Crime and information skilled John Lott spoke to Fox Information Digital concerning how the FBI up to date its violent crime stats for 2022, displaying a rise in violent crimes, not a lower.
Greg Wehner, “Bullets fly at Detroit condominium complicated as two shot, one fatally, in drive-by taking pictures,” Fox Information, October 21, 2024
President of the Crime Prevention Analysis Middle John R. Lott Jr. has stumbled throughout some critically sketchy information launched by the FBI.
“All of us keep in mind the notorious fact-check within the presidential debate when Donald Trump was speaking about rising crime charges and ABC Information was like, ‘There has not been rising crime charges based on the FBI,’” Liz Wheeler of “The Liz Wheeler Present” tells John.
“This, you’ve discovered, is fake,” she provides. . . .
BlazeTV Employees, “SHOCKING: FBI BUSTED for sketchy crime information,” Blazemedia, October 20, 2024.
The company’s standards for a reported crime doesn’t essentially embody all 911 calls, which artificially depresses the variety of crimes mirrored within the nationwide information in sure instances, Crime Prevention Analysis Middle Director John Lott instructed the DCNF.
“To ensure that the FBI to rely it, a police report needs to be crammed out,” Lott mentioned. “Over the previous couple of years, we now have a state of affairs the place in case you name a 911 operator and also you say it’s not an emergency, or that the prison has gone away, you’d need to go right down to the police station to fill out a police report.” . . .
Wallace White, “Dems, Company Media Rushed To Cite FBI Knowledge Exhibiting Crime Lower — Consultants Say The Numbers Are Flawed,” Day by day Caller, October 20, 2024.
The latter narrative took successful lately when the FBI quietly revised its 2022 numbers, which initially indicated a 2.1 % drop in violent crime. Economist John R. Lott Jr., president of the Crime Prevention Analysis Middle, discovered that the revised numbers point out a 4.5 % rise within the reported violent crime price, which you’ll be able to see on this FBI Excel file. Final month, the FBI estimated a 3 % drop in reported violent crime between 2022 and 2023, which Lott says would have been half as giant however for the change within the 2022 numbers.
Lott says the FBI publicly famous that upward revision solely with a imprecise assertion that “the 2022 violent crime price has been up to date.” He and different critics argue that the FBI’s reticence makes it laborious to belief the company’s information: If the FBI’s 2022 “replace” modified a lower into a rise, can we be assured that one thing related received’t occur with the 2023 numbers? What in regards to the FBI’s preliminary numbers for 2024, which point out a 10.3 % drop in reported violent crime between the primary half of final 12 months and the primary half of this 12 months? . . .
One issue could possibly be a drop within the share of crimes reported to police, which based on the NCVS fell from 45.6 % in 2021 to 41.5 % in 2022. Lott suggests one other potential clarification in his Actual Clear Investigations piece in regards to the FBI’s revised 2022 numbers:
Over the previous few years, the variety of law enforcement officials has declined due to cuts in budgets and lots of retirements. One result’s that police departments nationwide—from Charlottesville and Henrico County, Va., to Chicago, Unwell. and Olympia, Wash.—are not responding to calls except the perpetrator continues to be there actively committing the crime. As a substitute of police popping out to analyze and take a report, residents in these jurisdictions can nonetheless go to the police station and wait in line to get a police report crammed out. As well as, regardless of the widespread perception that calling 911 is sufficient to report a criminal offense, the FBI formally doesn’t tally 911 calls. It solely counts crimes when police make out an official report.
Against this, Lott says in an electronic mail, the NCVS might report crimes as reported to police even when there is no such thing as a official report as a result of “individuals imagine calling up 911 counts as reporting a criminal offense.” . . .
Jacob Sullum, “The FBI’s Quiet Revision of Its 2022 Crime Numbers Provides Gas to an Argument Between Harris and Trump,” Motive, October 21, 2024.
John Lott, founder and president of the Crime Prevention Analysis Middle, instructed Fox Information Digital that when the FBI launched its annual crime information for 2022 final 12 months, it confirmed a 2.1% lower in violent crime in comparison with 2021. Democrats seized on that report to say their insurance policies (no matter they’re) had led to a discount in crime, which they mentioned blew holes in Donald Trump and Republicans’ claims that the present administration’s insurance policies on crime and the border have been working. Not a lot.
The revised information confirmed a internet improve of 80,029 violent crimes in 2022 over 2021. Lott instructed Fox that beneath the definition of violent crime, there have been an extra 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults that 12 months.
“To offer individuals an thought of the dimensions of the change, when the 2022 information got here out in September 2023, they initially reported that violent crime had fallen by 2.1% in 2022…That’s the ultimate information, supposedly, for 2022. The revision of that last information that got here out final month now claims that fairly than the two.1% drop, that there was truly a 4.5% improve in violent crime that occurred in 2022. That’s a 6.6 proportion level change there,” Lott instructed Fox Information Digital.
“It’s from a drop to a rise. And, you realize, the weird factor to me is, for a 12 months after the 2022 information was put out, we have been having headlines, information articles after information articles saying, ‘Violent crime is falling, individuals mistakenly or erroneously imagine that it’s rising.’ And, you realize, they usually have been counting on this information,” Lott continued. “However you don’t see any corrections within the information, saying, ‘Oops, the FBI information that we relied on was improper, that fairly than a drop, there was truly a rise that had occurred.” . . .
Pat Droney, “Trump vindicated? FBI revises violent crime statistics up; Biden-Harris, media proceed to gaslight the general public,” Legislation Enforcement Right this moment, October 19, 2024.
Crime isn’t, the truth is, taking place. It seems the FBI’s numbers have been phony from the start.
The Bureau had initially reported there was a 2.1% drop in violent crimes in 2022. However after a revision to the information set, it admitted in a September 2024 press launch that there was truly a 4.5% improve!
As John R. Lott of the Crime Prevention Analysis Middle paperwork, even this reported improve in crime masks the true extent of it. That’s as a result of an rising variety of crimes are going unreported and unprosecuted. . . .
Nationwide Crime Victimization Survey numbers present that whole violent crime has risen by a 55% since Joe Biden assumed workplace.
Robberies, as reported by victims themselves, are up a grim 63%.
If you happen to don’t wish to turn into one other addition to these “crimeflation” statistics, then you’ll want to take precautions.
For instance, flashing your wealth round by sporting costly jewellery or watches out in public might not be secure (many police departments now particularly warn in opposition to it). . . .
Cash Metals Information Service, “People Are Dwelling in Concern of ‘Crimeflation’,” Headline Information, October 28, 2024
As John R. Lott Jr., president of the Crime Prevention Analysis Middle, explains at RealClearInvestigations:
RCI found the change by way of a cryptic reference on the FBI web site that states: “The 2022 violent crime price has been up to date for inclusion in CIUS, 2023.” However there is no such thing as a point out that the numbers elevated. One solely sees the change by downloading the FBI’s new crime information and evaluating it to the file launched final 12 months.
The up to date information for 2022 report that there have been 80,029 extra violent crimes than in 2021. There have been an extra 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. The query naturally arises: ought to the FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed?
“The FBI claims that critical violent crime has fallen by 5.8% since Biden took workplace, the Nationwide Crime Victimization Survey numbers present that whole violent crime has risen by 55.4%. Rapes are up by 42%, theft by 63%, and aggravated assault by 55% throughout Biden’s time period. For the reason that NCVS began, the most important earlier improve over three years was 27% in 2006, so the rise beneath Biden was barely greater than twice as giant. . . .
Katy Grimes, “FBI Quietly Revises its Cowl Up of Growing Violent Crime,” California Globe, October 21, 2024.
The FBI quietly launched revised numbers lately that reveal that fairly than reducing by 2.1%, violent crime in 2022 truly elevated by 4.5%.
Based on unique analysis carried out by John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Analysis Middle (CPRC), the changes characterize a internet improve of 80,029 extra violent crimes, together with 1,699 extra murders, 7,780 extra rapes, 33,459 extra robberies and 37,091 extra aggravated assaults.
“A serious weak point for reported crime information is that the majority crimes aren’t reported to the police,” Lott mentioned in a report on the revised statistics. “Homicide has the benefit as a result of the overwhelming majority of murders are reported. However the revised information for 2021 and 2022 exhibits a internet improve of 1,699 extra murders. How do you miss 1,699 murders?”
In an October report posted at RealClearInvestigations (RCI), Lott wrote that even three weeks after the revised numbers have been launched, the FBI hadn’t bothered to elucidate—and even acknowledge—the numerous change.
“I’ve checked the information on whole violent crime from 2004 to 2022,” mentioned Carl Moody, a professor on the Faculty of William & Mary who focuses on learning crime. “There have been no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, there have been small modifications of lower than one proportion level. The large modifications in 2021 and 2022, particularly with out an evidence, make it troublesome to belief the FBI information.”
Moody can also be involved that no one within the mainstream media is reporting on the vital story in regards to the improve.
“With the media utilizing the 2022 FBI information to inform us for a 12 months that crime was falling, it’s disappointing that there aren’t any information articles correcting that misimpression,” Moody instructed RCI. “We should see whether or not the FBI later additionally revises the 2023 numbers.”
That reality is hammered residence by an October report claiming to “reality test” each Trump and Harris on their violent crime claims.
“Crime researchers inform CBS Information that whereas each are priceless metrics, the FBI information Harris cites is extra dependable, and he or she is appropriate that it suggests violent crime is at a close to 50-year low,” the report states, utterly ignoring the revised statistics launched three weeks earlier. . . .
Mark Chesnut, “FBI Quietly Revises Violent Crime Knowledge,” America’s 1st Freedom, October 24, 2024.
. . . The FBI initially claimed that violent crime fell throughout 2022 when it printed its October 2023 report (the newest information obtainable). Nevertheless, Dr. John R. Lott, Jr., head of the Crime Prevention Analysis Middle, broke the information that the FBI secretly up to date their information for 2021 and 2022, and the true information are that violent crime elevated 4.5% with 80,029 extra violent crimes, 1,699 extra murders, 7,780 extra rapes, 33,459 extra robberies, and 37,091 extra aggravated assaults. . . .
Employees, “The Levites, 1643, and Right this moment – Church Safety Via the Ages,” News2A, October 25, 2024.
Stealth Edit: FBI Quietly Revises Violent Crime Stats, by Dr. John Lott of the Crime Prevention Analysis Middle, describes how in 2023, the FBI reported that for 2022, “the nation’s violent crime price fell by 2.1%. This rapidly turned, and stays, a Democratic Occasion speaking level to counter Donald Trump’s claims of hovering crime.” Subsequently, although, the FBI “quietly revised these numbers, releasing new information that exhibits violent crime elevated in 2022 by 4.5%. … The Bureau –which has been on the middle of partisan storms –made no point out of those revisions in its September 2024 press launch.” The 6.6% change turns into obvious solely after “downloading the FBI’s new crime information and evaluating it to the file launched final 12 months.”
Lott notes that when the FBI’s information was initially printed in September 2023, it was utilized in a information article that highlighted the significance of crime charges as a “key problem” within the upcoming election, and which credited the Biden-Harris administration’s actions for reductions in violent crime “for the third straight 12 months in 2023.” . . .
Employees :Authorities gaslighting: FBI stealthy crime information revisions,: Buckeye Firearms Affiliation, October 22, 2024.
On a latest episode of Fox Information’ “Gutfeld!”, host Greg Gutfeld took goal on the FBI over a quiet but important revision to its 2022 violent crime statistics.
The difficulty was dropped at gentle by John Lott’s investigative piece for Actual Clear Investigations, titled “Stealth Edit: FBI Quietly Revises Violent Crime Stats.”
Initially, the FBI reported that violent crime had dropped by 2.1% in 2022, however as Lott uncovered, the true numbers confirmed a 4.5% improve.
In his typical comedic type, Gutfeld sarcastically in contrast the FBI’s revised information to “extra fudged than Brian Stelter’s fingertips” and quipped in regards to the drastic swing within the stats being greater than “the one Pleasure Behar put in over her mattress.” . . .
Employees, “Lott was Proper! FBI Revises Violent Crime Stats!,” Weapons America, October 212, 2024.
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