At Breitbart: “Expert: Data Indicate Violent Crime Is Not Declining, It Is Just Not Being Reported”

A startling development primarily based on contradictory knowledge from the Bureau of Justice Statistics and the Federal Bureau of Investigation signifies that violent crime will not be taking place; somewhat, it has elevated and isn’t being reported, in response to Crime Prevention Analysis Middle President John Lott.

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Lott detailed the development throughout a Trump marketing campaign press name on Friday, hours earlier than the Nationwide Fraternal Order of Police endorsed former President Donald Trump.

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The knowledgeable pointed to a considerable divide in violent crime incidents reported by the Bureau of Justice Statistics’s Nationwide Crime Victimization Survey versus these reported by the FBI. The divide is particularly eye-poping as a result of knowledge up to now from the 2 organizations has trended intently collectively, he notes.

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“There are two measures that the Division of Justice places out on crime,” Lott defined:

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One is the FBI knowledge on crimes reported to police, and the opposite one is the Nationwide Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, which will get at a measure of whole crime, each reported and unreported. They do this by surveying a mass of 240,000 folks annually, and so they’ve been doing that for 50 years.

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“What you discover is that these two measures, previous to 2020, usually moved alongside collectively, however, since 2020, they’ve moved in reverse instructions in annually, usually by very massive quantities,” he added.“Should you take 2022, which is the final full knowledge that we now have last knowledge for each of these two measures, whereas the FBI confirmed a 2 p.c drop in reported violent crime, the Nationwide Crime Victimization knowledge confirmed a 42 p.c enhance in violent crime.”

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Certainly, in 2021, the FBI reported 387 violent crimes per 100,000 folks. The determine dropped to 380.7 per 100,000 folks in 2022. But, the Nationwide Crime Victimization survey discovered that reviews of violent crimes elevated 42 p.c, from 16.5 incidents per 1,000 folks in 2021 to 23.5 per 1,000 folks in 2022.

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In response to Lott, one reason behind this development is that the enforcement of sure crimes has “collapsed” over current years:

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Enforcement of violent crime and property crime has collapsed on this nation. Should you take simply the FBI knowledge, which is what the media, usually, and what the Democrats need to go and have a look at, within the 5 years earlier than COVID in massive cities of over one million, for instance, the typical arrest price for violent crimes was 44 p.c. It began falling, and after that, by 2022, it was down 20 p.c. That’s over a 50 p.c drop in three years. It’s by no means, in your entire time that we’ve had FBI knowledge, it’s by no means been something even intently low to that.

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[More available here]

Nick Gilbertson, “Skilled: Information Point out Violent Crime Is Not Declining, It Is Simply Not Being Reported,” Breitbar, September 6, 2024.