US Venezuela Op Risks Greenlighting Russia In Ukraine, China On Taiwan, Analysts Fear

Analysts have expressed grave issues over the current United States army operation in Venezuela, which culminated in airstrikes on 3 January 2026 and the seize of President Nicolás Maduro, warning that it establishes a deadly precedent for international powers.

This intervention, involving the deployment of warships, CIA operations, and the seizure of oil tankers since late 2025, has been framed by President Trump as a method to fight drug trafficking and safe Venezuelan oil assets below the Monroe Doctrine.

Critics argue that such unilateral motion in opposition to a sovereign state undermines worldwide legislation and will embolden adversaries like Russia and China to pursue aggressive methods elsewhere.

The operation started with a US army build-up within the Caribbean in August 2025, escalating to strikes on suspected drug vessels and a blockade that prevented oil exports. By December, the USS Gerald R. Ford service group was concerned, and covert CIA groups tracked Maduro, resulting in his extraction by helicopter raid close to Caracas, protected by drones and fighter jets.

Trump has vowed that the US will “run” Venezuela till a protected transition, with American companies poised to take advantage of its oil and fuel reserves, prompting accusations of useful resource grabs from Venezuelan officers.

Worldwide reactions have been swift and divided, with Latin American nations, Russia, China, and Iran condemning the strikes as violations of sovereignty. Russia’s International Ministry labelled it “armed aggression,” whereas China expressed shock on the “hegemonic acts,” urging adherence to the UN Constitution. 

Venezuelan Vice-President Delcy Rodríguez denounced Maduro’s seize as “barbaric,” although Trump claimed she was cooperating, highlighting the chaotic energy vacuum.

In geopolitical commentary, specialists spotlight how this units a template for Russia in Ukraine. President Putin’s long-held view of Ukraine as inside Moscow’s sphere mirrors Trump’s Monroe Doctrine software, probably justifying Russian abductions or escalations in opposition to Ukrainian leaders like President Zelenskyy.

Fiona Hill, a former Trump advisor, famous previous Russian proposals to commerce Venezuela help for US concessions on Ukraine, suggesting Putin may now overlook US actions in alternate for leeway. Russian officers have already invoked worldwide legislation violations in Venezuela to bolster their narrative, regardless of their very own actions in Ukraine.

Equally, for China and Taiwan, the Venezuela precedent lowers boundaries to coercion. Authorized scholar Milena Sterio warns that US blockades and strikes on “terrorist” boats may rationalise Chinese language blockades or “police actions” round Taiwan, particularly amid ongoing drills like “Justice Mission 2025”.

Steve Tsang of SOAS China Institute observes that Beijing, viewing Taiwan as non-sovereign, may deal with incursions as inner policing, emulating US claims in opposition to Venezuelan cartels. Latest Chinese language coast guard entries into Taiwanese waters close to Kinmen underscore this escalating assertiveness.

Chatham Home analysts predict Russia will cite the US strikes to defend its Ukraine invasion, whereas China leverages it in Taiwan rhetoric. The Trump administration’s designation of Venezuelan gangs as terrorist organisations evokes China’s probes into Taiwanese figures, blurring traces between state and non-state threats.

Lucio Blanco Pitlo III notes Beijing may argue stronger historic claims over Taiwan than the US has within the Caribbean, probably turning the South China Sea right into a “Chinese language lake”.

Broader implications lengthen to spheres of affect, with Trump’s Ukraine peace proposals favouring Russia now below scrutiny amid this precedent. Uncertainty over US arms commitments to Taiwan—regardless of $10 billion gross sales—amplifies fears, as Xi Jinping eyes reunification. Iranian parallels are drawn too, given Trump’s threats there, however focus stays on how Venezuela normalises regime change through pressure.

Ongoing protection tracks these alarms in real-time, with Latin American outcry and ally help like from Ukraine contrasting sharply. As Maduro faces fees in New York, the operation’s fallout dangers a cascade of escalations, the place powers invoke US justification for their very own interventions. Analysts urge multilateral restraint to forestall a brand new period of unchecked great-power adventurism.

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