Transgender Shooters Commit Disproportionate Shares of Mass Public and Active Shooting Attacks—In 2024, at Least 12 Times Their Share of the Population – Crime Prevention Research Center

A broadly cited February 2024 report by Politifact claimed: “No proof of rising LGBTQ+ violent extremism or ‘trans terrorism.” A observe report by them in September 2025 that examined each the FBI’s definition of lively capturing assaults and the notion of mass shootings concluded: “Are trans folks ‘statistically’ extra vulnerable to commit gun violence? Knowledge reveals a unique image.” It appeared on the interval from 2018 to 2024 that we look at right here.

Sadly, these and comparable claims make a primary error: they appear solely on the share of assaults dedicated by transgender people and fail to regulate for transgender people’ share of the inhabitants. That’s an apparent statistical mistake. If a gaggle makes up simply 1 p.c of the inhabitants however commits 10 p.c of the assaults, nobody would dismiss that disparity just because the group accounts for “solely” 10 p.c of lively capturing assaults.

Others equivalent to Snopes conclude: “Mass shooters aren’t disproportionately transgender, opposite to claims.” However they compound the issue by utilizing a wider definition of shootings than the FBI makes use of.

For instance, the Gun Violence Archive compiles “mass shootings” that overwhelmingly contain gang fights over drug turf and, to a lesser extent, different crimes equivalent to robberies. Whereas these incidents could also be necessary to review, they differ essentially from shootings through which a person enters a location with the only purpose of murdering and injuring as many individuals as doable to generate publicity.

Mass public shooters repeatedly state their intention to homicide extra folks in order that they’ll get hold of much more consideration. Gang members and robbers, in contrast, act much more regularly and pursue totally totally different motives. By lumping collectively gang fights and robbers they’re making transgender assaults appear even rarer than they’re. Transgender attackers must be in comparison with different comparable sorts of assaults.

Totally different estimates place transgender people at various shares of the inhabitants, and researchers measure assaults in numerous methods (for instance, distinguishing between lively capturing assaults and mass public shootings). However no matter how one breaks down the info, transgender people commit these assaults at disproportionately excessive charges. As we talk about beneath, in 2024 transgender people dedicated lively capturing assaults no less than 12 occasions their share of the inhabitants and probably greater than 16 occasions their share.

The FBI’s lively capturing experiences deal with shootings that happen in public and don’t contain different crimes, equivalent to drug gang fights or robberies. Historically, the FBI has  categorized a “mass” killing because the homicide of 4 or extra folks, and tutorial research have used an identical definition. We use that very same definition (extra particulars are obtainable right here). We’ve now appeared on the numbers for each mass public shootings (lively shootings involving 4 or extra folks murdered) and lively shootings.

As we have now identified earlier than, transgender people are nicely over-represented when it comes to mass public shootings. There are three estimates of the proportion of adults who’re trans (CDC’s Habits Danger Issue Surveillance System (BRFSS) and Youth Danger Habits Survey (YRBS) finds 0.5% between 2017 to 2020, Gallup reveals 0.7% in 2021, and the Census places it at 1% in 2023). These numbers are clearly rising over time, so a median for 2018 to 2023 years would most likely overestimate the speed, however the common is 0.73%. Trans share of mass public shootings over the 2018 to 2025 interval is 6.2 occasions their share of the inhabitants. The Nashville Catholic College shooter in 2023 and the Membership Q assassin who recognized as nonbinary and used the pronouns they and them in 2022 had been transgender people.

Nonetheless, we have now now reviewed the FBI’s lively capturing experiences and recognized which of these assaults concerned transgender people. We carried out this evaluation in two methods: first, by relying solely on the FBI’s information on lively capturing instances; and second, by incorporating extra instances we compiled utilizing the FBI’s definition of lively shootings. As a result of it is a delicate subject, the first graphs we present listed below are based mostly on the FBI information on lively capturing instances.

The following graphs report the uncooked percentages of lively capturing assaults dedicated by transgender people and by others, each for all the 2018–2024 interval and damaged down by yr. Throughout the complete interval, transgender people account for two.5 p.c of the overall assaults, which can seem small at first look. Nonetheless, in 2024 their share rose sharply to 12 p.c. Some should describe that proportion as small, however in neither case do these uncooked figures alter for transgender people’ share of the inhabitants.

Utilizing solely the FBI information over all the interval, transgender people commit lively capturing assaults at 3.4 occasions their share of the inhabitants, and should you use the upper Census estimate that they make up one p.c of the inhabitants, it’s 2.5. Utilizing the CPRC’s expanded dataset of lively capturing instances, the estimate is decreased from 3.4 to 2.1 occasions their share of the inhabitants.

The graph on the very high of the web page reveals a pointy improve within the transgender share of lively capturing assaults in 2024, reaching greater than 16.3 occasions their share of the inhabitants. Even when one assumes the very best estimate of transgender people from the Census, that they make up 1% of the inhabitants, their share of lively capturing assaults in 2024 is 12 occasions their share of the inhabitants.

Once more, a lot of the discussions about transgender people dismiss it as a severe concern as a result of they solely look at their assaults as a share of whole assaults and don’t alter for transgenders’ share of the inhabitants. However as soon as one realizes that’s the solely approach to correctly analyze the info, no matter how one measures it—whether or not utilizing solely FBI information or the expanded dataset—lively capturing assaults dedicated by transgender people have gotten a major problem.

Listed here are the graphs utilizing the FBI information however assuming that one p.c of the inhabitants is transgender.

We’ll embrace the Excel file for the info later.

Here’s a checklist of trans shooters.

– Tumbler Ridge shooter was transgender, Jesse Van Rootselaar, 9 murdered, 27 injured

– Annunciation Catholic Church shooter recognized as transgender, Robin Westman, two murdered, 17 injured

– Nashville Christian shooter recognized as transgender, Aiden Hale, six murdered

– Lakewood Church shooter recognized as transgender, Genesse Ivonne Moreno, two injured.

– Colorado Springs nightclub shooter recognized as non-binary, Anderson Lee Aldrich, 5 murdered

– Denver shooter recognized as transgender, Alec McKinney (transgender) and Devon Erickson, one murdered, eight injured

– Aberdeen shooter recognized as transgender, Snochia Moseley, three murdered, shooter additionally killed

– Iowa highschool shooter transgender activist, Dylan Butler, two murdered, six injured

– Charlie Kirk’s murderer Tyler Robinson had a furry obsession and lived with transgender boyfriend 

– Trump’s tried murderer Thomas Crooks used they/them pronouns, had a deep curiosity in furries, and was exploring gender identification.