Oregon Cannabis Oversupply in 2025

There may be an excessive amount of weed in Oregon. There may be not sufficient weed in Oregon.

Permit me to elucidate. On February 1, the OLCC launched its 2025 legislative report on native, regulated marijuana provide. We get these reviews each two years, as required by ORS 475C.529. They are typically downers. And this one might be the worst one but.

The report got here in as anticipated; which is to say, each provide and demand are trending badly for Oregon operators. Particularly:

“[t]he retail median price-per-gram of usable marijuana is on the lowest level the market has seen since legalization. The low value will be attributable to oversupply.”

Costs aren’t simply low. They’ve by no means been decrease. The report confirms the conclusions in my State of the State put up from December 19, 2024, the place I highlighted a static variety of OLCC licensees, a static enforcement atmosphere (inside and outdoors the OLCC system), and Oregon’s largest fall harvest, ever. I predicted downward pricing stress. I might go on and on about all this stuff, however I don’t imply to bore you, and we’d like some encouraging phrases.

I’ve one other manner to consider the report. Oregon shouldn’t be producing an excessive amount of hashish. We’ve stellar terroir, scrumptious appellations and virtuosic growers. The issue ‘spherical right here is we can not export it. We are able to’t ship our file harvest to non-agricultural states, and locations the place hashish can solely be grown in buildings. Listed below are some causes:

Federal regulation.

Right here is a few coloration on that:

Congress can not get it completed. The most effective we bought was a invoice out of the Home in 2022.
The manager department’s proposed rulemaking might transfer marijuana to Schedule III. Perhaps. However this might not enable interstate gross sales.
The leggiest lawsuit difficult the federal Managed Substances Act wouldn’t enable for interstate commerce, even when they win.
The export invoice Oregon handed in 2019 by no means “goes dwell”, as a result of state of federal regulation and coverage.
Oregon’s legislative efforts across the edges on interstate switch of seeds and such have puttered out.

Early native thinkers just like the Craft Hashish Affiliation (RIP) and Adam Smith have been forward of their time. Oversupply within the OLCC market has been round because the Oregon program began. Advocates pushing for interstate gross sales and federal legalization are making the one sensible argument.

In the previous few years, native business appears to have gone away from this. You’ll hear complaints that we can not promote hashish to different states, even whereas business litigates in opposition to the prevailing testing requirements in different states. In that sense, Oregon shouldn’t be effectively positioned for when the floodgates open.

I do hope the floodgates open. That’s the solely factor that would put an considerable dent in oversupply, even when the fires return within the fall of 2025; even when the OLCC begins speaking powerful once more; and even when we get some tax aid via federal rescheduling. Because the report concludes:

“The Oregon leisure marijuana market . . . is frequently deprived by {the marketplace} being restricted to Oregon. Yr after yr, provide has outpaced demand.

Till the federal authorities creates pathways to interstate commerce, the Oregon leisure marijuana market will probably be characterised by variations on the identical theme: a aggressive market that options low costs for shoppers however low margins for companies. As we enter 2025, it stays to be seen how slim the margins will probably be and the way effectively the Oregon hashish business can function inside them.”

I’d add to this the truth that with record-high output and record-low pricing, Oregon growers will probably be incentivized to promote hashish out the again door or depart the OLCC program altogether. Choices there embrace the intoxicating hemp market or just assuming the dangers of rising unlicensed weed and promoting interstate.

The underside line is it’s tough to make any cash rising hashish in Oregon if you don’t personal the land. And it’s a disgrace now we have an excessive amount of weed in Oregon, for Oregon, however not for different states.