Territorial concessions will be central to any Ukraine peace deal, and to Russia’s long-term plan

If the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, meet in Istanbul on Could 15, territory – and who controls it – might be excessive on their agenda.

Putin supplied to start out direct talks between Russia and Ukraine at a press convention on Could 11. Donald Trump pushed Zelensky to just accept this supply in a social media put up, saying that “Ukraine ought to comply with this, IMMEDIATELY.”

The Ukrainian president, nonetheless buoyed by a gathering with the British, French, German and Polish leaders that known as for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, agreed shortly afterwards.

Russia has stated it needs to give attention to the Istanbul communique of March 2022 and a subsequent draft settlement that was negotiated, however by no means adopted, by the 2 sides in April 2022.

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These 2022 negotiations targeted on Ukraine changing into a completely impartial state and on which nations would supply safety ensures for any deal. In addition they relegated discussions over Crimea to separate negotiations with a ten-to-15-year timeframe.

Russia makes use of the phrase “the present scenario on the bottom” as thinly disguised code for territorial questions which have change into extra contentious over the previous three years. This pertains to Russian positive aspects on the battlefield and the unlawful annexation of 4 Ukrainian areas in September 2022 (along with Crimea, which Russia additionally illegally annexed in 2014).

Russia’s place, as articulated lately by the nation’s overseas minister, Sergey Lavrov, is that “the worldwide recognition of Crimea, Sevastopol, the DPR, the LPR, the Kherson and Zaporozhye areas as a part of Russia is … crucial”.

That is clearly a non-starter for Ukraine, as repeatedly acknowledged by Zelensky. There might, nevertheless, be some flexibility on accepting that some components of sovereign Ukrainian territory are below short-term Russian management. This has been prompt by each Trump’s Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, and Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko.

Black Sea’s strategic worth

The territories that Russia presently occupies, and claims, in Ukraine have various strategic, financial and symbolic worth for Moscow and Kyiv. The areas with the best strategic worth embody Crimea and the territories on the shores of the Azov Sea, which offer Russia with a land hall to Crimea.

The worldwide recognition of Crimea as a part of Russia, as apparently prompt below the phrases of an settlement hashed out by Putin and Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, might develop the areas of the Black Sea that Russia can declare to legally management.

This might then be utilized by the Kremlin as a launchpad for renewed assaults on Ukraine and to threaten Nato’s jap maritime flank in Romania and Bulgaria. Any everlasting recognition of Russia’s management of those territories is, due to this fact, unacceptable to Ukraine and its European companions.

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Donetsk and Luhansk are of decrease strategic worth, in contrast with Crimea and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia areas. Nonetheless, they do have financial worth due to the substantial assets positioned there. These embody among the mineral and different assets that had been the topic of a separate deal which the US and Ukraine concluded on April 30.

In addition they embody Europe’s largest nuclear energy plant in Zaporizhzhia and a big labour drive amongst their estimated inhabitants of between 4.5 million to five.5 million individuals who might be crucial to Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction.

Past the strategic and financial worth of the illegally occupied territories, the symbolism that either side connect to their management is essentially the most important impediment to any deal, given how irreconcilable Moscow’s and Kyiv’s positions are. For either side, management of those territories, or loss thereof, is what defines victory or defeat within the battle.

Putin could possibly declare that some territorial positive aspects in Ukraine for the reason that begin of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 are a victory for Russia. However even for him any compromise that will see Russia quit territory that it has conquered – usually at exceptionally excessive price – could be a dangerous gamble for the steadiness of his regime.

Something lower than the whole restoration of the nation’s territorial integrity in its 1991 borders would indicate recognition of defeat within the battle for Ukraine. This might critically threaten the steadiness of the Zelensky authorities, whose political programme rests on precisely the premise of a return to the 1991 borders.

Lengthy-term penalties

Because of this, the Ukrainian management has change into hostage to its personal data technique, which has positioned the “return of all territories” on the high of the factors for victory. It is a aim broadly shared amongst Ukrainians, based on a ballot performed by the Razumkov Heart in March 2025. However it is going to be exhausting to realize.

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Aside from the potential home fall-out from any territorial compromises that Ukraine could also be pressured to make, there may be one more reason why the territorial query has change into so intractable.

Past any strategic, financial and symbolic worth that the occupied Ukrainian territories maintain from the Kremlin’s perspective, management over territory has all the time been an instrument for Russia to pursue its broader geopolitical agenda of exercising affect over its neighbours – from Moldova, to Georgia, Armenia and Ukraine.

It’s also necessary to keep in mind that Russia’s territorial claims in Ukraine have progressively expanded since 2014. Till September 2022, when it annexed the opposite 4 areas, Russia laid declare to Crimea solely.

There is no such thing as a assure that any territorial concession from Kyiv now would put a everlasting finish to Moscow’s territorial expansionism. It’s due to this fact worrying that Trump envoy Witkoff, in an interview with the Breitbart information web site, reiterated the US view that the 2 sides want to seek out compromises on who controls which territories.

Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine was not a battle over territory as such, however was a part of Moscow’s agenda to revive the sphere of affect that it misplaced on the finish of the chilly battle. This agenda is much from completed.

The technique of each Moscow and Washington to give attention to territorial penalties might result in a ceasefire. But it surely won’t tackle the elemental challenge of how you can cope with a vengeful and revisionist autocracy on Europe’s doorsteps.