Are the Russians Eyeing West Papua for an Overseas Military Base?

On April 14, the protection web site IHS Janes reported that Russia is looking for permission from Indonesia to station a number of lengthy vary plane of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) on the Manuhua Air Pressure Base on Biak island within the Indonesian province of West Papua. The information broke simply as Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov arrived in Indonesia on April 15 on an official go to, the place he was welcomed by President Prabowo Subianto.

Unsurprisingly, the report got here as a shock to the Australian authorities, which has sided with Kyiv within the Russia-Ukraine struggle. Western nations – together with Australia – have imposed sanctions on VKS, the air and area department of the Russian armed forces, for its participation within the invasion of Ukraine. Reportedly, the Indonesian protection minister has since assured his Australian counterpart that there isn’t a prospect of Russian army plane working from Indonesia.

Different nations in Southeast Asia have been in all probability much less stunned however extra intrigued by the report. A few of Indonesia’s neighbors have historic ties with Russia, and several other Southeast Asian states have not too long ago joined (Indonesia) or develop into companions (Malaysia and Thailand) of the BRICS grouping, of which Russia is a founding member. Aside from Singapore, which has imposed sanctions on Russia, and the Philippines, which was alarmed by the obvious presence of a Russian submarine in its unique financial zone (EEZ) in December, Southeast Asian nations have maintained regular relations with Moscow regardless of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

As a regional bloc, the Affiliation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) maintains regular diplomatic relations with Moscow. Its most up-to-date main engagement was the twenty third ASEAN-Russia Joint Cooperation Committee on April 11, the place either side mentioned strengthening the ASEAN-Russia Strategic Partnership. Particularly on army issues, Russia continues to be a member of the ASEAN Protection Ministers’ Assembly Plus, during which it at present co-chairs the Consultants Working Group on Humanitarian Mine Motion with Laos for the interval of 2024-2027.

Strategically, Russia has lengthy had pursuits within the Indo-Pacific, together with in Southeast Asia. And these pursuits largely predate and prolong past the strategic calculations that Moscow has made in response to Western sanctions.

Briefly, Russia sees itself as a terrific energy with the identical geopolitical standing as China and the US. Given the significance of the Indo-Pacific theater, and the truth that Russia has a presence within the northern Pacific, it’s anticipated that Russia needs to undertaking some magnitude of diplomatic and army presence within the area, even when that is extra symbolic and fewer substantive than the People and Chinese language.

For instance, Russia and ASEAN carried out their first naval train (ARNEX) in December 2021 within the Malacca Strait after ASEAN held comparable workout routines with the U.S. in 2019 and with China in 2018. Russia and Indonesia then held their first bilateral naval train within the Java Sea in November 2024. 

The timing of Russia’s purported request to station army plane in West Papua appears opportune, as Moscow might need constructed extra political goodwill with Jakarta. In January of this yr, Indonesia turned the primary ASEAN nation formally to affix BRICS. The go to of Russia’s safety chief Sergei Shoigu to Indonesia in February boosted bilateral relations in protection cooperation particularly, following Prabowo’s assembly with Russian President Vladimir Putin in July 2024. 

Indonesia is eager to pursue nearer financial ties with Russia. It’s significantly keen to draw Russian investments in strategic sectors akin to vitality and mining and in Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund Danantara. Good ties with Moscow additionally look like a part of Prabowo’s technique to make Indonesia an energetic, albeit non-aligned, center energy, and as a method of balancing relations with China and the US because the competitors between the good powers intensifies. The timing is serendipitous for Indonesia on condition that the Trump administration additionally appears eager to enhance relations with Russia.

Given these developments, Russia would possibly really feel that the time is ripe for it to reinforce its presence within the area by leveraging its historic relations with Indonesia and the goodwill that has been generated by latest diplomatic engagements.

Russia has lengthy had an curiosity in Papua. In 2017, it was reported that Russian strategic bombers flew to the Manuhua Air Pressure Base for a army train with Indonesia. West Papua might be a helpful node for Russia’s intelligence assortment within the Indo-Pacific. Biak island is about 2,000 kilometers from the U.S. territory of Guam and about 2,500 kilometers from the South China Sea, the place China has develop into more and more assertive. It’s also subsequent to Papua New Guinea, which Australia, China, and the U.S. regard as strategically essential, and a few 1,300 kilometers from Darwin, Australia, which hosts a rotational power of U.S. Marines. 

Moreover, way back to 2006, Russia formulated plans to cooperate with Indonesia to construct a satellite tv for pc launch website at Biak island. This plan arose from the “Declaration of the Framework for Friendship and Partnership Relations between the Republic of Indonesia and the Russian Federation within the twenty first Century” that was signed in 2003.

West Papua is effectively suited to area exercise: It’s an space removed from busy industrial flight routes and near the equator, the place satellite tv for pc launches require much less rocket gas. It’s attainable that Russia nonetheless harbors this plan on condition that the struggle in Ukraine and China-U.S. competitors have magnified the significance of satellite tv for pc applied sciences.

What is maybe much less sure is whether or not Russia’s army presence in West Papua, if it ever eventuates, might be helpful to Prabowo’s plans to spice up safety forces within the space. It’s attainable that the Indonesian president perceives Western interference in aiding the separatist motion in West Papua as an actual risk. On this entrance, it was Russian (Soviet) forces that assisted Indonesia throughout Operation Trikora in 1961, during which it wrested management of West Papua from the Dutch.

Nonetheless, the Australian authorities and different nations in Southeast Asia ought to really feel some assurance after the Indonesian Ministry of Overseas Affairs acknowledged firmly on April 16 that “Indonesia has by no means given any nation permission to construct or possess a army base on its territory.” 

Nonetheless, this won’t present the total closure that Indonesia needs. Australian politicians and officers suspicious of Russia possible imagine that the Russian army will proceed trying to strike a deal with Indonesia. And U.S. forces within the Indo-Pacific will probably be watching how this improvement matches with the rising China-Russia-North Korea triangle, which they understand as a safety risk to the area.