With Donald Trump’s victory within the U.S. presidential election, a brand new chapter of worldwide relations begins. One in every of his signature statecraft strikes, buying and selling intangibles for tangibles, will current conundrums for South Korea, particularly concerning the way forward for the USA Forces Korea (USFK) and the protection burden-sharing negotiations amid Trump’s renewed deal with isolationist, “America First,” and cost-effective international insurance policies.
Though the precise quantity fluctuates, the price of stationing U.S. troops in Korea, in line with the Authorities Accountability Workplace, was $13.4 billion from 2016 to 2019. That equates to a mean of $3.5 billion per yr, with South Korea kicking in roughly $1 billion in burden-sharing funds. The primary Trump administration questioned the $2 billion deficit, consistent with its behavior of downplaying the intangible value of abroad allies akin to South Korea and Japan – two essential gamers in sustaining regional stability and counterbalancing China and North Korea. Many consultants predict Trump 2.0 is not going to digress from this stance. Throughout a marketing campaign speech, Trump bashed the South Korea-U.S. burden-sharing association, naming Seoul a “cash machine” able to paying $10 billion a yr – 10 occasions the present contribution.
In his first time period, Trump used the specter of USFK withdrawal as leverage in burden-sharing negotiations. Nonetheless, in 2025, such an motion may show disastrous, as it would ship the unsuitable sign to Kim Jong Un and his regime. North Korea is armed with nuclear weapons and has 1 million energetic troopers. Even a really conservative estimate assesses that one other Korean Warfare may value the USA $2 trillion, a value many occasions larger than the price of sustaining a sturdy USFK with South Korea’s contributions. Many analysts additionally argue that if the USA’ East Asian allies have been to fall, authoritarian nations China and Russia would have entry to the western Pacific Ocean any time, which poses an unprecedented existential risk.
Whereas U.S. withdrawal from Korea is an possibility, it might doubtless deal a last blow to the USA’ already waning dedication to uphold the liberal worldwide order. The “hub and spokes” bilateral alliance system would progressively, but inevitably, erode, with Washington’s promise to defend the liberal order and like-minded nations from hurt more and more considered as a bounced examine.
Earlier U.S. administrations’ agreements with South Korea on partial protection value protection underscore that such “intangible” elements have lengthy been a part of the equation. The query is whether or not the Trump administration will issue such issues into its personal deal-making.
Seoul made hurried efforts to finalize a five-year renewal of the burden-sharing settlement simply weeks earlier than the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The brand new plan requires Seoul to extend its contribution to $1.47 billion within the first yr (up by 8.3 p.c from the present $1.2 billion) to assist the USFK and related logistics. Whereas the deal is legitimate for 5 years, Trump retains the authority to provoke renegotiations of each international treaties and government orders.
That stated, the safety panorama has undergone drastic adjustments since Trump was final in workplace. Whereas China is quickly placing out new warships to say dominance within the South China Sea and Jap China Sea, the USA Navy (USN) is discovering it tough to match the quantity because of the excessive decline of the U.S. shipbuilding business. Though nonetheless proficient at producing state-of-the-art naval vessels, Washington not has a broader civilian shipbuilding ecosystem, producing solely 0.2 p.c of the world’s tonnage. Towards this backdrop, the U.S. has already sought assist from South Korea and Japan, the world’s second and third maritime business powers, respectively. Though by regulation the USN can’t buy vessels from its allies, it might have its warships overhauled and repaired at South Korean and Japanese dockyards. Hanwha, a Korean protection conglomerate, just lately signed a contract with the USN for a upkeep, restore, and overhaul (MRO) deal anticipated to exceed $60 billion yearly.
Trump is conscious of this. Throughout a congratulatory name with President Yoon Suk-yeol on November 7 (Korean time), President-elect Trump emphasised the significance of the South Korea-U.S. alliance and particularly highlighted the capabilities of South Korea’s shipbuilding business. Whereas it’s untimely to attract definitive conclusions at this level, contemplating Trump’s unpredictable nature, the strategic benefit of repairing and sustaining many USN vessels near China is a possible bargaining chip for South Korea in future burden-sharing negotiations. The diminished U.S. shipbuilding business can’t be resuscitated in a single day, making the bustling dockyards of Seoul an important benefit for the USN. Even when the USA had ample services, in contrast with the cross-Pacific route to succeed in U.S. dockyards, staying inside the waters of South Korea and Japan saves a lot time, gas, expenditure, and manpower fatigue, permitting the USN to take care of one of the best fight readiness posture within the Pacific.
Inside Washington, whatever the celebration affiliation, South Korea’s readiness to function a “forward-operating dockyard” is considered as a big U.S. nationwide safety “asset.” At this juncture, then, there appears to be extra flexibility for South Korea to navigate underneath Trump 2.0 than in his first time period. This doesn’t indicate that negotiating with him can be simple, however Seoul now possesses extra leverage than earlier than. Even when the brand new protection burden-sharing negotiations convey a excessive price ticket, and even when the 2 nations at occasions disagree, the alliance is unlikely to falter.
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