The U.S. proposal to ascertain a navy presence at an airbase close to Damascus is a welcome signal of deepening cooperation with Syria’s new authorities, however it might be inadequate to safe regional U.S. pursuits. A Damascus presence ought to complement—not exchange—the U.S. partnership with the Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, which stays important to stopping a resurgence of the Islamic State, or ISIS, and constraining Iranian exercise.
The ISIS problem is concentrated in northeastern Syria, the place detention services maintain about 9,000 ISIS fighters and members of the family. Practically 85 % of the fighters are held in two prisons close to Hasakah and Shaddadi. These services are weak targets, as proven by the 2022 Hasakah jail break that took two weeks to comprise, even with U.S. air and intelligence help. The SDF, aided by U.S. funding and coaching, has carried the first burden of bodily securing these websites for greater than a decade.
However the menace extends past the northeast’s detention websites. In March, an ISIS suicide bomber attacked a church in Damascus, killing 25 and injuring 63. Syrian authorities not too long ago disrupted two ISIS plots focusing on President Sharaa and arrested greater than 70 ISIS suspects in nationwide raids. And the In January, ISIS-inspired assault in New Orleans—together with a number of arrests of ISIS-inspired People in current months—illustrates the group’s continued means to radicalize people far past Syria. These developments underscore why sustaining strain on ISIS and supporting native companions stays important.
America ought to proceed to construct on the “by, with, and thru” partnership that has made the SDF the best counter-ISIS pressure in Syria. Sustaining this relationship—by coaching, intelligence sharing, and help to detention operations—is one of the simplest ways to stop ISIS from reconstituting. It additionally alerts to regional companions that america stays dedicated to a steady transition in Syria fairly than stepping again prematurely.
On the similar time, Washington should push for better worldwide burden-sharing in managing detained ISIS fighters. Solely 36 international locations have repatriated any nationals from northeast Syria, whereas 21 have but to start. Extended detention will increase the chance of radicalization and creates a long-term humanitarian and safety problem for the area. Iraq’s repatriation of roughly 25,000 residents—about 80 % of Iraqis detained in Syria—demonstrates what dedicated motion can obtain. America ought to apply the identical diplomatic urgency it makes use of in negotiating legal deportation agreements to safe fiscal contributions and speed up repatriation efforts, easing strain on the SDF and decreasing the long-term menace posed by these populations.
Broader counterterrorism goals additionally rely on stopping Iranian rearmament of Hezbollah, which might destabilize the area. Israeli intelligence studies point out that the group has begun restoring provide strains by Syrian territory. Though Iran and Hezbollah have suffered setbacks—and Russia’s diminished function has additional constrained their working area—Tehran continues to hunt alternatives to rebuild its networks.
This makes it very important for america to maintain its partnership with the SDF, which, in line with the Lead Inspector Common for Operation Iraqi Freedom, at present controls most Iraqi-border crossings in japanese Syria—positioning it as the primary line of protection in opposition to the movement of Iranian weapons into Lebanon. Past the SDF partnership, Washington ought to work with the Syrian authorities and Israel to disrupt these flows. Washington’s provision of intelligence, deconfliction, and diplomatic coordination to the Syrians and Israelis can complicate and disrupt Iran’s efforts. Strengthening these channels of cooperation with the brand new Syrian authorities is particularly essential now as Syria seeks to consolidate management and reveal its independence from Tehran.
Syria’s shift away from Iran and Russia and towards better cooperation with Western companions presents a strategic alternative. The federal government has a vested curiosity in limiting extremist teams, restoring safety, and stopping Syria from turning into a conduit for Iranian affect. Its choice to hitch the World Coalition to Defeat ISIS demonstrates a willingness to work with worldwide companions, and the Inside Ministry has already carried out joint counter-ISIS missions with U.S. troops. This alignment of pursuits stays nascent, but it surely affords an actual probability for america to advance each counterterrorism priorities and regional stability.
ISIS jail breaks and Iranian rearmament are preventable, however averting them requires sustaining the SDF partnership, advancing worldwide burden sharing, and countering Iranian weapons flows. Leaving earlier than Syria can stand by itself is not going to finish America’s involvement within the nation—it would merely set the stage for a extra expensive return.
Thomas Bergeson, a retired U.S. Air Drive lieutenant basic, served as deputy commander of U.S. Central Command. He participated within the Jewish Institute for Nationwide Safety of America’s 2023 Generals and Admirals program.
Jonah Brody is a coverage analyst at JINSA.
