China’s 2025 Victory Day parade was greater than pageantry – it was an overt assertion of deterrence constructed round new courses of missiles, air-defence techniques, and autonomous platforms. On this Defence Uncut episode, the Quwa group parse what issues for Pakistan and the place procurement logic might shift within the coming years.
The New SAM Paradigm: HHQ-9C
The dialog opened with the HHQ-9C, a system that, even from visuals alone, signalled a generational change. The panelists noticed that the missile seems slimmer than the HQ-9B and probably sized for vertical-launch quad-packing – a kind issue aligned with trendy density and salvo necessities.
Aseem drew a agency line between the older “flagpole” interceptors and newer, compact effectors using massive boosters. “You see a smaller missile paired with an enormous, fats booster,” he stated. He pointed to “a hoop of dots close to the nostril” – small attitude-control thrusters – and defined why they matter: fins impose lag beneath excessive aerodynamic hundreds, however thrusters ship near-instant end-game authority for tighter terminal manoeuvres. The design logic implies two issues. First, accuracy and agility are displacing sheer vary because the decisive metric for layered air defence, particularly in opposition to cruise missiles and manoeuvring targets. Second, hit-to-kill or near-hit profiles permit for smaller warheads, which, in flip, help slimmer, extra agile missiles – and better packing density in VLS cells.
The panelists’ takeaway was easy: that is the type of missile structure Pakistan ought to prioritise subsequent – agility and end-game management will determine outcomes.
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PCL-191 and Manufacturing Actuality – By a Fatah Lens
The dialogue then shifted to China’s PCL-191. Aseem framed it as conceptually akin to Pakistan’s Fatah household – a truck-mounted launcher idea constructed for lengthy attain whereas retaining mobility and journal depth – however scaled to China’s longer-range drawback set. He contrasted the PCL-191’s payload and vary with Pakistan’s nearer adversary and implied that China’s necessities demand a “beefier” structure.
For Pakistan, the commercial lesson dominated. Quwa’s analysts argued that Islamabad will probably develop final-assembly capability at house and import core elements at quantity – “import all of the core inputs… in massive stockpiles and simply quickly assemble” – to maintain magazines full by a brief, intense battle cycle. The intention is to keep away from a brittle posture the place native bottlenecks or wartime logistics collapse journal depth when it issues most.
That method dovetails with a broader imaginative and prescient: leveraging potential Chinese language manufacturing choices in Pakistan to feed not solely Fatah-class munitions but in addition boosters and sub-assemblies for future SAM tasks. In sensible phrases, Beijing’s willingness to dump parts of manufacturing – even at export-grade ranges – would harden Pakistan’s provide chain with out ready on deep localisation of each core.
For background on Pakistan’s programme, see Quwa’s protection of the Fatah guided surface-to-surface missiles and the Fatah-4 land-attack cruise missile reveal.
Directed-Vitality and HPM – What’s Lifelike
China additionally showcased a layered counter-UAS stack constructed round lasers and high-power microwave (HPM) emitters. Aseem walked by three seen tiers – a big LY-1-class laser tailored from naval work to a truck, a smaller truck-mounted unit, and a 4×4 system – and assessed their probably goal units. The LY-1-scale system, he stated, isn’t restricted to small drones and will credibly have interaction greater missiles and UAVs. Export entry, nevertheless, is uncertain.
On HPM, his warning was direct. These emitters promise sector-wide results on FPV swarms, however “take a look at the microwave in your kitchen – there’s a Faraday cage,” he stated. Bigger drones can harden electronics and decouple propulsion from susceptible electrical motors, making HPM extra of a distinct segment counter-swarm software than a common resolution.
The panelists added that each the Pakistan Navy and Pakistan Air Power have signalled curiosity in high-energy lasers and HPM. Whereas LY-1-class exports are unlikely, China’s parallel message is that its potential to export superior techniques – or to help Pakistani tasks with optics, sensors, and sub-systems – is increasing. The sensible near-term consequence may very well be export-grade directed-energy tiers tailor-made to Pakistan’s cost-per-kill necessities.
FK-3000 and the SHORAD Refresh Pakistan Really Wants
The FK-3000 drew consideration for fusing a gun turret with dense packs of small, agile missiles – a design meant to hard-kill munitions at scale. Quwa’s analysts used the second to underline a long-running hole: Pakistan’s short-range air-defence layer is overdue for renewal. Each the Military and the Air Power have leaned on Koral/Krotale-lineage techniques for many years, and the necessity for an overhaul is evident. The implication is to discipline dense, cellular SHORAD round manoeuvre models and high-value websites, whereas the PAF focuses on medium-to-long-range protection and the broader territorial envelope.
Hypersonics: From Idea to Journal Depth
Among the many parade’s headline capabilities, the YJ-19 hypersonic cruise missile stood out. “That is the system I’m most enthusiastic about… hypersonic cruise missiles are tremendous tough to get proper,” Aseem stated, earlier than outlining the scramjet’s fragility – balancing interdependent shock constructions to keep away from “unstart” occasions that may flip and destroy the car. If China has operationalised a dependable hypersonic cruise missile for shipboard use, it might be strategically consequential.
The panelists’ strategic learn was equally blunt: Beijing seems assured sufficient to provide such weapons at scale, positioning hypersonic cruise missiles as a traditional deterrent software to interrupt sensors and air-defence cohesion throughout the primary and second island chains. They contrasted that stance with France’s strategic-deterrent framing, which suggests restricted annual output. China’s posture suggests the YJ-19 is designed for actual journal depth – a number of dozen per yr, not a token stockpile – to emphasize adversary defences by repeated, time-on-target salvos.
The implication for Pakistan is oblique however necessary. If hypersonic cruise missiles mature into repeatable, high-volume instruments for a significant energy, then regional air and naval defence architectures shall be designed round surviving mixed-profile salvos that mix HGVs, supersonic cruise, ballistic techniques, and hypersonic cruise. That, in flip, pushes Pakistan to put money into sensor variety, community resilience, and rapid-cueing kill chains quite than counting on a single class of interceptor.
Platforms and Enablers: J-35 and Y-20
Serial-production J-35s – in air-force and naval varieties – sign pragmatic readiness and, finally, export intent. The J-35’s naval prototype particulars, together with a forward-fuselage bay that will suggest a retractable probe on provider variants, raised questions on export and configuration splits down the road. For Pakistan, the near-term relevance is much less about acquisition and extra about how the regional air image will change as China fields a brand new stealth fighter in numbers with trendy networking and sensor fusion.
On tankers and airlift, Quwa’s analysts relayed long-standing conversations inside the PAF about changing IL-78s – plane acquired in “as-is” situation as a stopgap to study aerial refuelling. Probably the most direct match, a number of officers famous, could be the Y-20, which may cowl each transport and tanker missions. The barrier is availability – Beijing should fill its personal necessities first – however as soon as China begins exporting strategic-impact techniques at scale, Y-20 entry turns into a logical Pakistani ask. Till then, choices stay constrained by availability and price, with incremental enhancements more likely to come from upgrades to current property and restricted new-build acquisitions.
What This Means for Pakistan
4 through-lines emerge from the parade and the dialogue.
1) Pivot interceptor design. New-build air defence ought to transfer to HHQ-9C-style structure – compact, extremely agile effectors with end-game management – and densify the short-to-medium layer the place saturation assaults shall be determined. The FK-3000’s mixed-armament logic is a helpful pointer for SHORAD refresh and counter-drone density.
2) Inventory for a brief, intense struggle. Magazines matter greater than rhetoric. Pakistan’s near-term actuality is to assemble quick from imported cores whereas scaling remaining meeting at house. When possible, Islamabad ought to channel Chinese language manufacturing facility help into dual-use propulsion and booster traces that serve each Fatah-class rockets and SAM tasks – a hedge in opposition to wartime logistics shocks. This can be a sensible path to sustaining quantity with out overpromising localisation timelines.
3) Purchase directed-energy by economics. Directed-energy and HPM ought to be judged by value per kill, not hype. Exportable, supportable tiers – paired with optics and sensing – can push down the price of defeating drones and loitering munitions, whereas bigger lasers stay aspirational within the close to time period.
4) Plan for hypersonic salvos. Deal with hypersonic cruise missiles because the pacing risk shaping regional air and naval defence design. If Beijing is comfy demonstrating a system it believes it may possibly construct in numbers, Pakistan should assume the area will see extra frequent, mixed-profile salvos designed to exhaust layered defences and blind vital nodes. That assumption ought to drive sensing resilience, networking, and kill-chain redundancy in each main procurement over the following decade.
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