By the afternoon of Friday, August 22, information stories confirmed that Washington, D.C. had gone almost ten days with out a murder. Assuming that there have been no homicides for the remainder of yesterday, and we are able to discover no report of that, there would have been ten days with out a murder in D.C. However since we’re not sure, we are going to report the estimated chances for D.C. going for each 9 and ten days with out a murder. We couldn’t even discover any proof of a murder in D.C. as of midnight ET on Saturday, August twenty third (the eleventh day).
How possible is it that 9 straight homicide-free days occurred by likelihood? Utilizing the murder fee from the primary seven months of 2025, the chance comes out to only 1.5%—properly under the 5% threshold usually used to mark a outcome as statistically important.
Knowledge for 2024
Washington, D.C. recorded 187 homicides in 2024, a each day fee of 0.5137.
Utilizing a Poisson distribution, the chance of no homicides in a given day is: 0.598. So, there’s a few 59.8% likelihood of a single day passing with zero homicides. Assuming for simplicity that every day is impartial of all others, the chance of 9 no-homicide days = (0.598)**9 = 0.0098 or 0.98%.
If this may go for ten days, the chance is 0.58%. if it could possibly go for 11 days (so additionally no homicides on Saturday August twenty third), the chance is 0.35%. If it could possibly go for 12 days (by means of Sunday, August twenty fourth), it’s 0.209%. If it could possibly go for 14 days (by means of Tuesday, August twenty sixth), it’s 0.075%.
To place it otherwise, as of the eleventh day, that’s the equal of 1 out of 286 likelihood of D.C. going for that lengthy with out a murder occurring.
Knowledge for the primary seven months of 2025
Washington, D.C. recorded 99 murder for the primary seven months of 2024, a each day fee of 0.467.
Utilizing a Poisson distribution, the chance of no homicides in a given day is: 0.627. So, there’s a few 62.7% likelihood of a single day passing with zero homicides. Assuming that every day is impartial of all others, the chance of 9 no-homicide days = (0.627)**9 = 0.015 or 1.5%.
If this may go for ten days, the chance is 0.94%. if it could possibly go for 11 days (so additionally no homicides on Saturday August twenty third), the chance is 0.59%.If it could possibly go for 12 days (by means of Sunday, August twenty fourth), it’s 0.369%. If it could possibly go for 14 days (by means of Tuesday, August twenty sixth), it’s 0.145%
To place it otherwise, as of the eleventh day, that’s the equal of 1 out of 169.5 likelihood of D.C. going for that lengthy with out a murder occurring.
Who’re the victims of murder in D.C.?
A Nationwide Institute for Felony Justice Reform (NICJR) evaluation for D.C. homicides between 2019 and 2021 discovered that about 96% of victims had been black. For non-fatal shootings, 97% of non-fatal taking pictures suspects had been black.
