As Ukrainian officers meet with US negotiators in Geneva with the potential for full three-way talks involving Moscow, Kyiv and Washington in early March, there’s a glimmer of hope that an finish to the battle could also be in sight. However the truth that after 4 years this stays a glimmer speaks volumes concerning the difficulties in ending the conflict.
Even Donald Trump, who promised to finish the conflict in sooner or later, has now stopped issuing ultimatums and deadlines to the combatants.
In what has turn out to be a conflict of attrition, discussions about vulnerabilities and losses are solely significant in comparison with these of the opposing facet. Reflecting on how both sides’s theories of victory modified over the 4 years helps to know the conflict’s general trajectory.
Russia’s preliminary plan for a swift knockout of Ukraine was foiled throughout the first few days of the invasion. As an alternative, it settled right into a battle of grinding the enemy down by gradual advances on the battlefield and debilitating assaults on the power infrastructure within the rear, with the expectation in Moscow that sooner or later Ukraine would throw within the towel.
However the query is whether or not Russia has sufficient manpower and financial sources for this technique.
Russia is lastly experiencing financial difficulties as a result of a mix of western sanctions and falling oil costs, which fell from over US$100 (£74) per barrel in 2022 to roughly $60 in 2025. In 2026, the Kremlin needed to elevate taxes and scale back its reliance on oil, whose share of Russia’s funds fell from 40% in 2019 to 25% in 2025. Maybe the Kremlin is starting to understand that this can not proceed endlessly.
However Russia’s weak point is relative to that of Ukraine. This is applicable to conflict losses: Putin believes that Ukraine’s manpower losses are increased than Russia’s (which flies within the face of what some western researchers estimate) and that Ukraine, with a a lot smaller inhabitants than Russia, has a lot much less endurance.
Ukraine’s principle of victory, in the meantime, has advanced from a perception in an outright navy victory in 2022–23, to simply attempting to exhaust Russia’s navy in 2025 through the use of the “wall of drones”. However because the Russian military had captured some key strongholds, equivalent to Siversk, Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole, Kyiv’s new defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov (the fourth for the reason that begin of the conflict), declared that Ukraine’s path to victory now was to kill 50,000 Russian troopers per thirty days. That’s greater than most estimates of Russia’s recruitment, which is believed to be round 30,000 per thirty days.
Western politicians and analysts have embraced this principle, arguing that Russia’s unsustainable losses justify Ukraine persevering with with the conflict with their help.
EPA/Maria Senovilla
However after 4 years, Kyiv’s place is hampered by the lack of the complete help of what was as soon as its key ally: Washington. The Ukraine frontline is being slowly however steadily compelled again and in 2025 for the primary time within the conflict there was no main Ukrainian offensive.
Kyiv’s finest hope is to freeze the battle alongside the present line of contact, get safety ensures from the west, be a part of the EU, and preserve strain on Russia by western sanctions. Sadly for Ukraine, there are points with each merchandise on this listing.
The scenario at house is difficult and funding from the west is declining, due to the US. In the meantime, its power infrastructure has been severely broken, there are ongoing points with unpopular mobilisations, and the nation’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has suffered a big blow from a significant corruption scandal involving his closest aides.
Nonetheless, crucially, Ukraine continues to be preventing and its finest hope now’s an financial collapse in Russia. Assaults on Russia’s oil business have been supposed to hasten that collapse, however Moscow’s destruction of Ukraine’s power grid has demonstrated its larger capability for escalation. This 12 months won’t be simple for Ukraine.
Europe’s place
For the reason that begin of the invasion, Europe’s splendid plan for serving to Ukraine win has not modified. It’s believed {that a} mixture of financial sanctions and navy help to Ukraine will finally trigger Russia’s financial collapse and navy defeat.
EPA/Marcin Obara
Aside from this there isn’t a European plan to finish the conflict, besides to attempt to stop Trump from putting a deal which might favour Russia and intestine Ukraine. For the most effective a part of a 12 months, the so-called coalition of the keen (Kyiv’s European allies led by France, the UK and Germany) has been speaking about post-war plans with itself.
However the irony is that – regardless of being Ukraine’s greatest donor – coalition nations have been excluded from negotiating with Russia, whose consent to any western navy deployment as a safety assure for Kyiv might be important.
No matter occurs, the EU must pay Ukraine’s payments, both to proceed the conflict or to cowl its post-war reconstruction. The EU’s promise to just accept Ukraine as a member would additionally require elevated funding over an indefinite interval.
Whose facet is the US on?
Underneath the Biden presidency, the US and Europe had the identical principle of victory. Nonetheless, since returning to energy in January 2025, Trump has compelled Europe to finance the availability of US navy gear to Ukraine. In the meantime, it has opened negotiations with Russia to finish the conflict.
The US push for peace stays a thriller. In any case, if the Ukrainians are keen to combat and the Europeans are keen to pay for it, it’s unclear why the US is so keen to finish a conflict that’s exhausting certainly one of its geopolitical rivals in Russia.
Maybe Trump genuinely needs to cease the killing. Or maybe he believes that if the conflict just isn’t stopped now, the eventual peace deal might be a lot worse for Ukraine and the west. Or perhaps it’s merely a matter of stopping “Biden’s conflict”. A conflict that Trump has little interest in and that he clearly feels is hampering his plans to do enterprise with Putin.
As with Gaza, a deal might be reached solely when the events concerned within the battle are exhausted and able to cease preventing. In these circumstances, Trump’s mediation might succeed. For now, nonetheless, both sides continues to be clinging to its imaginative and prescient of victory.
On its fourth anniversary, there’s hope that this can be the final 12 months of the conflict. Whereas all sides are rising more and more exhausted, it will likely be the “final mile” that issues most — who can muster the willpower and sources within the ultimate stretch to finish the conflict on their phrases.
