -either right-left or centre-periphery- might open lots of uncertainty about how future voters will interact in politics. Furthermore, the consolidation of deep variety in Catalonia raises doubts about how the political and electoral panorama might evolve within the coming years. 

Third, on the Spanish degree, political polarization between the 2 essential historic blocks in Spanish politics is on the rise, and this will likely drive cooperation between peripheral nationalisms and the PSOE which may be detrimental to the development of territorial objectives. Lastly, mass migrations, the financial mannequin primarily based on low-quality companies and tourism, safety points or the results of local weather change on vitality and the administration of persistent drought will stay key challenges that the following Catalan governments must face. All this can must be confronted with the identical limitations of a decentralised regime that prompted the contentious interval that appears to be fading away. 

Mockingly sufficient, the day of the election noticed large chaos of the Catalan prepare system, which not solely is duty of the Spanish authorities, however was the set off of the one of many early large demonstrations for the appropriate to resolve in 2007. Both method, whether or not Catalan events can kind a authorities and keep away from electoral repetition will likely be key for pro-independence events to face this arguably new cycle of low mobilisation on the territorial query.