Our analysis at Actual Clear Investigations on the “Stealth Edit: FBI Quietly Revises Violent Crime Stats” continues to get lots of media consideration.
A Crime Spike Revealed
John Lott writes for RealClearInvestigations:
When the FBI initially launched the “remaining” crime knowledge for 2022 in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime fee fell by 2.1%. This shortly turned, and stays, a Democratic Celebration speaking level to counter Donald Trump’s claims of hovering crime.
However the FBI has quietly revised these numbers, releasing new knowledge that exhibits violent crime elevated in 2022 by 4.5%. The brand new knowledge contains hundreds extra murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults… It’s been over three weeks because the FBI launched the revised knowledge. The Bureau’s lack of acknowledgment or rationalization concerning the important change considerations researchers.
“I’ve checked the information on complete violent crime from 2004 to 2022,” Carl Moody, a professor on the School of William & Mary who makes a speciality of learning crime, informed RealClearInvestigations. “There have been no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, there have been small adjustments of lower than one proportion level. The massive adjustments in 2021 and 2022, particularly with out a proof, make it tough to belief the FBI knowledge.”
… The FBI didn’t reply to RCI’s repeated requests for remark.
James Freeman, “Let Bibi be Bibi,” Wall Avenue Journal, October 18, 2024.
The FBI quietly revised the U.S. crime statistics to indicate a rise in violent crime.
An investigation by RealClearInvestigations discovered that the FBI up to date its 2022 crime statistics in September, displaying that slightly than a 2.1% drop in violent crime as initially reported, the USA really skilled a 4.5% rise in violent crime. The brand new dataset confirmed hundreds extra murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.
The greater than 6 proportion level change is unprecedented in current FBI statistic reporting, William & Mary professor Carl Moody informed the outlet.
“I’ve checked the information on complete violent crime from 2004 to 2022,” he stated. “There have been no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, there have been small adjustments of lower than one proportion level. The massive adjustments in 2021 and 2022, particularly with out a proof, make it tough to belief the FBI knowledge.”
The one announcement of the change was a single footnote within the 2023 crime statistic report, the place the company acknowledged, “The 2022 violent crime fee has been up to date for inclusion in CIUS, 2023.”
“It’s as much as the FBI to elucidate what they’ve completed, they usually haven’t defined these massive adjustments,” Justec Analysis President Thomas Marvell added.
The FBI’s September press launch doesn’t word the change in crime statistics.
In line with crimeresearch.org, the revised FBI statistics present a internet improve of 1,699 extra murders, 7,780 extra rapes, 33,459 extra robberies, and 37,091 extra aggravated assaults from 2021 to 2022. Some figures from 2021 had been decreased.
The rise was recorded even if knowledge nonetheless weren’t collected from a number of the most violent precincts. . . .
Brady Knox, “FBI quietly revises crime statistics and divulges rise in violent crime,” Washington Examiner, October 16, 2024.
President Trump has often lashed out towards the rise in violent crime in the USA all through probably the most of his third marketing campaign for workplace, linking high-profile murders to the tens of millions of recent immigrants who’ve entered the nation within the final two years. Each Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have responded by disputing his description of crime, helped alongside by mainstream media that has, far too often, refuted Trump’s claims that violent crime is declining yr. In line with the FBI, that proved to be unfaithful.
RealClearPolitics initially reported on a “stealth edit” carried out by Bureau officers of their 2022–September 2023 crime figures, which initially indicated a 2.1% lower in violent crime throughout that point. In line with an FBI knowledge launched on Wednesday, violent crime elevated by 4.5% throughout that interval, supporting President Trump and the households of homicide victims who imagine a secure southern border may have prevented their family members from dying. The dramatic adjustment was not talked about by the FBI public relations workers in a press assertion final month.
The brand new numerals don’t stand out instantly, even when one knew the place to look. In line with reporter John R. Lott Jr., he was initially drawn to the mysterious assertion, “The 2022 violent crime fee has been up to date for inclusion in CIUS, 2023,” in an FBI on-line replace. He wrote that downloading the latest knowledge and evaluating it to the beforehand supplied knowledge—which has since been deleted—was the one technique to see the distinction. . . .
Alisha Rodriguez, “TRUMP VINDICATED! Bombshell Report Proves He Was Proper!,” The Republic Transient, October 17, 2024.
Dr. John Lott Revealed Revised FBI Numbers Displaying Rising Crime Charges
“Principally what occurred was that earlier than they (the FBI) had claimed that violent crime had fallen in 2022 by about 2.1 %, however once you regarded on the new knowledge that that they had it had gone up by 4.5 %, and that’s a reasonably important change,” started Dr. Lott.
Dr. Lott supplied extra up to date nationwide crime numbers.
“Right here we’re speaking about,” he stated. “A internet change of over 80,000 violent crimes. We’re speaking a couple of change of 1,699 murders in a single yr. We’re speaking about over 7,000 rapes, over 33,000 robberies, over 37,000 aggravated assaults, and 198,000 property crimes, together with 54,000 motorcar thefts.”
Peter Christian, “Missoula Researcher Makes Nationwide Headlines Over FBI Crime Information,” KGVO, October 18, 2024.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation has up to date its current crime knowledge experiences that originally confirmed that violent crime charges within the U.S. had dropped after it was revealed that hundreds of violent crimes had not been added to the overall.
In line with Actual Clear Investigations, the FBI initially launched the “remaining” crime knowledge for 2022 in September 2023, which confirmed that violent crime within the U.S. fell by 2.1%. This knowledge has been utilized by political candidates reminiscent of Vice President Harris in September to reveal to voters that she and President Biden’s administration have been robust on crime over the past 4 years. Nevertheless, the bureau’s announcement on Wednesday added beforehand missed crimes to the report; violent crime elevated in 2022 by 4.5%, as the newest numbers for 2022 present that there have been 80,029 extra violent crimes than in 2021. There have been additionally 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 violent assaults added.
“In the present day’s new knowledge submitted to the FBI confirms that our devoted efforts and collaborative partnerships with regulation enforcement are working; People are safer now than after we took workplace. Final yr, we noticed the most important ever one-year lower within the murder fee, which now stands 16 % beneath its 2020 stage. Violent crime is at a close to 50-year low. Our progress is constant this yr and builds on substantial decreases throughout the earlier years of our administration,” the White Home claimed in a press release in September.
RCI spoke to William & Mary crime professor Carl Moody concerning the up to date report, who stated, “I’ve checked the information on complete violent crime from 2004 to 2022. There have been no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020 there have been small adjustments of lower than one proportion level. The massive adjustments in 2021 and 2022, particularly with out a proof, make it tough to belief the FBI knowledge.” . . .
Thomas Schumacher, “FBI Proclaims Revisions To Current Crime Information That Claimed Violent Crime In U.S. Fell; Admits Violent Crime Rose By 4.5%,” WSAU (Wisconsin), October 16, 2024.
On October 16, 2024, Actual Clear Investigations famous:
When the FBI initially launched the “remaining” crime knowledge for 2022 in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime fee fell by 2.1%. This shortly turned, and stays, a Democratic Celebration speaking level to counter Donald Trump’s claims of hovering crime.
However the FBI has quietly revised these numbers, releasing new knowledge that exhibits violent crime elevated in 2022 by 4.5%. The brand new knowledge contains hundreds extra murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.
The up to date FBI knowledge for 2022 exhibits there have been 1,699 extra murders than initially reported, 7,780 extra rapes, over 33,000 extra robberies, and over 37,000 extra aggravated assaults.
Professor Carl Moody, crime researcher on the School of William & Mary, noticed the FBI has not needed to right crime experiences to this diploma at some other time throughout the twenty first century. . . .
AWR Hawkins, “FBI Revised Figures: Violent Crime up 4.5% Beneath Biden/Harris in 2022,” Breitbart, October 16, 2024.
Actual Clear Investigations experiences the FBI not too long ago up to date its crime database and, like within the state of Connecticut, there was extra violent crime than was initially reported.
The FBI claimed crime had decreased year-over-year when it first launched the finished crime knowledge for the yr 2022. Now, the FBI is reporting that general violent crime elevated by 4%. . . .
Alex Appel, “Violent crime in Connecticut increased than initially reported in 2022,” Inside Investigator, October 17, 2024.
Now we study that the FBI is lastly catching up with its backlogged knowledge, and new metrics are being reported. At Actual Clear Investigations they famous a really quietly entered notation within the 2023 report saying merely the stats from the earlier yr had been up to date. That turns into a heavy euphemism once you see the brand new numbers.
The place the preliminary report had the violent crime fee within the U.S. dipping by -2.1%, the up to date numbers present a stark change – violent crime is now proven to have elevated by 4.5%. This represents a stark change, and but the FBI has made no different public announcement about this revision, and the press is content material to proceed to push its most popular narrative, seemingly resting on the older experiences from The Bureau. . . .
Brad Slager, “We Are Confirmed Appropriate,” Townhall, October 18, 2024.
David Mastio of the Kansas Metropolis Starreached out to the FBI’s press workplace, asking about RealClearInvestigations‘ scoop that the bureau quietly revised the 2022 crime statistics, “releasing new knowledge that exhibits violent crime elevated in 2022 by 4.5 %. The brand new knowledge contains hundreds extra murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.” As Mastio notes, in late September, USA In the present day reported that “violent crime in the USA declined for the third straight yr in 2023,” citing those self same FBI statistics.
RealClearInvestigations stated the FBI didn’t reply to RCI’s repeated requests for remark . . . which is unhealthy. When somebody notices a discrepancy within the launched statistics, the bureau can’t simply ignore inquiries it finds inconvenient. . . .
Jim Geraghty, “New Motive to Doubt That Current FBI Crime Statistics Are Sufficiently Full,” Nationwide Evaluation On-line, October 17, 2024.
At the beginning, credit score have to be given the place it’s due. John R. Lott Jr., of RealClearInvestigations, was the primary to find and break the information. As he defined, the FBI initially launched its “remaining” crime knowledge for 2022 in September of 2023. On the time, it was reported that the general violent crime fee had fallen by 2.1%. The Bureau dropped numbers in an October 16, 2023, press launch, extolling a 6.1% drop in murders and a 5.4% drop in rapes in comparison with the earlier yr – bear in mind this announcement, as it’ll turn out to be related quickly sufficient. The Democratic Celebration and the left-wing media shortly seized it as a speaking level. And why shouldn’t they? If true, it actually makes it seem to be the Biden-Harris administration had been cleansing up the streets, so to talk. . . .
The replace exhibits that there have been really 80,029 extra violent crimes reported to the FBI in 2022 than in 2021. This contains a rise of 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. So, slightly than lowering by 2.1% in 2022, violent crime elevated by 4.5% – a complete discrepancy of 6.6%! Now, do not forget that detailed announcement in 2023? Right here’s how the Bureau let everybody know that it had fastened an error in the latest press launch: “The 2022 violent crime fee has been up to date for inclusion in CIUS, 2023.” After numbers like that … nothing?
Certainly, even the media continued the lie. As Lott defined in his report, a USA In the present day headline – printed after the replace – learn: “Violent crime dropped for third straight yr in 2023, together with homicide and rape.” CNN additionally ran a misleading story that utterly ignored this transformation. “New FBI statistics present continued drop in US crime in first six months of 2024,” learn the September 30 headline. “Crime in the USA dropped all through the primary six months of 2024, based on preliminary figures launched Monday by the FBI, persevering with a pattern in falling crime charges the bureau not too long ago famous for 2023,” the introductory line reads. The self-declared “most trusted title in information” then went on to element the drop in 2023 numbers over the earlier yr, however didn’t as soon as point out 2022 immediately or the amended stats in any respect. As Lott put it on the time his article was printed, “It’s been over three weeks because the FBI launched the revised knowledge. The Bureau’s lack of acknowledgement or rationalization concerning the important change considerations researchers.” . . .
James Fite, “FBI Mounted Massively Underreported Crime Stats – And Informed No person,” Liberty Nation Information, October 18, 2024.
El FBI retocó, en secreto, los datos de robos, violaciones y asesinatos de 2022. Así lo reveló una pesquisa de RealClear Investigations (RCI), que descubrió que en vez de una caída del 2,1% en crímenes violentos, hubo un aumento del 4,5%.
En septiembre de 2023, la agencia reportó que el año anterior había cerrado con una caída de más de dos puntos en los crímenes violentos. La cifra fue usada desde entonces por la campaña demócrata como evidencia de los logros en materia de seguridad de la Administración Biden-Harris.
Un año más tarde, sin embargo, el FBI corrigió estos números. Aunque no lo anunció más que con unas escuetas palabras en un pie de página: “La tasa de delitos violentos de 2022 se ha actualizado para su inclusión en CIUS, 2023”. Aquellas despertaron las sospechas del RCI. Al descargar los nuevos datos, notaron el cambio: un aumento del 4,5% en crímenes violentos.
Tras el ajuste, los registros cuentan con 1.699 más asesinatos, 33.459 más robos, 7.780 más violaciones y 37.091 más agresiones con agravantes. En complete: 80.029 delitos violentos que habían quedado bajo la alfombra.
El analista John R. Lott Jr, autor del estudio, sostuvo que sus hallazgos plantean cuestiones sobre las metodologías de recopilación de datos, pero remarcó que nada parece justificar estos incrementos “dramáticos”. El mejor ejemplo, explicó, son los asesinatos. A pesar de ser un crimen del que suele haber un registro confiable, porque la mayoría se reportan, “los datos revisados para 2021 y 2022 muestran un aumento neto de 1.699 asesinatos”, sostuvo. “¿Cómo se les escapan 1.699 asesinatos?”. . . .
Workers, “El FBI, de nuevo envuelto en el escándalo: manipuló las cifras de criminalidad para que pareciera que con Biden-Harris habían bajado,” Advert Alerta Digital, October 19, 2024.
John Lott — president of the Crime Prevention Analysis Heart and former Justice Division senior adviser for analysis and statistics — in a Wednesday piece for Actual Clear Investigations documented how the FBI’s not too long ago launched revised knowledge for 2022 confirmed violent crime elevated by 4.5 % over the earlier yr. . . .
Randy DeSoto, “Tump was Proper,” The Western Journal, October 16, 2024.
John R. Lott, a revered researcher who wrote the article, notes that “whereas the FBI claims that critical violent crime has fallen by 5.8% since Biden took workplace, the NCVS numbers present that complete violent crime has risen by 55.4%. Rapes are up by 42%, theft by 63%, and aggravated assault by 55% throughout Biden’s time period. Because the NCVS began, the most important earlier improve over three years was 27% in 2006, so the rise underneath Biden was barely greater than twice as massive.” . . .
Daniel Greenfield, “FBI Faked Crime Drop by Leaving Out 1,699 Murders,” Entrance Web page Journal, October 16, 2024.
