The EU formally unblocked a €90 billion (£78 billion) mortgage for Ukraine on April 23 after Hungary and Slovakia dropped their opposition. This transfer came to visit per week after defeat in parliamentary elections introduced the 16-year tenure of Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, to an finish. He will probably be changed by Péter Magyar of the pro-Europe Tisza occasion.
However at a summit concurrently happening in Cyprus, EU leaders struggled to agree on a membership timeline for Ukraine. That is regardless of the distinctive tempo of the war-torn candidate nation’s accession-related reforms. The hesitation of EU member states additionally comes despite the fact that the bloc has prioritised its enlargement agenda since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
In the meantime, one other candidate nation, Montenegro, is making progress on becoming a member of the bloc. Ambassadors from all EU member states mentioned on April 22 that that they had determined to arrange an “advert hoc working occasion” to draft an accession treaty for the Balkan nation. The president of the European Council, António Costa, described this as “a giant step” in the direction of membership.
Montenegro needs to turn into the EU’s twenty eighth member by 2028, concluding a course of that started when it utilized almost twenty years in the past. It’s aiming to shut formal negotiations by the top of 2026 so the accession treaty can then be adopted and ratified by every of the EU’s 27 member states.
Nevertheless, regardless of this formal progress, there are reservations in regards to the high quality of the reforms Montenegro is finishing up to align with EU requirements. These reservations relate to the nation’s efforts to fight corruption, guarantee judicial independence and assure a free and pluralistic media surroundings.
The accession treaty is thus anticipated to incorporate intensive transitional preparations, a interval after accession throughout which a brand new member doesn’t absolutely take part in sure EU programmes and insurance policies. This can give Montenegro time to adapt.
European Union, 2025, CC BY-NC-ND
Formally, EU enlargement is a merit-based course of pushed by a candidate nation’s compliance with political, financial and authorized requirements. However politics play a job, too. That is showcased by the contrasting progress Ukraine and Montenegro have made in the direction of EU membership.
Montenegro’s small measurement and membership of Nato make consensus amongst member states on its accession comparatively simple to realize. The identical can’t be mentioned for Ukraine. Its bigger measurement, wartime context and the size of its potential accession make Ukraine a much more contentious choice for member states.
Politicisation of enlargement
The politicisation of the enlargement course of, the place particular person member states form the accession course of consistent with their home preferences, is maybe the primary issue explaining why the EU has struggled to duplicate Montenegro’s progress throughout different candidate nations.
Regardless of their readiness to maneuver ahead with opening negotiations, Ukraine and neighbouring Moldova’s formal accession progress has been stalled for a number of months. Selections associated to Ukraine’s EU membership, particularly, have been vetoed a number of instances by Orbán.
The outgoing Hungarian prime minister leveraged bilateral disputes with Ukraine to justify blocking progress in accession talks. He linked considerations over power safety, in addition to a disagreement over disrupted Russian oil provides via Ukraine, to the nation’s EU path. Orbán used these disputes to veto the opening of negotiations.
Even Montenegro could not get pleasure from a clean path to EU membership if Croatia continues to hyperlink bilateral points corresponding to maritime disputes to enlargement. The disagreement between the 2 nations primarily considerations the Prevlaka peninsula. This can be a strategically vital space, which controls entry to Montenegro’s solely deep-water bay and major naval base.
In response to Zvezdana Kovač of the Centre for Civic Training, an organisation that displays Montenegro’s progress in the direction of becoming a member of the EU, Croatia is a “manageable threat” in Montenegro’s accession course of. In a 2025 interview with the New Union Submit web site, she famous that Croatia’s responses “usually are not pushed by a strategic want to dam Montenegro” and it retains “a transparent curiosity” in having EU member states as its neighbours.
Vetoes pushed by bilateral disputes have contributed to disillusionment in some candidate nations. In North Macedonia, which first utilized for EU membership in 2004, Bulgaria’s continued veto over deep-seated language and identification disputes has helped convey to energy a authorities led by Hristijan Mickoski that now not prioritises accession in any respect prices.
The EU’s various responses to protests and its contrasting relations with governments in Georgia and Serbia, two different candidate nations, have additionally alienated many significantly in Belgrade.
Whereas the EU’s response to democratic backsliding in Georgia has been strict, concentrating on the ruling occasion by imposing visa restrictions for diplomatic passport holders, the strategy to Aleksandar Vučić’s authorities in Serbia has been extra cautious. Serbian opposition teams have reacted to this with dismay.
Andrej Cukic / EPA
If the EU sees enlargement as central to its safety, choices can’t threat being derailed by one or two member states. Shifting from unanimity to certified majority voting in enlargement-related choices would assist pace up decision-making within the Council.
However, on the similar time, the EU should guarantee it doesn’t admit nations that later fail to uphold its requirements – a lesson drawn from Hungary’s more and more authoritarian trajectory over the previous 16 years of Orbán’s rule.
Whereas Montenegro seems to be getting into the ultimate stage of its path to EU membership, disagreements over Ukraine’s timeline present that some member states haven’t basically shifted their strategy to utilizing enlargement as a geopolitical device.
For now, the EU is managing moderately than overcoming politicisation in its accession course of. This dangers an enlargement coverage that continues to be inconsistent and unreliable.
