Election 2024 analysis: The UK Union may appear restrengthened — but is it really?

by Jack Liddall, PhD Candidate, Division of Politics and Worldwide Research, College of Cambridge.

The headline of a Labour landslide majority—not simply within the UK as a complete, however in Scotland, Wales and England individually—might recommend that the UK Union is unified as soon as once more. The story of election evening was one in every of main Tory losses, quite than gorgeous Labour victories. Low voter turnout, the splitting of votes between the Tories and Reform UK and tactical voting assisted in a Labour success. Nonetheless, united of their need to take away Tories from workplace (apparently utilizing whichever political automobile essential), are the folks of the UK singing from the identical hymn sheet as soon as once more?

With the SNP collapse in Scotland, the Labour triumph in Wales (with no Tories returned there) and the ocean of purple seats throughout England, it could seem that an more and more strained Union may expertise some respite. The three nations have typically voted otherwise for the previous 15 years or so, backing competing visions for his or her nations and the UK extra extensively. In the 2019 election, the Conservatives secured a decisive majority of English seats, while the SNP retained its predominance in Scotland and Labour prevailed in Wales. Since 2010 till now, these three events have fashioned the UK, Scottish and Welsh governments, with relations between them typically disputatious. 

Given the outcome we now have seen up to now few days, maybe all that is altering. Nevertheless, there are quite a lot of causes for doubt. For individuals who could also be dedicated to the UK Union—not least these in Starmer’s new administration—this can be a vital second. The election outcomes nonetheless but present ample purpose to not take fashionable religion within the UK Union without any consideration. 

In Scotland, the primary information story has been the SNP’s lack of 39 seats (dropping from 48 to only 9) and Labour’s sweeping success by means of the Central Belt. Some commentators have even taken to totting up the vote shares for pro-UK and pro-independence events, pointing to Sturgeon’s ditched technique to make this election a ‘de facto referendum’. Nevertheless, the SNP’s electoral misfortune this time spherical shouldn’t be interpreted as some astounding shift in opinion about Scottish independence. Polling continues to indicate that round half of Scots nonetheless again leaving the UK. As an alternative, it has been extensively famous that the query of Scotland’s constitutional future merely didn’t characteristic as a lot on this election, in comparison with the cost-of-living disaster and the NHS, in addition to the SNP’s home file in authorities. It may possible be {that a} vital variety of SNP voters have, for now, lent their vote to Labour. That mentioned, by way of vote share, Labour (36%) and the SNP (30%) are far more evenly matched. 

What’s extra, nationalist events in Northern Eire and Wales have heralded key successes, with Sinn Fein profitable a majority of Northern Irish seats (though the Unionist vote was extra complicated on this election following the DUP’s inner turmoil). Plaid Cymru additionally doubled their variety of MPs in Wales (though this may very well be extra of a response in opposition to Labour’s troubles in authorities there, quite than indicative of independence assist). Altogether although, the UK-wide election outcomes shouldn’t blind anybody—not least these in Starmer’s days-old authorities—to the nonetheless vital variety of residents who really feel they aren’t greatest represented and served as a part of a United Kingdom. 

One other main information story has been the very low vote share Labour achieved throughout the UK (34%) in comparison with the variety of seats they garnered (64%). That is with out even mentioning the record-low turnout, particularly in lots of English constituencies. To what extent the brand new Labour authorities can say it has a UK-wide mandate (on its constitutional insurance policies as a lot as anything), has change into a key query. 

What can be revealing by way of assessing the energy of the UK Union is the vote share in Scotland, Wales and England individually. In England, Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens (all seen to be extra left of centre on this election), received round 54% of the vote share. The Conservatives and Reform UK received round 41%. In contrast, in Scotland, Labour, the SNP, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, represented round 79% of voters, while the Conservatives and Reform UK garnered 20% of the vote. Actually, the Tory vote fell under 5% in the entire Glasgow constituencies. In Wales, the Conservatives and Reform UK received round 35% of the vote share, while Labour, Plaid Cymru, the Lib Dems and the Greens received round 64% of the vote. Moreover, by way of the change in vote share, Scotland is the one a part of Nice Britain the place the Labour share of the vote elevated by double figures. It elevated by simply three % in Southeast England and decreased in London, Wales and Northwest England. 

Grouping totally different celebration voters collectively has its personal well-versed problems. Political scientists have additionally recurrently warned in opposition to unnuanced claims that English voters are typically ideologically extra right-wing than voters in the remainder of Nice Britain, typically pointing to the socio-political values of voters within the north of England. Nevertheless, these invested in a unified UK ought to stay cognisant of this nation-by-nation breakdown of the vote share which demonstrates an everlasting variety of socio-political views throughout the UK, which is so typically tied to position. Such variations, significantly when connected to regional or nationwide identification, have additionally typically fashioned main arguments for nationalist actions throughout the UK and will but pose challenges to the incoming Labour authorities. Will probably be as much as the brand new administration to determine and work on insurance policies which have frequent attraction to voters in Southeast England in addition to in Scotland, Wales and the remainder of the UK. 

In fact, there are those that would possibly say that variations in political preferences throughout the nations and areas (whether or not precise or perceived) aren’t what makes the UK Union robust or not. Actually, it isn’t the one measure of energy. But, it’s value taking into consideration that maybe the driving argument behind devolution in 1999 below the final UK Labour authorities was that earlier UK governments had not been voted for by folks in Scotland and Wales. The (re)convening of parliaments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Eire by fashionable referendums was part of filling the democratic hole which residents felt had existed. Does this election outcome proceed for example (or can it’s seen for example) some extra underlying socio-political variations throughout UK nations and areas which have, up to now, manifested in governments not of Wales’ or Scotland’s selecting? While this level can maybe be overstated, what is evident is that the folks of the UK (while arguably unified of their opposition of the Tories) haven’t come collectively in any decisive method to decide on a standard imaginative and prescient for the longer term. The map of Nice Britain, glowing purple with Labour seats, shouldn’t disguise the size of the problem in setting out a constitutional plan for the UK which is agreeable to (and even evokes) folks in Scotland and Wales in addition to England. 

However with problem comes alternative. This may very well be a second for a brand new administration—with seat majorities throughout the UK—to show that it might probably work for all elements of the UK. There are additionally causes to imagine that Sir Keir and his new authorities are greater than awake to the above challenges. From the waving of the saltire and the purple dragon behind Starmer throughout his victory speech to the brand new Prime Minister’s tour of the UK to fulfill First Ministers, strengthening the Union appears to be a precedence. Starmer has launched into a rhetoric of ‘resetting’ the relations between the governments of the UK. Given the underlying patterns beneath the headline election outcome which sign continued pressure on the Union, these first strikes will should be adopted by intensified, significant cooperation throughout the UK if the Prime Minister needs to show that he governs for all. Greater than this, maybe these enduring challenges for the Union additionally require a extra long-term, reformist strategy which reconsiders the very structure of the UK. All in all, the UK Union is way from settled.