U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled that Taiwan ought to shoulder a higher share of its personal protection prices, whereas Protection Secretary Pete Hegseth confused that america ought to not be accountable for absolutely subsidizing the safety of its allies overseas. Furthermore, Elbridge Colby, the nominee for undersecretary of protection for coverage, criticized Taiwan’s protection spending – at the moment “properly under” 3 % of GDP – as inadequate. Throughout his Senate affirmation listening to, he prompt rising Taiwan’s protection spending to roughly 10 % of GDP to boost Taiwan’s protection capabilities.
Though Trump’s comment was initially dismissed as an offhand remark, the follow-up statements from Hegseth and Colby now recommend a major strategic recalibration in U.S. protection coverage towards Taiwan. These statements supply perception right into a quickly evolving Taiwan-U.S. protection relationship.
As U.S. army support and strategic help for Taiwan are being reshaped, all eyes are on the query: How will Taiwan-U.S. protection relations evolve throughout Trump’s second time period? Will arms gross sales, army help, and strategic commitments bear basic adjustments?
Not like the Biden administration – which emphasised fast response and regional stability – Trump’s strategy is markedly completely different. He insists that allies ought to bear a bigger portion of their very own protection prices and questions whether or not america ought to proceed offering army support to Taiwan with out monetary compensation. Whereas Biden’s coverage targeted on delivering smaller, rapidly deployable techniques, Trump’s technique favors bigger, standard weaponry. His renewed name for Taiwan to imagine extra protection prices indicators a possible rebalancing of a decades-long partnership.
Arms Gross sales and Navy Financing in Query
Taiwan’s reliance on U.S. arms gross sales is obvious. Crucial techniques such because the MQ-9B “Sky Guardian” drone, F-16V fighter jets, M1 Abrams tanks, and HIMARS a number of rocket launchers are integral to Taiwan’s protection planning. But Taiwan continues to be awaiting supply on roughly $21.95 billion price of U.S. arms orders – lots of which have been delayed for over 4 years. On January 14, incoming U.S. Nationwide Safety Adviser Mike Waltz addressed this extreme backlog by stating that over $20 billion price of apparatus for which Taiwan has already paid have to be delivered promptly to make sure efficient deterrence.
Roughly 72 % (about $15.7 billion) of those pending orders have been initiated throughout Trump’s first time period. In distinction to the Biden administration’s give attention to smaller, quickly deployable techniques, Trump persistently promoted bigger, standard weaponry. His stance that Taiwan should assume a higher share of its protection prices suggests a possible shift within the long-established Taiwan-U.S. protection framework.
Complicating issues additional, Trump signed Government Order No. 14169, which instituted a 90‑day freeze on international support – together with funds underneath the Overseas Navy Financing (FMF) program. On January 24, Secretary of State Marco Rubio directed that just about all international support commitments, together with FMF disbursements, be suspended. Nonetheless, Taiwan was granted an exemption from this freeze, guaranteeing that FMF help will proceed as approved underneath the Taiwan Enhanced Resilience Act. Whereas this growth alleviates issues about instant funding cuts, questions stay about how future FMF allocations will probably be structured underneath Trump’s transactional strategy to international army help.
Moreover, key deliveries – akin to MQ-9B drones, HIMARS rocket techniques, and F-16V jets – could undergo extra delays because the Pentagon undertakes a complete overview of its arms export insurance policies. This overview may additional compress Taiwan’s modernization timeline, compelling Taipei to reassess its protection technique and useful resource allocation.
Past the arms sale course of, the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) has offered Taiwan with fast, versatile army help by deploying tools from current U.S. inventories throughout emergencies. Below the Biden administration, Taiwan benefited from a number of PDA support packages, together with allocations in July 2023, September 2024, and December 2024.
Nonetheless, with Trump’s present freeze on international support, future PDA-based help could also be topic to stricter scrutiny, extra delays, or potential cuts. At his Senate affirmation listening to, Hegseth reiterated that U.S. priorities should give attention to U.S. pursuits and army readiness, leaving the way forward for PDA help for Taiwan unsure. This raises essential questions on whether or not the U.S. will proceed to supply instant army help to Taipei or shift the monetary burden onto Taiwan.
Taiwan’s Drone Trade
To present one concrete instance of how these insurance policies are taking part in out, let’s take a look at Taiwan’s drone business.
In fashionable warfare, uncrewed aerial techniques (UAS) have grow to be indispensable. Taiwan’s “General Protection Idea” emphasizes innovation and cost-effectiveness, with drones rising as a key strategic focus. Nonetheless, present home drone manufacturing is hindered by reliance on imported superior sensors and safe communication modules.
The mixed delayed FMS deliveries and uncertainties in PDA support and FMF funding have compounded the challenges for Taiwan in procuring fashionable drone applied sciences from america. Whereas the MQ-9B “Sky Guardian” buy continues to be underway, future agreements could include extra restrictive circumstances.
In response, the Taiwanese authorities is actively selling indigenous drone manufacturing by means of initiatives such because the Aerospace and Unmanned Techniques Industrial Park, which goals to diversify manufacturing and bolster provide chain resilience. Concurrently, Taiwan’s “Teng Yun” drone venture is advancing efforts to boost autonomous navigation and stealth capabilities, thereby decreasing exterior dependencies.
Latest Coverage Shifts within the Trump Administration
Latest indicators from the Trump administration additional illustrate the strategic shift that’s underway. The uncertainty surrounding a attainable extension of the present 90-day freeze on international army financing may doubtlessly delay vital arms deliveries even additional. Nonetheless, Taiwan’s exemption from this freeze supplies a level of continuity in its protection funding, mitigating a number of the instant monetary uncertainties.
On the similar time, the Pentagon’s ongoing complete overview of its arms export protocols is predicted to trigger extra delays for key techniques just like the F-16V fighter jets and HIMARS rocket techniques earlier than the brand new protocols are rolled out, additional compressing Taiwan’s modernization timeline.
Senior Trump administration officers have repeatedly confused that allies, together with Taiwan, should contribute extra on to their very own protection. This transactional rhetoric represents a major departure from earlier bipartisan norms and implies a pivot towards a mannequin by which decreasing U.S. fiscal commitments is prioritized, pushing Taiwan to boost its self-reliance and search supplementary funding from various companions.
Because the geopolitical panorama within the Indo‑Pacific grows more and more complicated amid China’s assertive army enlargement within the Taiwan Strait, Taipei should recalibrate its protection planning. Whereas Taiwan’s exemption from the FMF freeze supplies continuity in U.S. army support, broader shifts in Trump’s protection insurance policies nonetheless necessitate reassessing finances priorities, investing extra closely in home protection industries, and broadening worldwide partnerships.
