Moscow Seeks to Regain Initiative in the Game of Peace Talks – PRIO Blogs

Moscow sees its current diplomatic engagement with the USA as an indication of progress, with Russian President Vladimir Putin aiming to regain the initiative in peace talks.Russia is anticipating that final week’s Munich Safety Convention signifies attainable rifts in trans-Atlantic relations and the marginalization of Europe in shaping the post-war order.Putin’s technique could also be miscalculated, regardless of optimism in Moscow, as Russia’s financial weaknesses and battlefield successes might not translate into profitable negotiations.

Different Russian officers have echoed optimistic sentiments up to now few days. In a Russian media interview, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov mentioned, “This can be a highly effective sign that we’ll now attempt to remedy issues via dialogue … Now we’ll speak about peace, not struggle” (Telegram/@zarubinreporter, February 16). Based on a supply within the Russian overseas coverage institution, “It’s only the beginning of the negotiations, however Putin has received the primary spherical” (The Guardian, February 13). Preparations within the Kremlin for the much-anticipated assembly between the 2 leaders in Saudi Arabia have been difficult by the dearth of readability about what the peace plan for Ukraine designed in Washington D.C. actually comprises (Carnegie Politika; Kommersant, February 14). Solely Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been in a position to hold tempo with the velocity of developments by issuing a stream of concepts, starting from Ukraine’s want for nuclear weapons to the constructing of an all-European military, whereas the tone of Russian mainstream commentary has been uncharacteristically circumspect (Novaya gazeta Europe, February 14; Information.ru, February 15).

Private communication with the U.S. administration issues most for Putin on this quick circulation of developments (Carnegie Politika, February 13). The official abstract on the Kremlin web site of the cellphone name is somewhat quick and dry, however International Minister Sergei Lavrov discovered it opportune to emphasise the traditional tone of the dialog between “two well-mannered, well mannered folks” (Kremlin.ru, February 12; TASS, February 13). Mutual invites to go to respective capitals might by no means materialize, however the expression of respect from the chief, who’s reshaping the worldwide agenda, is perceived in Moscow as a significant accomplishment (Izvestiya, February 13). The Kremlin has instructed Russian media to emphasise Putin’s firmness and resolve and to “point out Trump much less usually” (Meduza, February 14).

The primary discussion board for debates on the prospects of peace in Ukraine was set final weekend on the Munich Safety Convention, which Russian pundits had been wanting to downgrade as a gathering of outdated opinions (RIAC, February 12). Russia was actually not invited to partake (Vedomosti, February 14). The discussions sought to solidify the frequent floor between the U.S. need to make sure a fast finish to hostilities, the European want for a steady safety association, and the Ukrainian aversion to rewarding Russia’s aggression (Izvestiya, February 15).

Two primary outcomes from the surge of U.S. diplomatic exercise are keenly anticipated in Moscow, together with a break up in trans-Atlantic relations and the marginalization of Europe in shaping the post-war order (Nezavisimaya gazeta, February 13). These anticipated futures are in logical contradiction. Europe, which has been investing extra in its personal safety, will essentially carry the primary duty for making certain the soundness of the negotiated peace association (Re: Russia, February 14). Putin can’t be bothered by such nuances and persists with the assertion that Europe would do the USA’ bidding obediently “wagging its tail” (RBC, February 10). Russian commentators have eagerly exaggerated shock in Europe to U.S. statements whereas indicators of a brand new resolve that the emergency summit in Paris may strengthen are ignored (Russia in International Affairs, January 22; Nezavisimaya gazeta, February 17).

Moscow seems to be at a loss in deciding how to answer the rhetoric coming from Beijing (Kommersant, February 16). The Individuals’s Republic of China’s (PRC) International Minister, Wang Yi, argued on the Munich Safety Convention {that a} peace settlement in Ukraine ought to contain all events (RIA Novosti, February 16). Yi held a gathering with Ukrainian International Minister Andrii Sybiha, which was solely briefly talked about in Russian media (Ibid). The PRC seems significantly within the U.S. conversations on entry to uncommon earth minerals in Ukraine, the worth of which, in Russian estimates, is downplayed (Forbes.ru, February 10).

Putin stays, however, fixated on partaking in bilateral bargaining with the USA. At a gathering in Saudi Arabia on February 18, Moscow’s group on the negotiating desk with the USA included Lavrov, long-term overseas coverage advisor Yuri Ushakov, and Russian Direct Funding Fund (RDIF) head Kirill Dmitriev (The Bell, February 14; RBC, February 15; TASS, February 17, 18). The delegation additionally included Vladimir Proskuryakov, a specialist on Arctic affairs and the Deputy Head of Mission on the Russian Embassy in Canada, and Dmitry Balakin, deputy director for European cooperation within the International Ministry (The Moscow Occasions, February 18; Embassy of the Russian Federation in Canada; Russian Worldwide Affairs Council, accessed February 18). In a press convention after the talks, Lavrov emphasised that it is very important make sure the “readiness of the nice powers in any scenario to take care of a traditional, skilled dialogue” and to study “classes” from what is going on (Fb/Russian International Ministry – МИД России, February 18). The Kremlin has taken word of the U.S. readiness to reckon with such realities on the bottom because the impossibility of return to Ukraine’s pre-war borders and the impracticality of Ukraine’s accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Group (NATO), nevertheless it stays reluctant to reciprocate these concessions by accepting a ceasefire (Svoboda.org, February 14).

For Putin, the struggle in Ukraine is an existential battle, during which Russia is on the way in which to victory. Which means the offensive operations in Donbas will proceed unabated, and North Korean troops are again within the trenches of the Kursk entrance (The Insider, February 15). Russian mainstream analysts keep on the message of irreducible confrontation with the so-called hostile West and re-energized United States, which seeks to revive its international dominance and diminish Russia’s affect on the worldwide area (Kommersant, February 14).

Other than marking the grim three-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Munich Safety Convention additionally remembered one yr for the reason that homicide of Alexei Navalny, famend chief of the Russian opposition, within the Arctic jail camp (Republic.ru, February 15; see EDM, February 18). Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, who addressed the convention final yr just a few hours after studying of her husband’s demise, spoke for a second time and warned that any take care of Putin can be hazardous and vulnerable to be damaged on his whim (Munich Safety Convention, February 16, 2024; Meduza, February 14).

Putin presumes that he can achieve a bonus within the fast-moving sport of peace talks, however his confidence within the energy of Russia’s negotiating place primarily based on the tactical successes on the battlefields might change into misplaced. The Kremlin seems to imagine that point is on Russia’s aspect. A possible failure to achieve an settlement on the assembly in Saudi Arabia will doubtless be perceived by Moscow as a possibility to realize extra concessions on the negotiating desk. As Dmitriev acknowledged after the talks, “It’s too early to speak about compromises. We are able to say that the edges began speaking with one another, began listening to one another, began the dialogue” (TASS, February 18).

Putin’s technique in Ukraine has been a sequence of miscalculations and setbacks. Faking readiness to achieve a peace deal whereas persisting with strain for victory may very well be one more blunder.