On fifteenth March 2026, Kazakhstan will maintain a nationwide referendum by which voters will resolve whether or not to undertake a brand new Structure proposed by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The proposed Structure marks a major departure from the present 1995 one: amendments have an effect on 77 articles, or over 80% of the present Structure. The official motive for the amendments is to maneuver away from consolidated presidential governance; nevertheless, the proposed Structure may need the alternative impact.
Kazakhstan’s democratic rise…
Kazakhstan is the ninth-largest nation on the earth by space and is located in Central Asia. It gained independence from the USSR on 16 December 1991. In response to information from the Worldwide Financial Fund,Kazakhstan surpassed China in 2025 in GDP per capita development, establishing itself not solely as probably the most economically affluent nation in Central Asia but additionally as a steadily rising economic system globally. Kazakhstan additionally confirmed constant development within the Human Growth Index (HDI), as evaluated by the United Nations Growth Programme (UNDP), with a rise of 21.5 per cent (from 0.689 to 0.837) between 1990 and 2023, and has been recognised for its forward-looking stance in schooling, the economic system, know-how, and finance.
Tokayev’s accession to the presidency in 2019 adopted almost three a long time of rule by Nursultan Nazarbayev, throughout which the 1993 Structure was amended in 1995 to entrench an ultra-presidential republic. Tokayev’s presidency was seen as a departure from old-elite politics and supplied a democratic promise, not solely as a result of he positioned himself as a frontrunner of a “new” and “simply” Kazakhstan, but additionally due to his substantial expertise in workplace. Along with his diplomatic and political background – together with two phrases as overseas minister (1994-1999; 2002-2007) – Tokayev promoted Kazakhstan’s multi-vector overseas coverage and pursued nuclear disarmament. He held high-level positions and led efforts to safe Kazakhstan’s chairmanship of assorted regional and intergovernmental organisations, managing advanced relationships amongst competing pursuits inside and outdoors the area. Tokayev’s rise appeared to sign a break from the custom of non-democratic management, however that promise was short-lived.
… and fall
The bloody January occasions of 2022 discredited the parable of recent democratic governance when police fired on unarmed protesters, killing over 200 folks. Not solely have been the protests violently suppressed, however investigations into the deaths and abuse of energy have been inadequately carried out; victims proceed to hunt justice to today. The promise of “Zhana” (“new” – open and democratic) Kazakhstan below Tokayev’s management was additionally halted by the continued suppression of ladies’s and LGBTQ+ rights, in addition to freedom of expression and meeting, regardless of efforts by civil society and mass mobilisation from the bottom. The disconnect between the folks’s wants and the management persists, as the brand new amendments to the Structure spotlight.
Outdoors of home politics, Kazakhstan follows regional authorized developments. Kyrgyzstan, for instance, adopted a unicameral parliament – referred to as Kurultai – in a 2003 referendum. In 2023, Turkmenistan additionally transitioned from a bicameral to a unicameral mannequin. In Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, parliaments stay bicameral, however the ongoing experiments between unicameral and bicameral techniques have been outstanding throughout the area since independence.
The amendments
In response to the federal government’s official press launch, the draft was compiled by the Constitutional Fee appointed by presidential decree. The Fee consists of 130 members and consists of representatives of Parliament, outstanding human rights officers, state companies, the media, regional our bodies, and teachers and consultants. This composition is overambitiously claimed to incorporate “completely all social teams and areas of Kazakhstan.” It’s acknowledged that the draft Structure acquired over 10,000 responses from the general public by way of the state’s on-line portal; nevertheless, these weren’t printed overtly, with no rationalization of how they have been included, if in any respect.
In response to President Tokayev, the political system wants modernisation to mirror latest political and socio-economic realities, which differ from people who existed when the present Structure was adopted, when the nation was recovering after independence. The amendments have been launched by presidential decree, with the nationwide referendum posing the next query: “Do you settle for the brand new Structure of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the draft of which was printed within the media on 12 February 2026?” Regardless of the claims to look ahead, the amendments themselves seem like a step again from what was achieved.
From bicameral to unicameral parliament
One of many essential proposed adjustments is to rework the Parliament from bicameral to unicameral, renaming it the Kurultai (see Part IV of the proposed Structure). It will encompass 145 members, serving five-year phrases, elected based mostly on proportional illustration. The Kurultai would maintain legislative powers, whereas, alarmingly, the President’s payments would have precedence for studying and adoption on the Kurultai and would must be handed inside two months. Moreover, the draft doesn’t specify whether or not Parliament is answerable for adopting and amending the state funds.
The transition from a bicameral to a unicameral parliament is claimed to enhance illustration and the {qualifications} of members, and to allow higher accountability to the general public. But the draft doesn’t specify how this is able to be completed. Usually, the Second Chamber of Parliament affords checks on the opposite chamber by scrutinising and difficult its proposals and offering legislative overview and oversight. Whereas it’s finally as much as the states to find out probably the most appropriate type of governance, the oversight capabilities of bicameral parliaments are significantly useful in states the place one social gathering tends to dominate (as was traditionally the case in Kazakhstan with Amanat social gathering, beforehand Nur Otan), the place the presidential authority is already sturdy, or when it’s obligatory to guard minority rights and forestall hasty decision-making.
Consolidation of presidential powers
Among the proposed amendments now specify that the President might dismiss the Prosecutor Normal, the Chairperson of the Supreme Courtroom, and the Human Rights Ombudsman (Article 46(5)). By their very nature, these roles usually contain scrutinising and criticising state establishments, which may very well be problematic since appointments are made by the President somewhat than the elected parliament. It additionally proposes a wider vary of grounds for the President to dissolve Parliament (Article 46). The transfer to consolidate energy within the new Structure codifies the President’s entrenched powers, making reform and accountability more and more troublesome.
The standing of worldwide regulation
Below the present Structure, worldwide treaties ratified by authorised representatives take priority over different legal guidelines (Article 4(3)). The proposed draft states that different normative acts decide the standing of worldwide regulation (Article 5), introducing a major change that places worldwide regulation in a state of limbo concerning its hierarchy. It factors to the uncertainty surrounding the enforcement of worldwide obligations and to a altering perspective in the direction of the worldwide authorized order, by which Kazakhstan actively participated.
Human rights
The brand new Structure would additionally amend particular person and collective rights. For instance, the proposed draft now features a definition of marriage: “a voluntary and equal union between women and men, registered by the state.” The specification of “women and men” displays restrictions on LGBTQ+ rights, additionally in a just lately launched laws prohibiting LGBTQ+ “propaganda.”
The wording concerning the suitable to free schooling and medical care has shifted from “free” to “they don’t must pay for it themselves” (Articles 33 and 32). The proper to freedom of meeting now applies solely to peaceable gatherings and is topic to broader restrictions, corresponding to people who safeguard public morals (Article 34). The article on freedom of speech and expression additionally consists of an expanded listing of limitations, corresponding to harming the fame and honour of others and public morals (Article 23). The safety of private information and personal life is explicitly prolonged to the digital realm (Article 21). Whereas limitations are widespread for rights that aren’t absolute by nature, the wording surrounding them and the perceived ambiguity may unfairly favour state our bodies over people and teams.
Financial dimensions
The financing of political events by overseas residents is already banned; within the new draft, this ban is strengthened by requiring non-governmental and non-commercial organisations to overtly disclose their funding sources, together with overseas donors (Article 6(5)). Current authorized provisions mandate that non-commercial organisations report overseas revenue. This step marks a transfer, now on the constitutional degree, in the direction of higher state management over non-governmental organisations, which may adversely have an effect on their operations and independence, significantly for human rights and rule-of-law organisations that act as neutral watchdogs over state establishments.
Consolidation of sovereignty and new roles and our bodies
The brand new draft emphasises territorial integrity and sovereignty, highlighting that the inhabitants is the only real bearer of each state energy and sovereignty. The provisions on “Simply Kazakhstan” and the primacy of “the Rule of Regulation” are actually included within the preamble, which additionally references look after nature and the surroundings. A newly proposed governing physique within the draft, the Folks’s Council of Kazakhstan (Kazakhstan Halyk Kenesi), would symbolize the pursuits of the folks. The Folks’s Council is a “consultative” physique comprising Kazakh residents that gives strategies and suggestions on home coverage by submitting payments to the Kurultai and calling for nationwide referendums (Part VI). The proposed Structure states that it serves as a platform for dialogue amongst residents, chosen by a separate “constitutional regulation,” although it doesn’t specify how members and the Chairperson are chosen. One other new function, not in place since 1996, is the Vice-President, who could be appointed by the President with the Kurultai’s approval and act as a liaison between the President, parliament, and authorities.
Procedural points
For the brand new Structure to be adopted, greater than half of the eligible voting inhabitants of over 12 million should vote in favour. In response to the newest ballot by Kazakhstan’s Institute of Public Growth, by which 1,200 randomly chosen residents throughout areas participated, 89.2% assist the proposed Structure (with 52.8% supporting it fully, 36.4% supporting it principally, and 10.8% undecided). The survey additionally indicated a comparatively excessive degree of consciousness concerning the referendum – 81.8% comprehend it, and 72.8% plan to participate.
The referendum doesn’t allow voting on particular person sections of the amendments; it solely permits for acceptance or rejection of your entire package deal. The scope of the proposed amendments and the extent of the adjustments concerned would require an extended timeframe than the 4 weeks supplied, extra thorough scrutiny and public debate, and a extra nuanced method than a easy “sure” or “no” query.
Outlook
If the brand new structure is adopted, it might enter into drive on 1 July 2026, ending the present parliament. Elections for the brand new unicameral parliament, the Kurultai, would must be held rapidly inside two months. After its first session, the President would appoint key roles, together with the Vice-President, the Chairperson, and judges of the Constitutional Courtroom, members of the Central Electoral Committee, and members of the Higher Auditory Chamber, all inside two months.
The brand new Structure marks a key step in reshaping Kazakhstan’s political system and its regional and worldwide standing. With few constitutional constraints, Kazakhstan strikes in the direction of a proper hybrid governance mannequin, aligning with a broader regional development of institutional experiments that stabilise political management somewhat than switch and redistribute energy. What’s at stake is just not solely an institutional change but additionally a brand new political course, with the presidential authority taking part in a coordinating function whereas weakening the legislative physique and the scrutiny it supplies. It additionally alerts a shift in method to regional and worldwide relations in each financial and human rights issues. The amendments – each in substance and in how they have been proposed and voted on – supply little hope for simply and democratic governance.
