U.S. educational and crime analyst John Lott Jr. says extra dialogue is required on how mass shooters plan their assaults, reasonably than simply motivation and beliefs, which usually receives probably the most media consideration.
Lott Jr., founding father of the Crime Prevention Analysis Middle, was in Australia on a talking tour final month following the Bondi Seaside terror assault that focused the Jewish celebration of Hanukkah and killed 15 folks on Dec. 14. final yr.
The response to Bondi has included harder gun management, a nationwide gun buyback scheme, and new anti-hate speech legal guidelines.
But Lott Jr. says the strategies of mass shooters will be neglected, even when they’ve a stark bearing on how governments ought to take care of such incidents.
“I’ve learn actually dozens of diaries and manifestos from these mass murderers, many dozens,” he instructed The Epoch Occasions, noting he had interviewed tons of of witnesses too.
“And , sure patterns happen very frequently,” Lott Jr. stated.
“These monsters go and clarify why they picked the targets that they did. It’s not random, and sadly, the media actually ignores why these guys say they decide the targets.”
Lott Jr. says mass shooters have a tendency to decide on “simple” targets and areas the place they’ll acquire probably the most media consideration, whereas avoiding being harmed themselves. . . .[Much more here]
Crystal-Rose Jones and Daniel Teng, “How Do Mass Shooters Choose Their Targets? Knowledgeable Says Key Query Usually Ignored,” Epoch Occasions, March 7, 2026.
The media tells us the proliferation of trans shooters is a phantom. They’re not the slightest hazard to themselves or anybody else. White males are the actual hazard. Dr. John R. Lott of the Crime Prevention Analysis Middle has discovered in any other case. . . . . [Long quote from Lott]
Lott is a cautious researcher who usually writes on gun points. Anti-liberty/gun cracktivists hate him and disparage his analysis, however can’t moderately assault his knowledge and conclusions, as a result of in contrast to his critics, he engages in actual science and makes obtainable his knowledge units and strategies. In contrast to Politico and others, he accounted for trans’ share of the inhabitants.
So, what portion of the inhabitants is trans?. . . . [Long quote from Lott]
Utilizing quite a lot of sources, Lott concludes that trans comprise 0.73% of the inhabitants, and if Twenge’s research is taken under consideration—my assertion, not Lott’s—that quantity is probably going at the moment smaller.
Utilizing all obtainable knowledge, Lott concludes that trans commit mass taking pictures assaults at from 12 to 16.3 instances their share of the inhabitants, an correct and beautiful conclusion. The 12 to 16.3 span depends on which years are sampled. Trans are additionally dangerously suicidal: . . . [Long quote from Lott]
Mike McDaniel, “The media says trans aren’t harmful; are they mendacity?,” American Thinker, March 8, 2026
The Crime Prevention Analysis Middle’s evaluation of FBI knowledge discovered that rifles’ share of firearm murders was 4.8 % earlier than the 1994 assault weapons ban, 4.9 % throughout it, and three.6 % after it expired. The ban made no measurable distinction, which is what you’d anticipate while you’re legislating towards a fraction of a fraction. . . .
Jay Rogers, “The Downside with Blaming the Gun,” American Thinker, March 8, 2026.
The Crime Prevention Analysis Middle in 2025 estimated that over 19 % of the Colorado inhabitants 21 or older holds a carry allow. A CHP is legitimate for five-years. . . .
Mike Krause, “Practically 28,000 Colorado hid carry permits issued in 2025,” Full Colorado, March 9, 2026.
The Crime Prevention Analysis Middle in 2025 estimated that over 19 % of the Colorado inhabitants 21 or older holds a carry allow. A CHP is legitimate for five-years. . . .
Mike Krause, “Colorado Sees Sturdy Hid Carry Allow Numbers Regardless of New Restrictions,” The Rocky Mountain Voice, March 10, 2026.
On the Crime Prevention Analysis Middle, a slight drop in hid carry permits has been occurring. This was attributed to the rise in Constitutional Carry (permitless carry), which is now as much as 29 states. Such a drop might clarify the decline within the variety of background checks for firearms permits and allow rechecks. Allow and allow recheck volumes have fluctuated, complicating the correlation between NICS background checks and firearm gross sales. They’re the key motive the NSSF adjusted NICS is a significantly better measure of firearm gross sales. The adjusted numbers exclude NICS background checks performed for permits and allow rechecks. . . .
Dean Weingarten, “Gun Gross sales Rise 3.5% in February 2026 Regardless of Drop in NICS Background Checks,” Ammoland, March 10, 2026.
Analysis cited by the Crime Prevention Analysis Middle (CPRC) additionally notes that defensive gun use usually receives little media consideration, regardless that armed residents typically cease crimes earlier than police arrive.
Information compiled by the Crime Prevention Analysis Middle reveals that hid carry allow holders commit firearms-related violations at extraordinarily low charges in comparison with the final inhabitants.
One CPRC evaluation discovered that let holders are convicted of firearm violations at about 1/12 the speed of cops and roughly 1/240th the speed of most of the people. . . .
“Chicago House owner Shoots Alleged Intruder Throughout South Facet Break-In,” Ammoland, March 9, 2026.
In the meantime, within the closing two years of the Obama presidency, 2015 and 2016, “ICE recorded 263 mistaken arrests, 54 mistaken detentions (book-ins), and 4 mistaken removals” (Crime Prevention Analysis Middle, 1-22-26).
Throughout 2015-2016, “ICE made a mere 239,645 arrests, which means the 54 mistaken detentions alone produced an Obama error price of 0.0225% — about one mistake for each 4,444 arrests….”
Moreover, over the course of Obama-Biden administration, 2009-2016, “56 people died in ICE custody…. Roughly one dying for each 14,314 detainees.”
Lastly, “ICE below Obama deported two US residents in fiscal yr 2015, and two extra in fiscal yr 2016.” . . .
“Democrats play a component in deportation problem,” The Brookings Register (South Dakota), March 6, 2026.
A crime research from John Lott, founder and president of the Crime Prevention Analysis Middle, and Carlisle E. Moody, professor of economics, emeritus with the Faculty of William and Mary, signifies that armed residents are higher at stopping mass killers than the police.
This knowledge runs counter to mainstream-news narratives.
Certainly, when hid carry comes up in public debate, gun-control teams and the media members who repeat their speaking factors declare that we are able to’t belief on a regular basis People with this constitutionally protected proper. They are saying, if residents can carry hid weapons, we’ll have “Wild West shootouts” on the streets. In addition they argue that armed residents—folks they presume are untrained—will shoot indiscriminately at a mass killer and thereby kill or wound innocents within the crossfire.
As these statistically uncommon crimes have occurred, nevertheless, these fears haven’t been realized. Certainly, although every time a constitutional-carry regulation is taken into account gun-control advocates have made these claims, not one of the now 29 constitutional-carry states have put licensing regimes again in place. They haven’t accomplished so as a result of these items haven’t occurred.
Some key takeaways from this analysis paper embrace:
— Armed residents scale back the variety of victims wounded in energetic shooter incidents by 2.7-5.2 whereas the police haven’t any vital impact.
— Armed residents scale back the variety of casualties by 5.6-8.8 whereas police response leads to a small improve that’s considerably completely different from zero on the .10 degree in three out of 4 fashions.
— The variety of victims killed, wounded, or the whole variety of casualties is considerably diminished if armed residents cease the assault in comparison with the state of affairs the place the police cease the assault.
— With respect to unlucky mishaps, Desk 2 reveals that armed residents have shot the unsuitable individual as soon as whereas cops have shot the unsuitable individual 4 instances, together with pleasant hearth.
Lott and Moody hypothesize that armed residents cease energetic murderers with fewer casualties than police as a result of they’ve a tactical benefit. Uniformed cops usually get a scene after a assassin has began taking pictures folks. The responding officers can then be focused as a result of they stand out. In distinction, anybody could possibly be an armed civilian. They mix in and usually tend to already be on the scene.
Many such murderers are even recognized to have averted locations the place cops are current—they search for gentle targets.
“The 2012 Batman movie show shooter scouted seven theaters inside 20 minutes of his condominium that had been displaying the brand new Batman film that evening—and selected the one one which banned weapons,” notes this paper. “In 2015, Charleston Church shooter … instructed a buddy he initially deliberate to focus on a faculty however “couldn’t get into the varsity due to the safety,’ so he ‘simply settled for the church.’ Equally, the Nashville Covenant College shooter had initially thought of the Inexperienced Hills Mall as her major goal however rejected it as a result of it had ‘an excessive amount of safety.’”
Many such murderers have dedicated suicide as quickly as police arrived on the scene and cops have stopped many others. Lott and Moody frequently level out what a tough job first responders have and that they usually to do very courageous issues for the remainder of us. The info, nevertheless, additionally reveals that armed residents will be part of the answer to shortly stopping such sociopaths and terrorists. Many within the media merely gained’t report this a part of the story.
In sum, this analysis research decided that the “variety of victims killed, wounded, or the whole variety of casualties is considerably diminished if armed residents cease the assault in comparison with the state of affairs the place the police cease the assault.”
Frank Miniter, “Armed Residents Outperform the Police in Stopping Mass Murderers,” American Rifleman, March 5, 2026.
Once I first sat down to jot down this, my intent was to current a scientific evaluation of John Lott’s analysis and the statistical failure of the gun-free zone. However because the phrases hit the web page, the information gave solution to recollections, and this piece remodeled into one thing rather more private. It grew to become a testomony to why we based FASTER Saves Lives (School/Administrator Security Coaching and Emergency Response)—a motion born out of a refusal to just accept the established order, however then thrust upon us by the horrific occasions of Sandy Hook.
I spent years touring to dozens of late-night college board conferences, advocating for an answer to the “gun-free” dying traps our youngsters are pressured to inhabit. I’ve sat in these sterile college boardrooms, trying into the eyes of policymakers, pleading for the “FASTER reply” to the helpless homicide of our youngsters. I keep in mind trying into the eyes of a decided FASTER observer who, after witnessing this system’s influence, made the life-changing choice to take FASTER again to her personal state to guard her personal group. My direct involvement in these early coaching periods is now a distant reminiscence, however the influence stays etched in my thoughts. . . .
“Why “Gun-Free” Zones are a Reward to Killers – #2A,” Southern Nation, March 7, 2026.
