Forcing Zelensky to hand Putin Ukraine’s ‘fortress belt’ in Donetsk will lose it the war

Within the latest summit talks in Alaska designed to halt the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Vladimir Putin demanded that Kyiv cede management of the whole thing of its Donetsk oblast (area) to Russia. However this might successfully be tantamount to an acceptance of total defeat for Ukraine.

In giving up this area, Kyiv would even be giving up its principal defensive barrier in opposition to additional Russian encroachment into the entire of Ukraine – that’s, it is going to lose its “fortress belt”. That is the title given (by the Russians themselves) to a collection of fortified Ukrainian-held cities, cities and settlements within the west of the Donetsk area. This belt roughly hyperlinks the town of Slovyansk within the north to Kostyantynivka, some 50 km to the south.

The present state of affairs on the battlefield must be seen with a sure context in thoughts – that of geography. The state that we now name Russia (which has included Ukraine for a lot of its existence) has been topic to many invasions all through its lengthy historical past. Overseas invaders – whether or not coming from the east, south or west – had been usually capable of make speedy preliminary progress of their invasions, not least as a result of Russia had few pure obstacles that would act as defensive traces.

Specifically, the open steppe lands, missing hilly or mountainous terrain, have represented an open invitation to invaders. This concern nonetheless pertains. However right this moment, paradoxically, these largely indefensible steppe lands are Ukrainian territory that’s underneath risk from Russian forces.

In mild of this, Kyiv can’t depend on terrain to type defensive traces. It has to depend on creating city obstacles. Cities and cities are notoriously troublesome to seize or to struggle by way of. Buildings, particularly massive ones, present perfect cowl and fireplace factors for defenders. Entering into city areas is troublesome due to the channelling impact of the street programs. Apparent routes could be properly defended with mines, obstacles and overlaying fireplace. Rubble additionally makes motion troublesome. City eventualities very a lot favour the defender.

The conventional tactic for an assaulting drive could be to try to outflank and encompass such city areas and to then to primarily lay siege to them to forestall their resupply and thus drive their give up. That is what occurred, however on a smaller scale, with the seize of Mariupol by Russian forces early within the conflict.

The opposite various has been to “squeeze out” Ukrainian forces from any city they’re holding. In such eventualities, cities have been enveloped on three sides by Russian troops. This has then pressured the under-pressure Ukrainians to withdraw although the one remaining egress routes. Russian forces then occupy the deserted city.

That is what occurred at cities that Ukrainian forces misplaced earlier within the Donbas area: Avdiivka, Bakhmut and Soledar.

However each of those types of assault on city areas are at the moment being denied to Russian forces. That is due to the complicated collection of Ukrainian defensive traces which were established now between the collection of cities and cities within the Donetsk fortress belt. These make use of minefields, anti-tank obstacles, enfilading fireplace (firing alongside the enemy line to inflict most casualties) supplied by tube artillery and copious drone use.

As a result of the Russians have largely been unable to interrupt by way of these traces they’ve been prevented from surrounding or enveloping any of the main city areas inside the fortress belt.

Final line of defence

It’s strategically very important for the Ukrainians that this belt continues to carry again the Russians. It seems that one of many foremost goals of the 2025 summer season offensive by Moscow (in line with Russian officers captured by the Ukrainians) has been to interrupt by way of this belt. It was mentioned to signify the “poslednii ryvok” (the “remaining push”) that might settle the conflict’s end result in Russia’s favour.

However this has not occurred and appears unlikely to occur anytime quickly. Certainly, because the Institute for the Examine of Conflict put it lately, Russian forces “are engaged in an effort … to grab [the ‘fortress belt’] that might possible take a number of years to finish”.

Therefore, it turns into simpler to grasp why Putin wanted to make the demand that he did at Anchorage. What can’t be achieved on the bottom when it comes to breaking by way of the fortress belt he’s attempting to attain by way of a peace deal brokered with US help.

Gaining management of the west of the Donetsk area is the important thing to successful the conflict. Putin is aware of this. If Donetsk and its fortress belt are given up, then the open steppe land to the west could be uncovered to Russian advances. Nice swaths of Ukrainian territory would quickly fall.

As one Russian supply put it this week, the fortress belt “is the final severe line of defence for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Past it, Kyiv has no different ready traces of defence to Zaporizhzhia and the Dnipropetrovsk area … [and] … the Russian military can … advance to the Dnieper River”.

If Russian forces got here to be camped on this a part of the Dnieper, then it’s arduous to think about that Ukraine wouldn’t then must accede to but additional, strategically damaging, territorial calls for from Moscow. With such a situation in thoughts, the long run course of the entire conflict hinges on Ukraine not giving up its fortress belt in western Donetsk.

Maybe an irony in Putin’s demand that the entire of the Donetsk area be handed over is that it may very well be seen as coming from a place of what seems to be weak point and never energy. He can’t wait the years it might take to grab the cities and cities that type the fortress belt. Russia can’t stay on a conflict footing for an excessive amount of longer, in line with dependable studies on the state of its economic system.

Besides, Kyiv might must accede to Putin’s calls for as a result of it is going to doubtlessly come underneath stress from the Trump administration, which itself doesn’t wish to wait years to see a decision to this battle. If Kyiv does accede, although, then this will quantity to Ukraine accepting its total defeat. It could, certainly, lose the conflict.