On August 28, the Royal Thai Air Power (RTAF) introduced the Swedish Saab Gripen E as its most well-liked fight plane to exchange its growing old F-16A/Bs. Nonetheless, because the RTAF aspires to turn out to be among the finest air forces in Southeast Asia, it’s unlikely to be happy with 4+ era fight plane sooner or later. With denied entry to the U.S.-made fifth-generation F-35 Lightning II, Thailand could flip to South Korea to satisfy its future airpower wants.
The acquisition of latest fight plane is a “necessity” and a part of the Air Power’s bid to extend its capability. The Gripen E is a brand new era plane, broadly based mostly on the Gripen C/D, which the RTAF already operates with the Surat Thani-based Wing 7. The Gripen E will progressively substitute the Korat-based Wing 1’s F-16s, with plans for a complete of 12-14 fighters. The preliminary batch of latest Gripens, which is predicted to be permitted by the Thai Cupboard in October, will cowl 4 plane.
Following the alternative of Wing 1’s fighters, Wing 4, based mostly in Takhli, and Ubon-based Wing 21’s fight plane are subsequent in line for alternative. Procurement of the brand new plane is deliberate to begin within the late 2020s and the early 2030s, with procurement working by means of the mid-2040s.
Looking forward to the second and third part of RTAF’s fighter pressure modernization, it’s seemingly that the RTAF will contemplate submitting a request to purchase the fifth-generation F-35 from the USA, regardless of having already been denied entry to the state-of-the-art fighter as soon as. Washington’s refusal to promote the fighter to Bangkok was reportedly because of points with prolonged supply timelines and issues with the RTAF’s base infrastructure, airbase safety, and poor pilot coaching.
The extended timeframe for the fighter pressure alternative provides the RTAF loads of time to deal with U.S. considerations. However, Washington’s said causes to disclaim Bangkok entry to the Lightning II could have been disingenuous. Studying between the traces, the USA was extra involved over Bangkok and the Thai army’s ever-closer ties with China and the Folks’s Liberation Military (PLA), which raised the chance of exposing delicate U.S. army know-how to the PLA. Subsequently, barring any adjustments to the “brotherly” Sino-Thai relations, Washington is unlikely to vary its place on “inexperienced lighting” Bangkok’s entry to the U.S. jet.
This forces the RTAF to look elsewhere for options. To make amends, the USA supplied Thailand the superior F-15EG and F-16V fighters from Boeing and Lockheed Martin, respectively. The 2 plane characterize 4+ era fight plane. They’re each based mostly on trusted designs courting again to the early Seventies however boast closely up to date avionics, sensors, and electronic-warfare suites, drawing from the fifth-generation know-how discovered within the F-35. Nonetheless, they lack low-observable traits.
Thailand’s neighbors, together with Indonesia, have chosen comparable plane, the French-made Rafale and the F-15ID from the U.S., to spice up the nation’s airpower capabilities. Singapore, alternatively, stays the one Southeast Asian state that has acquired Washington’s approval for the acquisition of the fifth-generation F-35.
Chinese language and Russian fighters are unlikely to pose life like choices for Thailand, with the RTAF working solely Western fight plane. Furthermore, the RTAF values its shut relations with the U.S. and Australian air forces, which have supplied their Thai counterpart with high-end coaching and train alternatives, and the power to combine with equally geared up air forces.
In addition to coaching with its Western allies and companions, the RTAF is the one air pressure on this planet that workout routines with each the U.S. and Chinese language air forces. The Sino-Thai train Falcon Strike has elevated the 2 air forces’ familiarity with one another however is unlikely to outcome within the RTAF adopting Chinese language fight plane or doctrine.
Along with additional complicating Bangkok’s entry to Western army {hardware}, acquisition of Chinese language or Russian fighters would considerably complicate the RTAF’s personal need to construct a “networked air pressure.” As an alternative, it could create “siloed” capabilities because of restrictions on integrating Western and Chinese language/Russian fighters and different crucial methods.
However, the RTAF’s long-term improvement plans name for the acquisition of the newest know-how, together with fifth-generation fight plane that boast key traits, similar to low observability (“stealth”), information fusion, supercruise, and super-maneuverability. To comprehend its aspirational plan, Thailand may construct on its well-established protection ties with South Korea and its booming protection trade. The Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. Ltd. (DSME) delivered the Royal Thai Navy a guided missile frigate, HTMS Bhumibol Adulyadej, in January 2019, with a plan for an additional frigate sooner or later. Between 2015 and 2017, the RTAF positioned orders for a complete of 14 T-50TH plane, together with eight superior jet trainers and 6 FA-50 mild fight plane, from Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI).
The RTAF will seemingly rigorously examine the KAI’s KF-21 Boramae as a substitute for the F-35. During the last 5 years, Seoul has aggressively pushed its home-made fight plane to international locations in Southeast Asia and past. The KAI has discovered export success with its T-/FA-50 with Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and, most not too long ago, Malaysia. Tellingly, regardless of the RTAF’s shortlisting of the F-16V and Gripen E earlier within the yr, the CEO of the KAI, Kang Goo-young, didn’t draw back from pitching an improved, single-seat mild fighter model of the FA-50 and KF-21 for the RTAF’s future wants. The KAI can be recognized to be in negotiations with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia to fulfill every nation’s future multirole fight plane necessities.
The KF-21 sits technologically between the present 4+ and fifth-generation fight plane, incorporating built-in low-observable traits (save for inside weapons bays), making it probably an reasonably priced different to the F-35 with fewer political entry constraints. In latest worldwide arms and aerospace expos, the KAI has marketed its improvement plans for the KF-21, together with inside weapons bays to additional enhance the plane’s low-observable traits, growth of the sort’s multirole capabilities, a variety of latest Korean-designed munitions, and integration of uncrewed fight plane for manned-unmanned teaming.
As well as, at roughly $80 million per unit, the KF-21 compares favorably with different Western fighters in the identical class. The F-35A’s unit price got here right down to $82,5 million in 2024; being lastly cleared for serial manufacturing in March 2024 has helped decrease the plane’s hefty price ticket considerably. To place the F-35A’s price in context, the plane’s unit price is considered decrease than that of the twin-engine Boeing F-15EX, Eurofighter Hurricane, or Dassault Rafale multirole fight plane.
An much more vital price indicator is the plane’s price per flight hour. The KAI advertises the KF-21’s upkeep prices at $14,000 per flight hour, which is considerably decrease than that of the F-35A and much like Gripen E and F-16V. The comparatively low working prices makes the KF-21 a sexy choice for the cash-strapped RTAF, permitting it to maintain the present degree of flight hours.
Furthermore, the RTAF is trying to combine “loyal wingmen,” or uncrewed fight plane, in its future pressure design. The usage of “loyal wingmen” permits an air pressure to depend on fewer beautiful, crewed platforms and staff them up with scores of AI-enabled uncrewed wingmen to re-establish mass.
The KAI’s improvement plan for the KF-21 consists of integration of uncrewed fighters and adaptive aerial platforms as a part of South Korea’s next-generation fight air resolution. The uncrewed platforms will provide help to crewed plane in air-to-air, air-to-ground, reconnaissance, and digital warfare duties. This makes the KF-21 effectively match for the RTAF’s future functionality improvement plans and offers Bangkok with a low political price however probably excessive industrial return different to the F-35.
Thailand requires a powerful know-how switch regime for any protection acquisition program. Seoul has already demonstrated its willingness to switch know-how to Bangkok and supply sturdy after-sales technical help for its {hardware}. Already realized tasks have included buildup of the RTAF’s coaching and simulation functionality and upkeep capability.
To associate up within the improvement of future uncrewed fight plane, Thailand Aerospace Business (TAI) is effectively positioned to profit. The TAI has a longtime capability within the analysis and improvement of uncrewed methods created by means of earlier industrial collaborations and know-how switch. The TAI has already delivered RT-1 surveillance and reconnaissance drones to the Thai air pressure and navy. The TAI can be effectively positioned to associate with the KAI or different Korean aerospace firms as a part of any offset applications related to potential future fighter gross sales.
Because the RTAF’s long-term pressure modernization plan’s first part seems to have moved ahead, the second and third phases will search to exchange remaining growing old fighters from the early 2030s to mid-2040s. This can present the RTAF alternatives to re-evaluate its pressure design and necessities based mostly on shut monitoring of technological change and maturity of methods getting into service elsewhere.
Regardless of the Royal Thai Air Power’s need to turn out to be among the finest air forces within the area and one based mostly on excessive know-how, its entry to probably the most superior army {hardware} from the USA is difficult by Bangkok’s shut ties with Beijing and the PLA. The RTAF should weigh options to U.S. fighters. This can create house for, particularly, South Korea and the KF-21, which Seoul has marketed aggressively in Southeast Asia. Because the KF-21 matures, it could effectively discover an vital place in Southeast Asian air forces, together with Thailand, within the late 2020s and early 2030s as a substitute for the F-35 and different Western fight plane.
