The USA and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes in opposition to Iran on 28 February 2026 – codenamed Operation Epic Fury (US) and Operation Roaring Lion (Israel) – concentrating on navy installations, nuclear enrichment services, and key officers together with Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei, who was assassinated within the opening hours.
Iran retaliated underneath Operation True Promise IV virtually instantly, extending the conflict’s geographic footprint to seven international locations inside 48 hours – Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq.
The 2-month marketing campaign price the USA roughly $25 billion, depleted crucial munition stockpiles at charges that analysts assessed would take three to 5 years to rebuild, and produced what the Worldwide Vitality Company referred to as the biggest oil provide disruption within the historical past of the worldwide oil market.
The consensus from CSIS, the ISW/AEI Essential Threats Venture, the Council on Overseas Relations, and the Soufan Centre is that the US achieved important tactical injury to Iran’s seen navy infrastructure however couldn’t attain underground infrastructure, remove the Strait of Hormuz menace, suppress proxy networks, drain reconstitution capability, or produce the political final result it sought.
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Operation True Promise IV: Iran’s Retaliatory Missile and Drone Marketing campaign
Iran launched over 500 ballistic missiles and a pair of,000 drones by Day 4 of the conflict, in accordance with Pentagon and CENTCOM reporting.
The pre-war Iranian ballistic missile arsenal stood at roughly 2,500 in accordance with Israeli intelligence estimates. The ISW/AEI Essential Threats Venture documented 95 Iranian strike waves underneath Operation True Promise IV by 4 April 2026.
Strikes hit all seven goal international locations within the opening 48 hours. The Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain sustained injury. Ali Al Salem and Camp Buehring in Kuwait had been struck. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Al Dhafra Air Base within the UAE, and Ain al-Asad Air Base in Iraq had been all hit – with at the very least 64 US service members sustaining concussive accidents at Ain al-Asad alone.
Some of the consequential strikes destroyed the AN/TPY-2 THAAD radar at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan – one in all solely 9 such radars in the complete US world stock, valued at $300 million. The Al Jazeera Centre for Research described this as “blinding US eyes within the Center East”.
The UAE reported 1,422 detected drones and 246 missiles between 28 February and eight March, accounting for roughly 55% of all recorded strikes throughout that interval.
By roughly 3 March, Iran’s ballistic missile launch charge fell roughly 90% and drone launch charges fell roughly 83%, in accordance with CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) claimed to have destroyed or rendered inoperable roughly 330 of Iran’s estimated 470 missile launchers.
Nonetheless, Iran pivoted to a sustainable drone-based attrition mannequin, stabilising each day strike charges at 190 to 392 drones per day. Iran claimed a tenfold improve in drone manufacturing capability throughout the conflict – a declare that, if even partially correct, suggests the attrition mannequin may very well be sustained indefinitely.
Iranian Munitions Structure: Fattah Missiles, Shahed Drones, and the F-5 Incident
Iran’s strike marketing campaign drew on three layers of its munitions structure – ballistic missiles for precision strikes in opposition to hardened targets, loitering munitions for sustained attrition, and cruise missiles for radar evasion.
The ballistic missile tier included the Fattah-1 and Fattah-2 – categorized by the Worldwide Institute for Strategic Research (IISS) as normal medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) regardless of Iran’s claims of hypersonic terminal speeds. The Kheibar Shekan encompasses a manoeuvrable re-entry car (MaRV), whereas the Emad and Ghadr-110 are Shahab-3 derivatives. The Sejjil is Iran’s solid-fuel MRBM. These had been used for high-value precision strikes in opposition to THAAD radars, blast shelters, and early warning methods.
The drone tier included the Shahed-136 – a piston-engine workhorse that shaped the spine of the attrition marketing campaign – the Shahed-238 jet-powered variant with GPS, electro-optical, and anti-radiation steerage choices, and the Hadid-110, a compact jet-powered design marking its first confirmed fight deployment.
In one of many conflict’s most exceptional tactical episodes, a manned Northrop F-5 Tiger II – a Sixties-era airframe – penetrated US and coalition air defences over Kuwait to bomb Camp Buehring throughout a concurrent saturation assault. The plane exploited a roughly 120-second detection-to-impact window by flying at very low altitude whereas air defences had been engaged with incoming drones and missiles.
Injury to US Navy Bases: 16 Websites Struck Throughout the Center East
A CNN investigation printed on 1 Might 2026 confirmed that at the very least 16 American navy websites – nearly all of US positions within the Center East – sustained injury throughout the conflict.
NBC Information reported that Iran struck over 100 targets throughout 11 bases in seven international locations. A number of websites had been rendered “all however uninhabitable” within the conflict’s early weeks in accordance with US sources. The Pentagon’s preliminary public statements that injury was minimal had been at appreciable odds with satellite tv for pc imagery and categorized injury assessments.
Gear destroyed throughout all websites totalled an estimated $2.3 to $2.8 billion, in accordance with Al Jazeera citing Pentagon information. Whole infrastructure restore prices exceeded $5 billion per AEI estimates. Fifth Fleet Headquarters repairs alone had been assessed at roughly $200 million.
Airbus Defence and House Pleiades Neo imagery confirmed strike injury at Al Dhafra Air Base within the UAE affecting gasoline storage, hangars, barracks, and medical services. The AN/FPS-132 early warning radar at Qatar was reported broken – a system valued at roughly $1.1 billion. Planet Labs satellite tv for pc imagery from 1 March and 6 March 2026 confirmed constructing and radome destruction on the Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain.
The Stars and Stripes evaluation concluded the conflict revealed basic vulnerabilities of the US hub-and-spoke basing structure within the Center East.
Patriot and THAAD Interceptor Depletion: The 114-to-1 Value Asymmetry
The conflict uncovered a structural vulnerability within the US and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) air defence structure – the unsustainable price ratio between Iranian offensive munitions and Western interceptors.
Within the first 4 days alone, US Patriot batteries fired 943 interceptors – equal to 18 months of Lockheed Martin and Boeing manufacturing facility manufacturing. GCC states collectively burned by way of roughly 86% of their mixed pre-war Patriot-family stock of roughly 2,800 rounds inside 5 weeks, in accordance with the Jewish Institute for Nationwide Safety of America (JINSA).
THAAD batteries expended roughly 198 interceptors within the first 16 days – roughly 40% of the complete US world stock of 534 rounds. Over the complete marketing campaign, the vary was assessed at 40 to 80% of all THAAD interceptors expended.
The price asymmetry is stark. A Shahed-136 drone prices between $20,000 and $50,000 to provide. A PAC-3 MSE interceptor prices $3.7 to $4 million – a ratio of 114-to-1 in Iran’s favour.
Defence analysts assessed three to 5 years could be required to rebuild interceptor stockpiles. CSIS titled its ceasefire evaluation “Final Rounds?” – a mirrored image of how deeply the marketing campaign drained strategic reserves that underpin Pacific deterrence in opposition to China.
The destruction of the AN/TPY-2 THAAD radar in Jordan – with extra websites within the UAE and Saudi Arabia broken – was described by the Al Jazeera Centre for Research as “blinding US eyes within the Center East”. The destruction compelled interception duties onto Patriot methods with already-depleted interceptors, compounding the disaster.
Operation Epic Fury: The US-Israeli Air Marketing campaign In opposition to Iran
The US-Israeli air marketing campaign delivered roughly 900 strikes within the first 12 hours, exceeded 3,000 targets by Day 10, and sustained a tempo of 300 to 500 targets per day thereafter, in accordance with CSIS’s marketing campaign evaluation.
The primary 100 hours price $3.7 billion in accordance with CSIS. The whole two-month marketing campaign price roughly $25 billion.
The marketing campaign destroyed or disabled roughly 120 air defence methods – about one-third of Iran’s pre-war complete, together with Russian-supplied S-300s and indigenous Bavar-373 batteries. At the very least 29 ballistic missile launch websites and 4 key manufacturing services had been broken. The three fundamental nuclear enrichment websites – Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan – sustained what the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Workers (CJCS) described as “extraordinarily extreme injury.” The standard Iranian Navy (Artesh) was largely destroyed, with 9 warships sunk on Day 1 alone.
US losses included 5 fighters downed throughout the marketing campaign – together with an F-15E Strike Eagle on 3 April – and 16 MQ-9 Reaper drones misplaced. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth claimed “complete air dominance” inside two weeks.
Nonetheless, a categorized intelligence evaluation discovered the nuclear strikes solely set Iran’s programme again by lower than six months relatively than eliminating it. Roughly 50% of Iran’s missile launchers remained intact in accordance with US intelligence in April 2026. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy retained roughly 50% of its pre-war belongings. The regime survived Khamenei’s decapitation – succession protocols produced a extra hard-line successor management drawn completely from the IRGC.
The CFR assessed the percentages of reaching all and even most marketing campaign aims as “distant”.
Iran’s Underground Missile Cities: Why US Bunker Busters Failed
Iran maintains roughly 30 underground missile bases constructed over a long time within the Zagros and Alborz mountain ranges, as detailed in CNN’s investigation of Iran’s underground missile cities.
These services sit at depths of 400 to 1,500 toes into granite bedrock, linked by over 100 interconnected tunnel methods. They characteristic automated rail transport and compartmentalised blast-resistant doorways. The GBU-57 Huge Ordnance Penetrator – the biggest bunker buster within the US stock – couldn’t attain them.
Operation Epic Fury struck 77% of seen tunnel entrances. US intelligence subsequently admitted the marketing campaign had overestimated injury by at the very least 50%. Iranian navy engineers cleared bombed entrances and restored websites to full operation inside hours utilizing pre-positioned excavation gear, as satellite tv for pc imagery confirmed.
The services featured redundant a number of exits, decoy entrances designed to soak up strikes, and transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) that might emerge from tunnel exits, fireplace from pre-surveyed positions, and return underground.
The Occasions of Israel reported that US intelligence assessed Iran can recuperate underground launchers and fireplace 1000’s of missiles. The Soufan Centre concluded that Iran’s remaining capabilities place Tehran to combat a conflict of attrition and threaten the area after any ceasefire. US intelligence undercounted Iran’s missiles by greater than 1,000.
On this vein, the underground missile metropolis community represents maybe the one most important consider figuring out the conflict’s strategic final result – it ensured that no air marketing campaign, no matter scale or precision, might disarm Iran’s retaliatory functionality.
The Strait of Hormuz Closure: Oil Disruption and International Financial Fallout
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz on 4 March 2026 utilizing a mix of warnings, mine-laying, ship seizures, and IRGC Navy swarm boat exercise.
By 10 March, 6.7 million barrels per day (bpd) had been faraway from world markets. By 12 March, the determine exceeded 10 million bpd. Brent crude surged previous $120 per barrel. The IEA confirmed this was the biggest provide disruption in oil market historical past.
The Pentagon informed Congress that clearing the Strait of mines might take six months, and solely after the conflict ends. Mine clearance underneath fireplace with an intact IRGC Navy was assessed as too harmful. Iran reportedly misplaced observe of a few of its personal mines – a element that underscores the indiscriminate nature of the denial technique.
Iranian drones shut down a 922,000 bpd ADNOC refinery on the Ruwais Industrial Advanced in Abu Dhabi. A Saudi Aramco processing plant with 550,000 bpd capability was additionally halted by strikes.
The conflict prolonged past navy targets into business and cloud infrastructure. Two Amazon Net Providers (AWS) information centres within the UAE and one in Bahrain had been struck – the primary time a state intentionally focused business cloud infrastructure in wartime, in accordance with Fortune. The Fairmont The Palm resort in Dubai, Jebel Ali port, and Kuwait Worldwide Airport had been additionally hit.
Iraq misplaced roughly $3 billion per day in oil export income – 90% of its nationwide funds. Capital Economics forecast a ten to fifteen% GCC GDP decline if the battle lasted past three months. International GDP losses had been estimated at $590 billion to $3.5 trillion.
Brookings, CSIS, and the Hudson Institute all concluded the Strait of Hormuz gambit uncovered the boundaries of what air energy can obtain in opposition to a mine-and-swarm naval denial technique in confined waters.
Uncommon Earth Export Controls and the US Munitions Manufacturing Disaster
China’s Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 61, efficient 1 December 2025, imposed the strictest uncommon earth and everlasting magnet export controls thus far – limiting seven crucial heavy uncommon earths: samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium.
China controls roughly 90% of worldwide uncommon earth refining capability. The US has no operational mine-to-magnet provide chain. Export licences had been largely denied to corporations with any affiliation to overseas militaries.
The dependencies run deep throughout crucial US munitions. Tomahawk cruise missile fin actuators require samarium-cobalt magnets for warmth tolerance throughout cruise flight. Joint Direct Assault Munition (JDAM) steerage kits use uncommon earth everlasting magnets. Every F-35 airframe comprises roughly 920 kilos of uncommon earth supplies. Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptors use uncommon earth parts for steerage and management.
The conflict burned by way of these weapons at extraordinary charges. Over 850 Tomahawks had been fired. Roughly 80% of the Joint Air-to-Floor Standoff Missile-Prolonged Vary (JASSM-ER) stock was expended. The 40 to 80% THAAD depletion compounded the disaster.
A 1 January 2027 federal mandate prohibits Chinese language-sourced uncommon earth magnets in any US navy platform – a deadline that, given the absence of a home mine-to-magnet provide chain, the West Level Trendy Conflict Institute described as a “wake-up name” for US navy functionality. Chatham Home assessed that the restrictions threaten Washington’s navy primacy.
Thus, the uncommon earth disaster constrains US rearmament at exactly the second Pacific deterrence necessities vis-à-vis China demand accelerated manufacturing. One can see how this dynamic – munitions depletion mixed with provide chain dependency on a strategic competitor – represents a structural vulnerability relatively than a short lived shortfall.
Publish-Ceasefire Dynamics: Iran’s Reconstitution and the Nuclear Query
The Alma Analysis Centre described the post-ceasefire interval as a race to rebuild Iran’s nuclear and missile array. The Hudson Institute titled its evaluation “Tehran Reloads”.
Iran retains as much as 70% of its pre-war ballistic missile arsenal. Underground manufacturing and storage services survived largely intact. Drone manufacturing capability is reconstituting quicker than Western intelligence can calibrate.
The nuclear query has shifted basically. The fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons died with Khamenei. The brand new IRGC-dominated management faces a strategic selection between sustaining standard deterrence and pursuing nuclear weaponisation. The Arms Management Affiliation assessed that the strikes might have strengthened the political case inside Iran for weaponisation relatively than weakened it – a strategic irony of the primary order.
CSIS and the Atlantic Council each observe CRINK acceleration within the post-ceasefire interval. China, Russia, and North Korea every present distinct capabilities Tehran can’t supply domestically, and US secondary sanctions have to date been unable to disrupt the community.
A number of GCC states blocked US base entry earlier than the conflict began in late January 2026. The US reportedly stonewalled Gulf state interceptor replenishment requests throughout the battle. Stars and Stripes and CSIS recognized this as a basic publicity of the constraints of the US hub-and-spoke basing structure within the Center East.
CNN reported on 2 Might 2026 that Iran mentioned renewed battle is feasible after rejecting a US peace proposal.
Evaluation
Small Wars Journal titled its post-war evaluation “A Strategic Blunder in 5 Dimensions” – a verdict shared in substance, if not at all times in language, by the main US and worldwide safety assume tanks. 4 components are more likely to drive the long-term postures of each the US and Iran:
The primary dimension is tactical. The US achieved air dominance and inflicted substantial seen injury. Nonetheless, underground infrastructure survived, the Strait of Hormuz remained contested, and Iran’s drone-based attrition mannequin proved sustainable.
The second is strategic. Nuclear enrichment websites sustained extreme injury, however the programme was assessed to recuperate inside six months. The decapitation of Khamenei produced a extra hard-line successor regime relatively than political collapse.
The third is financial. The $25 billion direct price is dwarfed by the $590 billion to $3.5 trillion in estimated world GDP losses, the biggest oil disruption in historical past, and the acceleration of de-dollarisation dynamics within the Gulf.
The fouth is industrial. Munitions depletion, mixed with uncommon earth dependency on China, has created a rearmament timeline that will not align with Pacific deterrence necessities. CSIS’s “Final Rounds?” framing captures the dimensions of this problem.
Provided that Iran retains 70% of its ballistic missiles, maintains purposeful underground manufacturing, and faces a weakened political restraint on nuclear weaponization, one can see how the conflict’s long-term strategic stability might favour Tehran’s reconstitution over Washington’s capability to re-establish deterrence.
Will probably be attention-grabbing to watch whether or not the post-ceasefire interval produces diplomatic lodging or merely a pause earlier than escalation. The structural components – CRINK deepening, uncommon earth constraints, interceptor depletion, and Iran’s tempo of reconstitution – counsel the latter is at the very least as probably as the previous.
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