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At Real Clear Politics: WSJ’s Fearmongering Doesn’t Survive Contact With the Evidence – Crime Prevention Research Center

At Real Clear Politics: WSJ’s Fearmongering Doesn’t Survive Contact With the Evidence – Crime Prevention Research Center


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Legally armed civilians, we’re informed, pose a serious hazard. They shoot harmless bystanders, justifiably kill others at any time when they personally consider “drive is fairly essential,” and depend on racist self-defense legal guidelines.

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At the very least these considerations are the case in a number of current information articles within the Wall Avenue Journal. On Monday, with the story on the entrance web page of the Journal, reporter Mark Maremont continued his assaults on folks legally carrying hid handguns. His article presents 4 tales from 2021 to the current the place residents who used a gun in self-defense by chance shot a bystander. 

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However with greater than 1.6 million defensive gun makes use of annually, nearly 21 million allow holders, and 29 constitutional-carry states the place a allow to hold isn’t essential, 4 instances over 4 years gives little perspective.

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Even worse, solely two of the 4 instances even contain individuals who had been legally carrying hid handguns in public (one case every from Massachusetts and Michigan). Within the Ohio case, the comfort retailer worker had the gun at her office, so concealed-carry legal guidelines didn’t apply. Within the California case, the state required a allow, however there isn’t a proof that the person had a allow.

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The Wall Avenue Journal article warns concerning the risks of constitutional carry (what it calls “permitless carry”) and quotes gun-control advocates claiming that “When untrained or panicked shooters miss their goal, it’s kids, neighbors and bystanders who pay the value.” But, not a single one of many article’s examples concerned constitutional carry.

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To look at the difficulty extra straight, the Crime Prevention Analysis Heart, which I head, used ChatGPT and Grok to look information reviews and compile an inventory of instances from the previous decade wherein concealed-carry allow holders by chance shot an harmless bystander. Since 2016, we’ve additionally collected instances the place folks legally carrying weapons in public have used them to cease crimes and we’ve reviewed these instances. All collectively there have been 4 instances from 2016 via almost all of 2025. One listed incident concerned a safety guard, who arguably shouldn’t be counted.

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From 2016 to 2025, together with the security-guard case, allow holders by chance shot 5 bystanders – two killed and three wounded. Excluding the safety guard, allow holders shot three bystanders – two killed and one wounded.

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However the difficulty isn’t one among perfection. The query is: What’s the different?

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We then did the similar overview of police incidents from 2016 to 2025 and located 20 instances wherein officers by chance shot a complete of 28 bystanders: six killed and 22 wounded. In a single case, an officer wounded six folks; in one other, three officers wounded three folks. Some information tales don’t clarify whether or not the prison or the police shot the bystander, so these numbers could understate the full variety of bystanders shot by police.

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General, police by chance wounded 5.6 occasions as many bystanders as civilians (together with the security-guard case), killed thrice as many, and wounded seven occasions as many. Excluding the safety guard, police shot seven occasions extra bystanders, killed thrice extra, and wounded 22 occasions extra. With out the safety guard case, bystanders had been seven occasions extra doubtless to be by chance shot by police than by civilians.

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Different analysis utilizing the FBI’s active-shooter definition confirms this sample. We checked out instances from 2014 to 2024 – instances the place people actively try to kill folks in a public space and excluding shootings tied to different crimes – exhibiting that armed civilians constantly act safely and successfully. They stopped over half of the assaults in locations the place they may legally carry, extra continuously than police.

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Police are extraordinarily necessary in stopping crime, and analysis exhibits they’re the one most necessary issue. However their uniforms make them function at an actual tactical drawback in stopping these shootings. Attackers can look forward to officers to depart, strike elsewhere, or shoot them first. Because of this, police had been killed at eleven occasions the speed of intervening civilians and by chance killed civilians or fellow officers 5 occasions – or 5 occasions greater than civilians by chance shot bystanders.

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Attackers don’t simply keep away from law enforcement officials – they threat encountering far fewer of them than allow holders. In 2020, the U.S. had roughly 671,000 full-time sworn regulation enforcement officers, and usually fewer than 240,000 had been on obligation at any given time, amounting to lower than 0.1% of the inhabitants. Against this, nearly 21 million adults held concealed-carry permits, representing about 7.8% of the grownup inhabitants.

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Allow holders are additionally extraordinarily law-abiding, dropping their licenses for firearm-related violations at charges of thousandths or tens of thousandths of 1 share level. Police not often commit crimes, however hid handgun allow holders are much more law-abiding, dealing with a conviction fee for firearms offenses that’s simply 1/twelfth the speed of police convictions.

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Sadly, that isn’t the one current drawback with the Wall Avenue Journal information articles. One other lengthy article co-authored by Maremont on the finish of October warns that justifiable homicides elevated after Stand Your Floor legal guidelines made it simpler for folks to defend themselves. What the article ignores is that whereas justifiable self protection killings rose, within the first 5 years after Stand Your Floor legal guidelines are adopted, homicide charges fell on common by greater than 8%.

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The article misstates the authorized principal that governs what’s justifiable self-defense. It claims that anybody can shoot one other particular person by merely claiming they thought drive was “fairly essential.” However that isn’t the usual. The regulation requires {that a} cheap third get together consider the defendant confronted a critical threat of damage or loss of life from the assault.

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However the truth that there have been fewer murders and extra self-defense makes use of is strictly what the proponents of Stand Your Floor would predict. On prime of that, one more Journal piece attacked these legal guidelines as racist as a result of “Nationwide, Black males and boys account for nearly two-thirds of the victims in civilian justifiable homicides, based on the Journal evaluation of FBI information from 2019 to 2024.” But, the Journal ignores previous analysis exhibiting that blacks, who’re the most certainly victims of violent crime, are additionally by far the most certainly to make use of Stand Your Floor legal guidelines as a authorized protection. It is usually necessary to notice that about 90% of murders of blacks are dedicated by different blacks. The Wall Avenue Journal alarms readers by specializing in anecdotes, but it ignores intensive proof exhibiting that armed civilians pose little threat – and much much less threat to bystanders than police. Allow holders repeatedly cease crimes and lively shooters with minimal collateral hurt. Stand Your Floor legal guidelines are usually not racist nor do they trigger extreme violence; as an alternative, they’ve lowered homicide charges and empowered weak communities – particularly black victims – to defend themselves legally. By prioritizing sensational tales over strong information, such information tales finally undermine public security.

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John R. Lott, Jr., “WSJ’s Fearmongering Doesn’t Survive Contact With the Proof,” Actual Clear Politics, December 12, 2025.



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