News Coverage of our Real Clear Investigations Piece on “Stealth Edit: FBI Quietly Revises Violent Crime Stats”

Former President Donald Trump has been hit with quite a few “fact-checks” on the marketing campaign path which have cited FBI statistics to take care of violent crime is falling in America.

Nevertheless, the bureau quietly adjusted its figures for 2022 in current weeks — and the brand new numbers present that offenses really ticked up general. 

The obvious stealth edit to the bureau’s statistics, first reported by RealClearInvestigations, exhibits that the uncooked variety of violent crime incidents — together with murders, assaults and rapes — rose to 1,256,671 in 2022 from 1,197,930 in 2021, a rise of 4.9%.

Initially, the bureau projected that the violent crime charge relative to the US inhabitants had slipped by 2.1% in 2022 in comparison with 2021.

However the FBI’s adjustment now means that the speed of violent crime really jumped by about 4.5% over the identical interval. 

The upward revision went unmentioned within the bureau’s annual crime figures press launch from September of this yr, which introduced that violent crime dropped by roughly 3% year-over-year in 2023.

The Crime Prevention Analysis Heart first recognized the FBI’s refined repair, citing a spreadsheet breaking down the unique information. . . .

Ryan King, “FBI quietly revised 2022 crime information to indicate violent offenses rose quite than dropped,” New York Put up, October 16, 2024.

“The query naturally arises: ought to the FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed?” John Lott, an economist who labored below Trump on the justice division, wrote within the RealClearInvestigations piece.

Kamala Harris, the vice chairman and Democratic presidential candidate, has cited the most recent FBI statistics as an indication of how she and Mr Biden are cracking down on crime.

“New information submitted to the FBI confirms that our devoted efforts and collaborative partnerships with regulation enforcement are working,” she mentioned after the 2023 figures had been launched in September.

“Individuals are safer now than after we took workplace. Our progress is constant this yr and builds on substantial decreases throughout the earlier years of our administration.”

Ms Harris, who ceaselessly touts her credentials as a prosecutor in her marketing campaign for the White Home, added: “Whereas we’ve made nice progress, we aren’t stopping now.”

The FBI has been approached for remark by The Telegraph.

Benedict Smith, “Violent crime went up, not down below Biden, revised FBI numbers present,” The Telegraph (UK), October 16, 2024.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation’s 2023 crime information information launch didn’t point out that the violent crime charge was adjusted in 2022 after the preliminary information was launched, wrote John R. Lott Jr., president of the Crime Prevention Analysis Heart, in a RealClearPolitics investigative report on Wednesday.

In September 2023, the FBI reported that the nation’s violent crime charge fell by 2.1% however the FBI “quietly revised these numbers, releasing new information that exhibits violent crime elevated in 2022 by 4.5%,” in response to RealClearPolitics.

Lott wrote that the FBI web site that states that the 2022 “violent crime charge has been up to date for inclusion in CIUS, 2023.” . . .

Nicholas Ballasy, “FBI 2023 crime information information launch doesn’t point out 2022 violent crime information was revised greater: Report,” Simply the Information, October 16, 2024

“After Democrats and journalists have spent your complete election cycle claiming that crime is down,” wrote Greg Value on X, sharing a graph from the Crime Prevention Analysis Heart, “the FBI three weeks earlier than an election revises their crime statistics exhibiting that crime elevated by 4.5% in 2022 as a substitute of dropping 2.1%. Unbelievable.”

Kevin Haggerty, “FBI revises crime information as voting begins, Dem-touted lower was really a 4.5% improve: ‘Trump was proper,’,” Enterprise & Politics, October 16, 2024.

RealClearPolitics first famous a “stealth edit” made by Bureau officers of their crime information from 2022 by way of September 2023 the place preliminary information confirmed violent crime falling by 2.1% throughout that interval. On Wednesday, RCP reported that the FBI report now exhibits violent crime rose by 4.5% in that point span, vindicating President Trump and the households of homicide victims who say a safe southern border could have saved their family members from tragic ends. In a press launch final month, the FBI public relations workforce made no point out of the drastic change.

Even when one knew the place to look, the brand new numbers don’t instantly come out. Reporter John R. Lott Jr. wrote that he first observed a cryptic line in an FBI replace to the web site which said, “The 2022 violent crime charge has been up to date for inclusion in CIUS, 2023.” The one approach to see the change, he wrote, was to obtain the present information and examine it to the beforehand posted information which has since been eliminated.

It’s uncertain whether or not media retailers that dutifully lined the “drop” in violent crime will now acknowledge that charges have gone up. Shortly after the FBI launched final yr’s information, a headline in USA As we speak screamed, “Violent crime dropped for third straight yr in 2023, together with homicide and rape.” Carl Moody, a professor on the Faculty of William & Mary who makes a speciality of finding out crime, mentioned the sudden and silent change made FBI figures “laborious to belief” for him going ahead. “The massive modifications in 2021 and 2022, particularly with out a proof, make it troublesome to belief the FBI information,” he advised RCP. “It’s as much as the FBI to elucidate what they’ve achieved, and so they haven’t defined these giant modifications,” Dr. Thomas Marvell, the president of Justec Analysis, a felony justice statistical analysis group, added. . . .

Mark Steffen, “JUST IN: Trump Vindicated After Bombshell Report Proves Debate Moderator Useless Incorrect,” Trending Politics, October 16, 2024.

Crime is the third-ranking voter concern. Detrimental assaults on Harris ought to emphasize that violent crime has risen steadily throughout her vice presidency. Final week, the FBI admitted that as a substitute of falling below the Biden-Harris administration, the general crime and homicide charges have risen. Dr. John Lott of the Crime Prevention Heart has documented the info. The media can’t be trusted to report this truthfully, so the Trump workforce should do it by way of promoting. . . .

John Roberts, “How Trump can shut the deal,” Washington Examiner, October 17, 2024.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly instructed that crime is much worse than authorities officers care to confess, notably in Democrat-run cities.

Democratic operatives and the liberal media have claimed the reverse is true, citing incomplete FBI information indicating a drop in violent crime within the first two years of the Biden-Harris administration.

It seems that Trump was right when he toldTime journal that the “FBI fudged the numbers” and presumably additionally when he suggestedduring the second presidential debate that the FBI information “was a fraud” — simply as he seems to have been right about U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ bogus jobs numbers.

The Crime Prevention Analysis Heart just lately reported that the FBI stealthily modified its crime information for 2022 — a yr by which cities like Phoenix, New York Metropolis, and Los Angeles did not submit crime information.

Whereas the bureau initially claimed that violent crime fell by 2.1% that yr — a declare USA Todayand different publications have made ample use of for Democrat officers’ profit — the FBI subsequently adjusted its statistics to mirror that violent crime really spiked by no less than 4.5%. . . .

Joseph MacKinnon, “FBI covertly modifications its crime stats for 2022, revealing Trump was proper all alongside,” Blaze, October 16, 2024.

However the director of the Crime Prevention Analysis Heart says to not imagine imagine media reviews that crime is declining, and statistics from the Division of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics seem to assist him. From 2019 to 2023, violent crime victimization elevated by greater than 20 %, excluding easy assault. . . .

Jeremy G. Weber, “Statistical controversy is not any crime,” The Hill, October 17, 2024.

An investigation by RealClearInvestigations discovered that the FBI up to date its 2022 crime statistics in September, exhibiting that quite than a 2.1% drop in violent crime as initially reported, the USA really skilled a 4.5% rise in violent crime. The brand new dataset confirmed 1000’s extra murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.

Former President Donald Trump has been hit with quite a few “fact-checks” on the marketing campaign path which have cited FBI statistics to take care of violent crime is falling in America. . . .

The Crime Prevention Analysis Heart first recognized the FBI’s refined repair, citing a spreadsheet breaking down the unique information. . . .

Sheenu Gupta, “FBI Revises Crime Information, Revealing Enhance In Violent Crime,” The Printed Reporter, October 17, 2024.

As John R. Lott Jr. explains as soon as once more through RealClearInvestigations, RCI found the change by way of a cryptic reference on the FBI web site that states: “The 2022 violent crime charge has been up to date for inclusion in CIUS, 2023.” However there isn’t a point out that the numbers elevated. One solely sees the change by downloading the FBI’s new crime information and evaluating it to the file launched final yr.

After the FBI launched its new crime information in September, a USA As we speak headline learn: “Violent crime dropped for third straight yr in 2023, together with homicide and rape.” 

It’s been over three weeks for the reason that FBI launched the revised information. The Bureau’s lack of acknowledgment or rationalization in regards to the important change considerations researchers.

“I’ve checked the info on whole violent crime from 2004 to 2022,” Carl Moody, a professor on the Faculty of William & Mary who makes a speciality of finding out crime, advised RealClearInvestigations. “There have been no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, there have been small modifications of lower than one share level. The massive modifications in 2021 and 2022, particularly with out a proof, make it troublesome to belief the FBI information.”

“It’s as much as the FBI to elucidate what they’ve achieved, and so they haven’t defined these giant modifications,” Dr. Thomas Marvell, the president of Justec Analysis, a felony justice statistical analysis group, advised RCI.

The FBI didn’t reply to RCI’s repeated requests for remark.

In depth Revisions in Violent Crime Stats

The precise modifications in crimes are in depth. The up to date information for 2022 report that there have been 80,029 extra violent crimes than in 2021. There have been a further 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. The query naturally arises: ought to the FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed? . . .

Tyler Durden, “Stealth Edit: FBI Quietly Revises Violent Crime Stats Increased,” Zero Hedge, October 17, 2024.

John R. Lott, a revered researcher who wrote the article, notes that “whereas the FBI claims that critical violent crime has fallen by 5.8% since Biden took workplace, the NCVS numbers present that whole violent crime has risen by 55.4%. Rapes are up by 42%, theft by 63%, and aggravated assault by 55% throughout Biden’s time period. For the reason that NCVS began, the biggest earlier improve over three years was 27% in 2006, so the rise below Biden was barely greater than twice as giant.”

That is far more according to a variety of what individuals are experiencing. Crime is excessive. Everybody is aware of it besides the ‘specialists’ and ‘politicians’ who’re answerable for the mess and whose job is to cowl it up. . . .

Workers, “FBI Faked Crime Drop By Leaving Out 1,699 Murders,” Washington Customary, October 17, 2024.

It’s no secret that the Biden-Harris administration has been mendacity to us – publishing optimistic financial information that they tout, whereas quietly revising lowermonths later after reaching their desired outcome.

Now we discover out that they’ve additionally been mendacity about crime statistics – one thing that writer John R. Lott has been monitoring and protecting extensively.

— Buttigieg’s ‘Crime Down Below Biden’ Declare Doesn’t Maintain Up: John Lott Jr.

— FBI Information On Lively Shootings Is Deceptive: John Lott Jr.

— Media Push Deceptive Crime Stats To Shield Democrat Narrative

Workers, “FBI simply quietly admitted President Trump was one hundred pc RIGHT but once more…,” Revolver, October 17, 2024.

“For some cause, the media, they did decide the crime information that they suppose goes and makes the Democrats look nearly as good as potential. After which even when the crime information that they’ve relied on seems by the very supply of that information to be mistaken, none of them repair it,” John Lott, the founder and president of the Crime Prevention Analysis Heart, advised Fox Information Digital in a Zoom interview this week.

The FBI launched its annual Crime within the Nation information for 2022 final yr, which discovered a 2.1% lower in violent crimes in comparison with 2021, Lott defined.

The information was lauded by Democrats and the media as a part of a turning level for crime woes within the U.S. following the crime wave of 2020, when defund-the-police protests and riots swept the nation, and the pandemic’s stay-at-home orders upended each day life. . . .

M Dowling, “FBI Hid Information: It’s Not Down; It’s Method Up,” Unbiased Sentinel, October 16, 2024.

With lower than two months earlier than the 2024 election the FBI quietly stealth edits their violent crime statistics for 2022 to indicate a considerable improve in violent crime versus the lower it confirmed earlier than – which Democrats have been enthusiastically citing each likelihood they get.

Actual Clear Investigations reporter John R. Lott Jr. mentioned the undisclosed modifications in crime statistics present violent crime elevated 4.5% in 2022. The FBI’s statistics beforehand confirmed a 2.1% drop in violent crime.

Lott mentioned this stealth change, made with none rationalization, makes it robust to belief the FBI’s crime statistics.

Right here’s extra from RCI: . . .

Workers, “BREAKING: Violent crime all of the sudden will increase in 2022 after FBI stealth edits crime stats,” The Proper Scoop, October 16, 2024.

RealClearInvestigations simply revealed a bit by John Lott, revealing that the preliminary numbers have been very quietly revised from a modest decline in crime to a considerable improve in 2022. The “error” was not minor–it was enormous. . . . [Long quote from the RCI piece]

David Strom, “FBI Juked the Crime Stats, Quietly Revises,” Scorching Air, October 16, 2024.

Final yr, when the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) initially issued its “closing” nationwide crime information for 2022, the bureau reported that the nation’s violent crime charge decreased by 2.1 %. Democrats rapidly latched onto this purported % change to counter Donald Trump’s claims that crime is hovering below the Biden-Harris administration.

Nevertheless, a yr later, the FBI has “quietly revised” these numbers, in response to a RealClearInvestigations report by crime watchdog Dr. John Lott, correcting the dataset to indicate that violent crime really elevated in 2022 by 4.5 %. This implies the FBI was approach off — by 6.6 share factors. These additions embrace 1000’s extra murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults, Lott says.

The federal regulation enforcement made no point out of this “stealth edit” in its September 2024 press launch.

Lott, who served as senior adviser for analysis and statistics within the Workplace of Justice Packages and the Workplace of Authorized Coverage on the U.S. Justice Division, found this correction by way of “a cryptic reference” on the FBI web site stating: “The 2022 violent crime charge has been up to date for inclusion in CIUS, 2023.” The imprecise editor’s word didn’t disclose that these figures elevated. Lott says the change can solely be seen by downloading the FBI’s newly edited crime information and evaluating it to the preliminary file launched in 2023.

In accordance with Lott’s evaluation, the revisions are “in depth.” There have been 80,029 extra violent crimes than in 2021, together with a further 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. How did the FBI initially miss so many murders, provided that the overwhelming majority of them are reported to authorities?

“The query naturally arises: ought to the FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed?” Lott additionally asks, because the FBI’s preliminary underreporting casts doubt on the reliability of its information previous and current. Elevating considerations about information manipulation within the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, information hawks are additionally questioning whether or not the federal company is fudging the numbers. . . .

Mia Cathell, “The FBI’s Violent Crime Stats All of the sudden Look a Lot Completely different,” Townhall, October 16, 2024.

When the FBI launched its crime statistics for 2022 final September, the company touted a 2.1% lower in violent crime. However as Dr. John Lott, head of the Crime Prevention Analysis Heart, has found, the FBI quietly revised these stats a number of weeks in the past, and their most up-to-date information exhibits violent crime really elevated by 4.5%. 

So why didn’t the FBI publicly announce their revised stats as a substitute of burying the crime improve in a short word on the FBI web site? As Lott particulars, the brand new figures reveal tens of 1000’s extra crimes than what was initially reported. . . .

Whereas that’s undoubtedly the case, Lott spoke to a number of felony justice specialists who had been troubled by the FBI basically hiding their revised crime information pointing to an increase in violent offenses in 2022. . . .

Cam Edwards, “Lott Calls Out FBI Over ‘Stealth Edits’ to Crime Information,” Bearing Arms, October 16, 2024.

RealClearInvestigations (RCI) has found that the bureau stealth-edited its crime stats for 2022, and that change doesn’t look so good for Democrats.

“When the FBI initially launched the ‘closing’ crime information for 2022 in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime charge fell by 2.1%,” John R. Lott Jr. writes at RCI. “This rapidly turned, and stays, a Democratic Occasion speaking level to counter Donald Trump’s claims of hovering crime.”

“However the FBI has quietly revised these numbers, releasing new information that exhibits violent crime elevated in 2022 by 4.5%,” Lott provides. “The brand new information contains 1000’s extra murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.”

A 6.6% revision isn’t a negligible quantity, but the FBI hasn’t talked about the change, though it’s been three weeks for the reason that revision. The bureau’s September 2024 press releasedoesn’t point out the upper crime numbers, though it harps on “hate crimes” as if they’re crucial subject.

“With the changes, there’s a internet improve of 80,029 extra violent crimes, 1,699 extra murders, 7,780 extra rapes, 33,459 extra robberies, and 37,091 extra aggravated assaults,” the Crime Prevention Analysis Heart (CPRC) factors out. Once more, numbers like these are nothing to sneeze at. . . .

Chris Queen, “FBI Quietly Revises Crime Stats to Much less Democrat-Pleasant Numbers,” PJ Media, October 16, 2024.