After initial jubilation, some Iranian Americans fear a quagmire

Software program engineer Arin Saghatelian shed no tears when he heard that the supreme chief of his fatherland had been killed by American bombs.

“I don’t assume you’re going to search out many individuals in help of that dictatorship or the mullahs which might be in energy proper now,” mentioned Saghatelian, who lives in La Crescenta and fled Iran together with his household when he was 10. “I believe the world is a greater place right now.”

However the fleeting reduction that Saghatelian, 45, felt final week as an exile from Iran rapidly turned to the dread he feels as an American citizen and taxpayer: What if his adopted nation will get sucked into one other lengthy, lethal and costly battle just like the struggle in Iraq?

After the preliminary jubilation in “Tehrangeles” and different native Iranian American communities, with 1000’s taking to the streets to have fun the loss of life of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the tone of some conversations this week grew extra sober.

As Iranian Individuals like Saghatelian watch the fast escalation of the struggle that started with U.S. and Israeli bombs falling on Iran, some worry that their native nation, and maybe the entire Center East, might descend into chaos.

In Iraq, after a U.S. invasion toppled dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003, sectarian leaders stepped into the vacuum. The long-simmering rivalry between Sunni and Shiite Muslims erupted right into a civil struggle that killed tens of 1000’s of civilians.

Roozbeh Farahanipour, a former Iranian dissident who now lives in Los Angeles, worries {that a} destabilized Iran, with its advanced cultural heritage and patchwork of ethnic and non secular teams, might devolve right into a far worse mess than post-invasion Iraq.

“It’s extra sophisticated ethnically, civically and traditionally,” so a protracted struggle there “isn’t going to be like Iraq — it’s going to be 10 occasions worse,” he mentioned.

Of the 600,000 or so Iranians residing within the U.S., about half are in California, in response to the Iranian Diaspora Dashboard produced by UCLA’s Heart of Close to Japanese Research. By far the most important surge in immigration adopted the 1979 Islamic Revolution that despatched the U.S.-backed shah into exile and swept spiritual hard-liners into energy.

Non secular minorities, together with Christians and Jews, make up a bigger share of the expatriate neighborhood within the U.S. than they do in Iran — they’ve extra cause to go away — however Islam remains to be the dominant faith amongst Iranians right here, mentioned Kevan Harris, an affiliate professor of sociology who teaches programs on Iran and Center East politics on the UCLA Worldwide Institute.

Those that fled the revolution, and the hard-line Islamic rule that adopted, typically take into account themselves exiles from their dwelling nation. However the circulation of migrants has remained so regular that half of the Iranian-born folks within the U.S. arrived after 1994, Harris mentioned.

The politics of youthful Iranian immigrants, who come to the U.S. for all types of causes, and eat the total vary of content material accessible on-line, are extra numerous than these of their older compatriots.

Professional-Palestine protesters maintain a rally in entrance of campus police at UCLA on March 11, 2025.

(Juliana Yamada / Los Angeles Instances)

For instance, the UCLA college students protesting Israel’s struggle in Gaza final 12 months arrange their encampment not removed from Harris’ workplace window. He acknowledged some Iranian American college students contained in the makeshift compound, whereas others lined up outdoors with counterprotesters.

“There are sufficient Iranians within the U.S. now, particularly in L.A., that you will discover them on each aspect of most conflicts,” Harris mentioned.

Saghatelian, the software program engineer, fled after years of struggle that started with Iraq’s invasion of Iran in 1980 and took the lives of almost 1,000,000 folks. His mother and father wished to ensure that he and his older brother would by no means get sucked into such slaughter.

As a child, Saghatelian was pressured to flee his Tehran neighborhood throughout Iraqi bombardments.

“So I had actual, private curiosity in seeing Saddam fall,” he mentioned.

However he additionally remembers the nightmare that adopted. All of the army and civilian deaths, all the associated fee to U.S. taxpayers.

“As an American citizen, I fear about that occuring once more,” he mentioned.

And he worries that his American-born associates, who’ve loved comparatively peaceable lives, don’t notice how rapidly issues can slide into disaster.

As Christian Armenians, his household had it fairly good underneath the shah of Iran, Saghatelian mentioned, and didn’t endure that a lot within the speedy aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

“Because the spiritual mullahs got here to energy, they nonetheless revered the Armenian neighborhood. We received to maintain our church buildings,” Saghatelian mentioned. “However yearly, there was increasingly more stress. You’re nearly like a second-class citizen.”

Different ethnic minorities had it worse, Saghatelian mentioned: “When you had been Jewish, the extra hard-line the nation received, the extra hazard you had been in.”

After fleeing Iran, Saghatelian’s household spent two years in refugee camps in Germany and Austria. At one level, they had been kicked out of the Austrian refugee program and have become homeless till a Catholic priest took them in and made them caretakers of a medieval church.

However like so many others fleeing Iran, his household’s plan was to discover a option to the USA, which they lastly did, settling in Glendale when he was 12.

Since then, he has centered on constructing his life right here, with no actual need to return. However he has stored an eye fixed on situations in his native nation over time, and his mom stays in contact with an uncle who remains to be there.

“It’s a phenomenal nation. I might love to have the ability to go to freely as a United States citizen,” he mentioned.

“Regime Change in Iran” indicators and photographs of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s final shah, will be seen in numerous store home windows on Westwood Boulevard as neighborhood members and enterprise homeowners react to the U.S. and Israel bombing Iran..

(Jason Armond / Los Angeles Instances)

However he doesn’t assume the Iranian authorities will quit with out a lengthy combat, nor does he imagine the Trump administration has a long-term plan.

Farahanipour, 54, additionally considers himself an exile. In the summertime of 1999, he was a 27-year-old journalist in Tehran who grew to become a recognizable determine in a scholar protest motion that known as for a free press, the tip of presidency censorship and equal rights for ladies. Some, together with him, publicly known as for Khamenei to resign — which was unthinkable on the time, Farahanipour mentioned.

In response, the regime shut down a well known reformist newspaper, despatched safety forces into a school dormitory and beat and jailed college students who participated in public demonstrations.

On July 12, 1999, Khamenei took to the nationwide airwaves and known as the scholars “rioters” and pawns of overseas enemies. Removed from being discouraged, Farahanipour mentioned, he was in awe. Forcing Khamenei to reply was “the proudest second of my life,” he mentioned, smiling on the reminiscence.

However he didn’t have a lot time to bask within the glory.

“I acquired a loss of life sentence from the regime,” he mentioned, as calmly as others may say they received a parking ticket. Then got here three fatwas — spiritual decrees — calling for his loss of life, he mentioned.

That was after years of seeing relations and acquaintances get “arrested, tortured and executed” by the federal government.

“They hated me and I hated them. It was a two-way avenue,” he mentioned, which left him with just one selection: looking for asylum in the USA.

Roozbeh Farahanipour, proprietor of Delphi Greek restaurant in Westwood, stands for a portrait as neighborhood members and enterprise homeowners locally react to the of bombing of Iran.

(Jason Armond / Los Angeles Instances)

He has lived in Los Angeles since 2000, opening a few eating places. In 2017, he grew to become an American citizen, arriving at that momentous resolution whereas strolling in a Westwood cemetery.

“This shall be my remaining handle,” he thought.

Nonetheless, he couldn’t look away from the information earlier this 12 months when a collapse of the Iranian forex drove folks into the streets, sparking a brutal authorities crackdown that killed 1000’s of protesters.

When Farahanipour heard about Khamenei’s loss of life, he popped the cork from a champagne bottle and celebrated “the happiest second of my life.”

However like Saghatelian, he quickly started considering of Iraq.

Shortly after the collapse of Hussein’s ruling occasion, crowds looted authorities workplaces and cultural websites. Heavy infrastructure harm from the U.S. bombing led to continual and fixed failure of the electrical and water methods in main cities — making them nearly unlivable, particularly within the sweltering summers.

On the top of the sectarian struggle, components of Baghdad had been so riddled with impromptu militia checkpoints that many Iraqis began carrying two official-looking IDs — one real and the opposite a forgery with a final title and birthplace related to the opposite sect.

Selecting which to current, particularly in closely contested neighborhoods, was like tossing a coin together with your life within the stability.

“We don’t have a superb monitor file,” Faranhipour mentioned. “What number of American lives did we waste in Afghanistan? How a lot cash did we waste over there simply to interchange the Taliban with the Taliban?”

He’s praying the USA gained’t get slowed down once more.

“Hopefully the president and his crew know what they’re doing,” he mentioned. “They need to declare victory and withdraw.”