Russia has lengthy used harsh climate as a defensive ally. Throughout Napoleon’s 1812 invasion, his Grand Military was defeated as winter closed in – the bottom grew to become impassable and logistical help to his military collapsed. Equally, Hitler’s Operation Barbarossa in 1941-42 was halted by heavy rains and deep mud adopted by freezing temperatures.
As we speak, in a distinct form of conflict, Russia is once more turning to its previous ally, harsh climate – however this time to assist in its offensive in opposition to Ukraine.
Ukraine’s intensive use of small, low-cost drones has remodeled assault and defence methods throughout the entrance strains. The Fashionable Struggle Institute studies that drones are answerable for round 70% of Russia’s battlefield casualties, though it’s unclear which form of drones are killing in higher numbers: loitering one-way assault drones (referred to as “kamikaze drones”) or quadcopter first-person view (FPV) drones, armed with small explosives.
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How drone assaults are altering the principles and the prices of the Ukraine conflict
Past direct strikes, small drones play a significant function in intelligence gathering, surveillance and reconnaissance. They permit Ukrainian models to establish targets and coordinate floor operations with far higher precision. Actual-time aerial imagery allows artillery crews to quickly alter hearth, making bombardments extra correct – and extra deadly.
Drones have change into the eyes and, more and more, the palms of Ukraine’s floor forces, rising their defensive effectiveness in opposition to the bigger and infrequently better-equipped Russian floor forces. Mass Ukrainian use of FPV and one-way-attack drones has considerably improved defensive effectiveness, blunting bigger Russian floor drive assaults through the use of real-time concentrating on knowledge and exact strikes.
Either side within the conflict additionally often deploy digital jamming, rendering radio-controlled FPV drones inoperable. Russia has, of necessity, change into a world chief on this space.
The jamming disrupts the radio hyperlinks and video feeds that pilots depend on for navigation and concentrating on. This locations Ukraine’s forces, which rely closely on drones to offset Russia’s benefits, at a substantial drawback.
Dangerous climate and drones
When unhealthy climate combines with digital interference, the impact is much more damaging. Snow, fog, wind and chilly already restrict drone endurance and visibility – sharply decreasing Ukraine’s technological edge in aerial reconnaissance and precision battlefield drone strikes.
Russia, in distinction, positive factors relative benefit in such circumstances. Its older, heavier ground-based programs – tanks, artillery and armoured autos – are extra resilient in opposition to poor climate. The battlefield turns into a spot the place Russia’s attritional strategy to conflict grinds out bloody advances.
Small quadcopter drones are mild, have restricted endurance and are simply influenced by climate. Take the DJI Mavic 3 collection, utilized by many Ukrainian models for frontline reconnaissance. It’s only efficient in temperatures between –10°C and +40 °C and winds beneath about 12 metres per second. Robust gusts or freezing climate can rapidly push this small drone off beam.
Extra superior Ukrainian programs, such because the winged Shark uncrewed aerial system, can function from –15 °C to +45 °C and face up to winds as much as 20 metres per second. But even these are restricted to dry circumstances: rain or snow can floor them.
Madeleine Kelly/ZUMA/Alamy Reside Information
In chilly circumstances, batteries drain extra rapidly, reducing each flight time and operational vary. Icing can floor giant numbers of drones if it adjustments the traits of the quadcopter propellers – ice makes propeller blades thicker, heavier and fewer aerodynamic, decreasing efficiency.
Winged drones can undergo from wing-tip icing, which adjustments their flight traits – decreasing raise, rising drag and the hazard of stalling, and degrading management. Fog and snow additionally cut back visibility, limiting the flexibility to establish or observe targets.
Russian offensive
In October 2025, Russia timed a number of giant floor assaults to coincide with poor climate. This strategy exploited circumstances that considerably diminished Ukraine’s means to defend itself with drones. Fog, rain and cloud cowl made small reconnaissance drones unreliable and even unflyable. Visibility dropped so low that assaults on particular person troopers change into far much less efficient.
In concept, Ukraine’s allies can offset a few of this loss via satellite tv for pc intelligence. US reconnaissance satellites can nonetheless collect beneficial info on cloudy days through the use of artificial aperture radar to detect floor actions. But even these superior programs can’t see visually via thick cloud banks or heavy rainstorms.
Traditionally, Russia’s extreme climate served a defensive objective, turning again invading armies from Napoleon to Hitler. Within the current conflict, nevertheless, Russia is utilizing the identical harsh local weather offensively, turning pure concealment right into a tactical benefit because it advances throughout Ukrainian floor.
Winter has not but arrived, however Ukrainian and Russian army planners might be watching the climate. Ukraine’s vaunted means to innovate and reply to Russian ways might be examined even additional within the months forward.
