Dr. John Lott has a brand new op-ed at Townhall.
Information headlines throughout the nation repeated a College of Colorado public well being research claiming that “1 out of each 15 American adults have been at a mass capturing.” That determine suggests 18 million People have witnessed a mass capturing firsthand and 5.6 million had been “injured”—outrageous claims that collapse underneath fundamental scrutiny. But reporters maintain repeating this declare with out query or asking any researchers who could be crucial of the survey.
The survey paper engages in a little bit of bait and swap. The primary sentence begins by defining a mass capturing as the capturing of 4 or extra folks (wounded or killed). However the survey by no means asks these surveyed in the event that they skilled that particular situation. As an alternative, it vaguely asks whether or not they’ve ever been “bodily current on the scene of a mass capturing in your lifetime,” with out clarifying what qualifies as such an occasion.
That features seemingly all the pieces—gang violence, home arguments, and even drive-by shootings with no victims. The query’s wording is so broad it’d even cowl battle zone experiences. They don’t even point out whether or not these shootings have to be a part of against the law.
And what does “mass” imply right here? A couple of shot fired? Listening to gunfire—or fireworks—late at night time in a high-crime neighborhood? Does anybody must be shot? This framing is so free that the survey might simply rely somebody who merely hears distant gunshots as a “mass capturing survivor.”
The authors reference a definition of mass public shootings from the Congressional Analysis Service (CRS) and declare that their work is expounded to it. However they fully ignore that definition seems to be at 4 or extra folks murdered, and it excludes murders “attributable to some other underlying prison exercise or commonplace circumstance (armed theft, prison competitors, insurance coverage fraud, argument, or romantic triangle).” The CRS notes that “a big proportion of these incidents had been drug- and/or gang-related.” The survey questions additionally ignore the “public house” a part of the definition.
The CRS definition tried to the assaults in locations like malls, faculties, and different public locations the place the only real purpose was to kill or wound folks that have grabbed the nationwide public consideration. The survey desires folks to assume that’s what they’re measuring, not that they could embody mass shootings in wars.
The authors additionally reference a definition of mass shootings from the Gun Violence Archive (GVA), a gun management group, which usually focuses on 4 or extra folks shot.
The GVA has information over the eleven years beginning in January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2024. Let’s settle for their declare there have been 5,183 of those assaults, with 21,552 victims injured (there have been one other 220 suspects), although that features extra instances than match the definition of 4 or extra folks shot. That may be a good distance from 5.6 million injured, although they’re speaking above over folks’s lifetimes. Even when we assume the speed held regular over 55 years, the overall variety of folks injured (together with attackers) would attain solely 108,860 — 1.94% of the 5.6 million reportedly uncovered. And since gun management activists argue that mass shootings have elevated over time, making use of a continuing price throughout all 55 years virtually actually overstates the precise variety of folks shot.
If the survey was severe, it could have requested very totally different questions and made it clear to the respondents what “mass capturing” meant. For instance, as a substitute of asking: “Have you ever personally ever been bodily current on the scene of a mass capturing in your lifetime?” They might ask: “Have you ever personally ever been bodily current on the scene of a mass capturing crime the place 4 or extra folks have been shot in a public place in your lifetime?”
After all of the misinformation public well being researchers unfold throughout COVID, the general public ought to now view their analysis with better skepticism. However the legacy media stays a unique story. They proceed to embrace claims that match their most popular narrative, exhibiting little signal of questioning or verifying the proof behind them.
John R. Lott, Jr., “But Extra Nugatory Public Well being “Analysis” On Weapons,” Townhall, April 17, 2025.
