Election 2024 analysis: The future for Labour in Wales

by Nye Davies, Lecturer in Politics at Cardiff College

After successful an historic landslide on the normal election and ending fourteen years of Conservative rule, the Labour Celebration is in a buoyant temper. In Wales, the electoral map nearly mirrors the pink, yellow and inexperienced of a Welsh soccer bucket hat, with the blue being eradicated and Wales changing into a Tory-free zone. Labour elevated its variety of seats by six to complete with a complete of twenty-seven, whereas Plaid Cymru achieved considered one of its greatest outcomes, successful 4 seats. After a wipeout in 2017, the Liberal Democrats regained a foothold in Wales as soon as extra by successful the brand new constituency of Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. Though the celebration didn’t win any seats, it was additionally a very good evening for Reform who got here second in a number of constituencies and completed third total by way of vote share.

Welsh Labour chief Vaughan Gething was doubtless feeling a way of reduction after a tough few months that has seen him face mounting criticism for a collection of controversies. Nevertheless, whereas Labour was profitable by way of the variety of seats received in Wales, digging deeper into the outcomes means that the story may not be as rosy for the celebration. Whereas Labour’s vote share elevated by 1.6% throughout the UK, in Wales it truly fell by 3.9%. In a few of its strongholds, the celebration noticed substantial decreases in vote share, with Plaid Cymru and the Greens consuming into the left-wing vote and rising their shares by 4.9% and three.7% respectively.

Nonetheless, newly-appointed Secretary of State for Wales Jo Stevens hailed the end result as a possibility to have “two Labour governments, one at every finish of the M4, working in an environment of belief and respect and collaboration fairly than fixed frictions”. The end result, she argued, would “ship higher outcomes for Wales”. 

Whereas there are lots of threads to unravel from the outcomes, it’s price specializing in this facet of Labour’s victory. As we transfer right into a interval of Labour governments in each Cardiff and London for the primary time since 2010, what’s going to the connection between the 2 administrations seem like? Will we see a brand new interval of cooperation that may result in enhancements in Wales’ struggling public providers, or are we prone to see rising tensions?

The tip of clear pink water?

Within the early years of devolution, First Minister Rhodri Morgan tried to place ‘clear pink water’ between Labour in Wales and Labour at Westminster. He argued that coverage choices in Wales wanted to be geared in direction of the nation’s distinct socio-economic circumstances. Moreover, Welsh Labour, he insisted, was instilled with values that have been uniquely Welsh, differing from the market-centred strategy to public providers being taken by New Labour in London, and as an alternative reflecting ‘traditional Labour’ values.

Relatively than placing clear pink water between Welsh and UK Labour, a definite message was articulated by Welsh Labour politicians all through the marketing campaign with nice self-discipline and consistency: “Two Labour governments; working collectively for Wales’ and Britain’s Future”. Relatively than placing ideological distance between the 2 branches of the celebration, Welsh Labour has centered on unity and cooperation.

Regardless of these hopes, tensions stay. As I’ve written elsewhere, Starmer has insisted that the spending faucets is not going to be turned on, which can restrict the quantity of additional funding that Wales will obtain. If that is so, the query arises as to how having a Labour authorities in Westminster will help the Welsh Authorities, notably in the case of public providers. The Welsh Well being Secretary Eluned Morgan drew criticism for campaigning with a ‘modernise our NHS’ signal, regardless of well being being devolved to Wales. With little new cash prone to be freed up by a UK authorities, Welsh Labour must look to itself to search out methods to modernise the NHS, fairly than counting on Labour being in energy at Westminster. After emphasising the advantages of getting two Labour governments, the celebration will face larger scrutiny to ship on its guarantees.

Devolution divides

Each political celebration incorporates inside it competing ideological tendencies. Labour isn’t any completely different. Nevertheless, ideological disputes tackle completely different dimensions in a multi-level celebration. As David Moon has demonstrated, two distinct ideological tendencies have emerged inside Welsh Labour: the pro-devolution tendency, which argues for larger devolution and recognition of Welsh distinction, and the unionist tendency, which is predominantly made up of Welsh MPs and has tended to be extra sceptical in direction of these calls for. Regardless of Labour figures pointing to the need and alternative of collaboration, there are indicators that the antagonisms current inside the multi-level celebration might emerge within the close to future. Whereas the Welsh First Minister has been essentially the most highly effective Labour politician within the UK, now, with Labour being in energy in Westminster, the unionist wing of the celebration will doubtless really feel emboldened.

One space the place this may reveal itself is the way forward for the UK structure. Even earlier than the election marketing campaign started, variations of opinion on this problem emerged between competing tendencies inside Welsh Labour. The best sticking level seems to be the devolution of justice, the coverage of Welsh Labour, a private ambition of Mark Drakeford, and supported by Vaughan Gething in his management manifesto.[1] Nevertheless, Gordon Brown’s report on the structure, commissioned by the UK Labour Celebration, fell wanting promising these powers, whereas earlier this 12 months, Jo Stevens rejected requires the devolution of justice. In his first few days in workplace, Keir Starmer has been vocal in his assist for devolving important powers to the areas of England, however the variance in what Welsh and UK Labour are providing by way of Welsh devolution has the potential to incite future clashes. Moreover, whereas the Welsh Authorities has known as for Wales to be given a justifiable share of funding for HS2, Jo Stevens has dominated out the prospect of Wales receiving this cash.

Two Labour governments, shared issues

Earlier than these tensions unravel, the query of Vaughan Gething’s future as First Minister nonetheless hangs within the air. Regardless of assurances from Starmer and Stevens that Gething has their full assist, Labour needs to be involved about how latest controversies are influencing voters’ perceptions of the celebration in Wales. Confidence in Gething amongst the general public has plummeted, whereas the First Minister has already misplaced a vote of confidence within the Senedd. Moreover, after Plaid Cymru pulled out of the cooperation settlement, it’s tough to see how the Welsh Authorities can obtain its legislative programme over the subsequent couple of years. Opposition events comparable to Plaid Cymru shall be hopeful of future positive aspects within the 2026 Senedd election.

Trying forward, Labour’s election success conceals one thing deeper happening beneath the floor. Whereas two governments working collectively can show fruitful, future antagonisms should not simply averted. 

[1] Now deleted from his marketing campaign web site