Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian airfields could derail Russia’s war efforts

The drone assaults by Ukrainian Operation Spider’s Internet forces on Russian airfields have referred to as into query Russia’s supposed army power.

Russian authorities have acknowledged harm from the June 1 assaults — an uncommon admission that implies the strikes had been in all probability efficient, given Russia’s ordinary sample of downplaying or denying the success of Ukrainian operations.

The operation’s most important goal was the Belaya air base, north of Mongolia. Belaya, like the opposite bases focused, is a crucial element within the Russian Air Power’s strategic strike capabilities as a result of it homes planes able to long-range nuclear and traditional strikes.

It’s additionally in Irkutsk, roughly 4,500 kilometres from the entrance strains in Ukraine.

Learn extra:
Ukraine drone strikes on Russian airbase reveal any nation is weak to the identical form of assault

Ukraine’s skill to efficiently strike Belaya — an tried strike on the much more distant Ukrainka air base failed — in all probability gained’t have a lot of a army impression on the warfare. However together with profitable assaults on different Russian airfields and the strike on the Kerch Bridge in Crimea, Operation Spider Internet’s successes might play a strategic function within the battle.

These assaults might shift what has turn out to be more and more detrimental media protection and public notion about Ukraine’s probabilities within the warfare over the past yr. In a warfare of attrition, which the battle in Ukraine has turn out to be, establishing a perception in victory is a pre-condition for achievement.

Elevated pessimism

Policymakers and pundits, as an alternative of recognizing their expectations of a Ukrainian victory in 2023 had been unrealistic, have typically declared that the warfare is unwinnable for Ukraine.

This attitude was much more prevalent following United States President Donald Trump’s resumption of energy in January 2025. Within the Oval Workplace spat Trump had with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in late February, he declared Ukraine didn’t “have the playing cards” to defeat Russia.

This turned out to be false. Ukraine’s military might possess considerably much less army {hardware} and fewer troopers than Russia’s, however warfare is usually a continuation of politics. Politically, Russia faces a number of points that might derail its warfare efforts.

Russian vulnerabilities

Russia’s army capabilities are essential to Russian nationalists, who make up Russian chief Vladimir Putin’s core constituency. Russian army forces have superior alongside practically all fronts in Ukraine over the past yr.

These advances, nonetheless, have largely been insignificant. Moreover, they’ve emphasised Russia’s army weak point, which is an ongoing affront to Russian nationalists.

Not solely have Russian army advances over the past yr not modified the warfare in a strictly army sense, however the tempo of advance has been extremely gradual. Over the past yr, Russian forces have captured 5,107 sq. kilometres of Ukrainian territory. This territory represents lower than one per cent of Ukraine’s pre-war territory.

In change for what quantities to negligible features, Russian armed forces have suffered vital casualties.

Each Russia and Ukraine rigorously guard the variety of casualties their forces have suffered within the warfare. The British Ministry of Defence, nonetheless, estimates that Russia could have suffered greater than one million casualties within the warfare by the tip of this month. The Russian casualty price can be accelerating, with an estimated 160,000 casualties within the first 4 months of 2025.

Russia makes an attempt to compensate for this battlefield devastation in two methods.

First, it’s remoted Ukraine by manipulating Trump’s need for political wins and enterprise offers. Russia, in showing to hunt an finish to the battle whereas providing no concessions, has stoked tensions between Zelenskyy and Trump, the place there was little love misplaced between the 2 to start with.

Second, Russia has elevated its assaults on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Giant-scale bombing does little to assist Russia on the battlefield. The assaults, in truth, put its forces at a drawback by redirecting munitions from army targets.

Assaults on civilians

The assaults on civilian infrastructure, nonetheless, are extra about instilling concern within the Ukrainian inhabitants and demonstrating American impotence to a Russian viewers.

Russia’s assaults on Ukrainian cities additionally spotlight Russia’s trump card: nuclear weapons. Russia, and particularly former Russian president Dimitry Medvedev, has repeatedly threatened nuclear warfare in an try and dissuade Ukraine’s supporters.

By bombing Ukrainian cities, albeit with standard munitions, Russia seeks to reveal its skill to deploy much more harmful weapons ought to the scenario name for it.

These Russian army missteps, mixed with a Russian economic system that’s structurally unsound, implies that Russia’s warfare effort is more and more fragile.

Weakening Asian alliances

Ukraine’s assault on Belaya additionally alerts Russian weak point to its nominal allies in Asia.

For the reason that begin of hostilities, Russia has relied on the tacit consent of China. This assist has taken the type of China buying Russian crude oil to take care of the Russian economic system and Chinese language residents unofficially preventing for Russia.

Belaya has been an important factor of Russia’s deterrence technique in Asia, which has come to rely extra closely on the Russian strategic nuclear menace. The lack of Russia to guard one among its key strategic property from a Ukrainian drone assault, mixed with the weak point of Russian standard forces in Ukraine, erodes its skill to place itself as a key ally to China.

The truth is, some Russian authorities proceed to view China as a serious menace.

On the similar time, Operation Spider’s Internet provides hope to the Ukrainian folks. It might additionally trigger Trump — who prefers to again winners — to ponder whether or not it’s Putin, not Zelenskyy, who lacks the playing cards to win the warfare.