Multi-Billion Dollar Missteps: How the West Handed Pakistan’s Air Power Bid to China – Quwa

Shortly after Pakistan’s temporary, however intense, battle with India from 07-10 Might 2025, the Authorities of Pakistan had posted on the social media platform X, revealing that the Chinese language proposed a serious arms package deal of 40 J-35AE next-generation fighter plane (NGFA), the KJ-500 airborne early warning and management (AEW&C) system, and HQ-19 ballistic missile defence (BMD) system. 

The publish was withdrawn shortly thereafter, however its particulars largely aligned with Quwa’s forecasting of the Pakistan Air Power’s (PAF) procurement roadmap. 

The thesis was that the PAF had lengthy sought a fighter plane optimized for offensive missions and would search a platform to each personal this position and progressively supplant the F-16A/B Block-15s, which might begin reaching 50 years of age from 2030. 

In Quwa’s Report on Pakistan’s Air Warfare Plans for 2020-2030, this writer acknowledged that the PAF will search to construct devoted offensive air wings comprising the NGFA, a brand new AEW&C (offering a lot greater radar output than the Erieye), and unmanned fight aerial autos (UCAVs). The present PAF management acknowledged that it’ll search the J-31/J-35 platform for the NGFA piece, however the authorities’s publish on X outlined that the AEW&C enter is also packaged with the fighters.

Given the info, one might fairly infer that the PAF would search a brand new fighter to supplant the F-16s, and that the J-35AE could be a pure choice from the framing that it represents a real generational leap. Moreover, one might infer that, for the PAF to construct next-generation air warfighting capacities, resembling real-time cooperative engagement functionality (CEC), it could have to improve the broader stack, due to this fact underscoring the obvious want for a brand new AEW&C system.

Nonetheless, curiously, the U.S. State Division’s current approval of an improve package deal for the PAF’s F-16s additionally reveals one other key element: the precise date by which this new air-warfighting package deal have to be inducted: 2040. In its proposal to Congress, the U.S. State Division acknowledged that the contract to improve the PAF’s F-16s would “lengthen the plane life by 2040 whereas addressing essential flight security issues.”

Thus, by connecting these particulars – i.e., the pulled X publish concerning the Chinese language proposal and the F-16 improve program – one can see the define of a concrete requirement to improve what the PAF historically termed as its “tip of the spear.” 

It’s attainable that the requirement requires round 40 new-generation fighters, in addition to a appropriate ‘stack’ – i.e., next-generation tactical knowledge hyperlinks, an offboard sensor and administration system by way of an AEW&C, and a munitions stockpile. Lastly, it appears the PAF needs to induct this package deal by 2040, probably coinciding with the timeframe of changing its oldest F-16A/B Block-15s, which had been inducted within the Nineteen Eighties. 

This requirement will definitely quantity to a serious multi-billion-dollar program as soon as one elements within the upfront acquisition value, the required adjustments within the PAF’s working and logistics infrastructure, and recurring long-term assist/upkeep prices. With all these elements at play, one can argue that China is poised to run away with a essential arms program, with no obvious competitors from the world’s different distributors.

To be clear, this isn’t to dismiss the inherent worth of the Chinese language package deal; certainly, it’s the just one that provides a stealth fighter with a whole system, together with CEC and, probably, manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T). Nonetheless, the intriguing query is why and the way China seemingly emerged as the only bidder for this important venture.

On this writer’s evaluation, 5 elements probably led to this consequence: (1) the commonly restricted capability of Pakistan’s funds and the necessity for loans to again such offers; (2) the delicate geopolitical nature of constructing Pakistan’s offensive capabilities and the ramifications of U.S strain; (3) the pull of the a lot bigger Indian defence market; (4) the more and more opaque nature of Pakistan’s procurement processes; and (5) an institutional aversion to high-risk dealings with the West, particularly the U.S.