What’s the real migrant crime rate in NYC? We have no idea

Final Monday, Venezuelan migrant Sandra Serrano was shot and killed exterior the Randall’s Island migrant shelter, caught within the crossfire in what police assume was a retaliatory capturing for a theft.

Serrano’s homicide was the second killing on the 3,000-bed shelter, and at the very least the eighth migrant-related killing this yr.

If Mayor Adams doesn’t need such headlines to control New Yorkers’ perceptions of migrant crime, Metropolis Corridor wants to offer laborious knowledge.

Serrano’s killing marked 4 murders in July wherein migrants have been perpetrators or victims — or each.

Mid-month, two males residing in a Brooklyn migrant shelter have been shot and killed exterior it, seemingly the victims of a Venezuelan gang hit.

The identical evening, one other Venezuelan migrant died violently in a close-by park — and the alleged shooter on this killing wasn’t a migrant, however a parks employee with whom he had fought, highlighting migrants’ vulnerability, as nicely.

In June, a migrant fatally shot two Bronx residents after they objected to his squatting of their condo constructing. In January, a dispute between migrants, additionally at Randall’s Island, left one man lifeless.

Non-fatal crimes embody the June rape of a Queens lady, the June capturing of two law enforcement officials (additionally in Queens), the February capturing of a vacationer throughout a Instances Sq. shoplifting try, a number of armed robberies and petty theft that usually goes unreported.

Do these anecdotes add as much as a better or a decrease price of crime, in contrast with the Gotham common?

There isn’t any approach to know.

Adams says migrant gang members are “extraordinarily harmful,” however the NYPD doesn’t report crime by immigration standing.

Absent knowledge, concern that migrants are pushing up town’s crime price is met with progressive bromides.

Traditionally, immigrant crime charges are decrease than the nationwide common, specialists inform us.

New York absorbed half one million unauthorized immigrants between the early Eighties and 2019, and for 3 of these a long time, crime and dysfunction fell. Native felony crime is flat since 2022, when the present wave of migrants started arriving. 

However Biden-era migration is totally different.

There are the numbers: 200,000 folks have arrived in just two years, together with 65,000 presently in metropolis shelters.

Then there’s the financial system: Neither New York’s authorized jobs nor its non-migrant inhabitants are rising shortly, as each did between the Eighties and 2019 — so migrants are competing with one another and driving down wages within the metropolis’s underground financial system.

Then, there’s the deteriorated atmosphere of public dysfunction.

It doesn’t take quite a lot of days in post-2020 New York Metropolis to watch that something goes: Younger migrant males can blast their music exterior the Row Resort in Instances Sq. in any respect hours or rent a trafficked prostitute on Roosevelt Avenue in Queens.

This atmosphere of lawlessness is enticing to Venezuelan gang members. The NYPD suspects that the perpetrators of a number of latest crimes, together with the Queens cop capturing, have been members of Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang.  

Lastly, flat-ish crime numbers are not any reassurance. Sure, in 2024 (via July), felony crime and petit larceny are 2% under final yr’s ranges.

However crime stays considerably above 2019 ranges: felony crime is 35% increased, and petit larceny, 27%.

Whilst homicide falls to the pre-COVID regular nationwide, it stays elevated right here.

A disorganized native authorities attempting to implement legal guidelines in an atmosphere of higher leniency dictated by state-level reforms is partly in charge — however solely an ideologue would low cost any potential migrant function.

We wouldn’t have to take a position if the Adams administration would give us knowledge.

The mayor isn’t totally hamstrung by the Metropolis Council’s sanctuary-city insurance policies.

Sure, town prohibits most cooperation with federal immigration officers. However police can ask a suspect’s immigration standing when investigating a criminal offense past being illegally within the nation.

They’ll additionally inquire whether or not a suspect lives, or has not too long ago lived, in a migrant shelter. The NYPD may report such knowledge within the mixture, not with people’ names.

Migrant crime could also be increased than common — or decrease.

However a lack of awareness can create disinformation.

Certainly, a UK choose allowed the press this week to report the identify and background of the underaged suspect accused of slaying three women in a Merseyside knife assault, to cease the riots that broke out amid false claims that the killer was a latest asylum seeker.  

Good coverage is predicated on knowledge and information, not on preconceived notions — whether or not pro-migrant or in any other case.

Nicole Gelinas is a senior fellow on the Manhattan Institute. Up to date and tailored from Metropolis Journal.