Iran’s ongoing conflict with america and Israel has put its ballistic missile (BM)-centric defence posture within the highlight, testing its depth and its efficacy in real-time. Tehran constructed that posture over many years – investing in solid-fuel rocket growth, low-cost loitering munitions, and a decentralized command construction – and it has imposed significant prices on a US-led coalition, at the same time as Iran’s launch charges have declined sharply beneath strikes concentrating on its stockpiles.
Nonetheless, the army efficacy of Iran’s BM employment stays debatable. The strikes have generated strategic and perceptual results, however their tactical influence has been restricted in comparison with what typical air energy would ship.
For Pakistan, the parallels are instructive however not direct. Islamabad’s new era of solid-fuel BMs – the Fatah-2, Abdali Weapon System, and SMASH anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) – mirrors the early levels of Iran’s Fateh-series growth observe, the place a single core platform was iterated into longer-ranged, multi-role derivatives. Nonetheless, Pakistan’s employment doctrine, industrial base, and strategic context differ considerably, and people variations will form how far Islamabad can take this functionality.
This evaluation examines what Pakistan can draw from Iran’s BM growth and employment mannequin, the place the parallels break down, and what the Pakistan Military’s rising rocket-force construction indicators about Islamabad’s intent for this class of weapon.
The Efficacy of Iran’s Retaliatory Strikes
Following its conflict with Iraq within the Eighties, Iran was unable to rebuild its air power – and, with it, the offensive strike functionality that had as soon as led the area. The Islamic Republic of Iran Air Power (IRIAF) had operated superior Western fight plane, together with the F-14A Tomcat and F-4 Phantom, however US embargoes on spare components and new procurement – sustained over many years – successfully grounded Iran’s capability to mission typical air energy at scale.
That materials constraint – compounded by institutional mistrust between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the traditional army (Artesh) – formed how Tehran rebuilt its defence posture. In follow, the majority of Iran’s defence spending flowed to the IRGC, which turned the first automobile for projecting Iranian energy by armed proxies in Iraq, Yemen, and all through the Levant.
Nearer to dwelling, nonetheless, the IRGC-led posture meant Tehran wanted offensive strike methods it may produce indigenously – and on the scale and attain essential to credibly deter its principal regional rivals: Israel and, by extension, the US ahead presence within the Gulf. These methods took two main varieties: ballistic missiles and low-cost, one-way assault drones – most famously the Shahed-series.
Loitering munitions, together with the Shahed household, had already confirmed their worth within the Russia-Ukraine Warfare. Decrease in price and complexity than conventional guided munitions – akin to cruise missiles – and produced in far bigger numbers, loitering munitions have grow to be each a staple of contemporary offensive planning and a disruptor of defensive methods.
The challenges these weapons pose in subsequent theatres – the India-Pakistan theatre and the Gulf right now – affirm that defensive mechanisms have but to maintain tempo. The fee-exchange ratio strongly favours the attacker: Iran’s Shahed-136 drones price roughly $20,000–$35,000 every, whereas the Patriot and THAAD interceptors required to defeat them run into the thousands and thousands per spherical (RUSI).
That mentioned, one different development that emerged within the Russia-Ukraine Warfare – and recurred with arguably larger strategic significance in South Asia – was the employment of cruise and ballistic missiles at scale.
